Grains Report - Tuesday, Dec. 27

assorted food in sacks

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WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were higher last week on more forecasts for some extreme cold in US Wheat areas by the end of last week and as fighting escalates in Ukraine. Much more moderate temperatures are in the forecast for this week. The cold weather could produce some Winterkill in US production areas to make a small crop even smaller. Temperatures will be very cold and blizzard conditions are forecast due to high winds blowing the snow and probably the ground into the atmosphere. The demand for US Wheat in international markets has been a disappointment all year and currently is hindered by low prices and aggressive offers from Russia. Ukraine is also looking for new business for its crops and Russia is aggressive in the world market as it looks for cash to fund the war. The demand for US Wheat still needs to show up and there is still not enough demand news to help support futures.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get scattered snow. Temperatures should average below normal. Northern areas should see scattered snow showers. Temperatures will average below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered snow showers. Temperatures should average below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to up with objectives of 785 and 815 March. Support is at 752, 738, and 731 March, with resistance at 782, 799, and 809 March. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to up with objectives of 882 and 913 March. Support is at 841, 829, and 822 March, with resistance at 879, 885, and 896 March. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to up with objectives of 935 and 938 March. Support is at 913, 901, and 894 March, and resistance is at 935, 957, and 961 March.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was higher last week and trends remain up on the daily charts and are also up on the weekly charts. The weekly export sales report showed improved net sales. There is not much going on in the domestic market right now. Most Rice farmers were not paying much attention to the market as they are involved in other pursuits such as hunting. Demand in general has been slow to moderate for Rice for both exports and domestic uses. Congress included support payments of two cents per pound in its financing bill for the next year and the bill should be signed by President Biden. At least some traders expect selling interest to develop this week in response to the support payments as farmers could become more willing sellers of cash Rice.
Overnight News: The Delta should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be near normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are up with objectives of 1850 January. Support is at 1780, 1776, and 1760 January and resistance is at 1805, 1820, and 1835 January.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats closed higher last week despite ideas of less demand and the potential for USDA to raise ending stocks estimates in the next WASDE reports. Demand for US Corn remains muted and forecasts for only light rains in southern Brazil and Argentina were seen instead of the bigger rains forecast the previous day. Brazil has been hanging on but Argentina has suffered through some extreme drought.. Corn prices are still hurt by a general lack of demand. Corn is still finding some support on a lack of farmer selling. Weak demand overall for US Corn remains a big problem for the market. There are increasing concerns about demand with the Chinese economic problems caused by the lockdowns creating the possibility of less demand as South America has much better crops this year to compete with the US for sales. China is now moving rapidly to open the economy and allow people to move around with no lockdowns so the demand could start to improve. South American prices are currently close to or above than those in the US.
Overnight News: Japan bought 177,500 tons of US Corn.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to up with objectives of 690 March. Support is at 660, 653, and 651 March, and resistance is at 668, 674, and 677 March. Trends in Oats are up with objectives of 373 March. Support is at 350, 344, and 337 March, and resistance is at 3671, 372, and 380 March.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans closed about unchanged last week, with Soybean Meal lower and Soybean Oil higher. There were forecasts for widespread light showers in Argentina and southern Brazil over the weekend. Drier weather is the forecast for this week for southern Brazil and Argentina that could stress crops in both areas again, Central and northern Brazil remain in very good condition with scattered showers reported. Production potential for the Brazil is called very strong even with potential problems and losses in the south. Argentine production ideas continue to drop with the drought as planting is delayed and the crops already in the ground are stressed. There was news that China has started to ease Covid restrictions after some demonstrations by the Chinese people. Ideas that Chinese demand will improve. Export demand for the US is improved. Domestic demand should be strong for Soybeans as the crush spreads are strong and provided crushers with a big profit margin for their crushing
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed Support is at 1460, 1454, and 1451 January and resistance is at 1489, 1493, and 1512 January. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 448.00, 446.00, and 442.00 January and resistance is at 460.00 465.00, and 469.00 January. Trends in Soybean Oil are up with objectives of 6730 January. Support is at 6470, 6400, and 6200 January, with resistance at 6700, 6710, and 6860 January.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil closed lower last week despite worries about supply as demand seemed to be mostly quiet. Futures were sharply higher today on news of new Chinese demand potential. Ideas of better demand and less production are still around, with production falling due to seasonal factors. Hopes for improved demand from China were reported. China has tried to relax some Covid restrictions so that the economy can start to function again. However, new outbreaks of the virus are being reported and infection rates are rapidly increasing. Ideas are that supply and production will be strong, but demand ideas are now weakening and the market will continue to look to the private data for clues on demand and the direction of the futures market. Demand reports for the current month were stronger yesterday. Canola was a little lower. Ideas that Chinese demand can remain weak due to increased outbreaks of Covid there were negative. Demand for export has been less. Farmers are holding tight to harvested supplies. Reports indicate that domestic demand has been strong due to favorable crush margins. Production was much improved this year on better weather during the Summer.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 854.00, 844.00, and 835.00 January, with resistance at 870.00, 873.00, and 887.00 January. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 3670 and 3500 March. Support is at 3790, 3750, and 3700 March, with resistance at 3910, 3990, and 4020 March.


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