Grains Report - Tuesday, April 19


General CommentsWheat markets were higher yesterday as the western US Great Plains remained too dry and crop conditions were very poor and as the war continued in Ukraine with little if any ideas of a cease fire mentioned. Trends are up in all three markets on the daily and weekly charts due to the poor growing conditions for the crops in the ground. Ports are closed in Ukraine and Russian shippers and exporters are not offering in part due to sanctions but mostly due to the war and the chance to lose ships due to reports of mines in the Black Sea placed by the Russians. However, there were reports of Russian Wheat appearing in the world market late last week. Ukraine can rail the exports to the EU for shipment but the amount that can be moved is very limited.

Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated to scattered showers. Temperatures should average near to below normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers. Temperatures will average below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers. Temperatures should average below normal.

Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are up with objectives of 1157 and 1280 May. Support is at 1094, 1079, and 1045 May, with resistance at 1156, 1164, and 1200 May. Trends in Kansas City are up with no objectives. Support is at 1156, 1106, and 1090 May, with resistance at 1200, 1242, and 1292 May. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to up with objectives of 1222 and 1325 May. Support is at 1145, 10128, and 1116 May, and resistance is at 1207, 1222, and 1235 May.

Stock photos by Vecteezy


General Comments: Rice was sharply higher and held the weekly trading range. Trends are up on the daily charts and sideways on the weekly charts. The cash market is showing that domestic mill business is around everywhere in light volumes. Producer sales are reported to have been way ahead of average early in the marketing year so stocks on hand in first hands are reported to be lower than normal. Growing conditions are considered good for crops right now although it has been a little cold.

Overnight News: The Delta should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal.

Chart Analysis: Trends are up with objectives of 1650 and 1716 May. Support is at 1591, 1575, and 1563 May and resistance is at 1628, 1644, and 1684 May.


General Comments: Corn closed higher yesterday and trends are up on the daily and weekly charts. Oats closed lower after making new highs for the move, but trends are still up on the weekly charts. Corn futures made new highs for the move as the market deals with less due to the war in Ukraine and the planting intentions of US farmers for the coming growing season. The potential loss of Ukraine exports of Corn makes the world situation tighter and could be enough to keep Corn prices trending higher for now. The ports remain closed and Ukraine can rail out to the EU in limited amounts. Russia is also a Corn exporter and no product is moving from either country at this time China has a Covid outbreak again and has closed some cities and some ports in response. The moves are harsh but China has a no tolerance policy about the pandemic. The closings of cities and ports will hurt the economy as people can’t make or spend money and hurt imports as there will be fewer places to unload cargoes. However, China has been a very big buyer of US Corn over the last couple of weeks as they need the feed and Ukraine cannot currently offer any supply. President Biden has said he will permit the use of higher ethanol blends in gasoline this Summer in an effort to control inflation and high fuel prices.

Overnight News:

Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are up with objectives of 819 May. Support is at 793, 783, and 768 May, and resistance is at 7822, 828, and 834 May. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 741, 733, and 730 May, and resistance is at 766, 800, and 811 May.


General Comments: Soybeans and the products were higher. Soybean Oil trends are up and there are increasing concerns in the US about the cold and wet Midwest weather keeping farmers from the fields for planting. President Biden has said he will support expanded use of bio fuels this Summer in an effort to control higher fuel prices. More sanctions are now threatened for Russia due to what the world is seeing in Ukraine right now. There are still worries about Chinese demand because of Covid lockdowns there. China has not been mentioned as a Soybeans buyer in the daily sales reports from USDA for the last couple of weeks. Supplies available to the export market from South America remain limited. Both Ukraine and Russia are major exporters of Sunoil and control about 80% of the market combined but no Sunoil is moving from either country these days. China has been a major buyer of US Soybeans this year after a very slow start due to the problems in South America. They are buying for this year and already have booked a large amount of new crop Soybeans to cover future needs. Ideas are that the Chinese economy could slow down due to the Covid lockdowns there and cause the country to purchase less Soybeans in the world market. The world situation is still tightening as Brazil and Argentina harvested less Soybeans.

Overnight News: Unknown destinations bought 123,650 tons of US Soybeans.

Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up with objectives of 1720, 1790, and 1880 May. Support is at 1681, 1652, and 1646 May, and resistance is at 1736, 1759, and 1768 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 453.00, 448.00, and 442.00 May, and resistance is at 472.00 480.00, and 485.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are up with objectives of 8220 and 8550 May. Support is at 7860, 7720, and 7660 May, with resistance at 8120, 8240, and 8360 May.


General Comments: Palm Oil was closed today. Less than expected Malaysian inventories and on hopes for better demand from India keep the market supported. A new Covid outbreak is reported in China and cities and infrastructure has been shut down, including some airports and water ports. The economy could slow down and affect demand. Production from Malaysia is expected to increase as well as the Covid lockdowns finally go away and as the weather is good for production. Indonesia is once again making moves to cut the availability of Palm Oil for export as it manages high internal prices. Canola was higher on the price action in Chicago.  It is reported to be very dry and has been cold for planting. There are ideas of reduced Sunflower export potential from Russia and Ukraine. The market is worried about South American production as well. Canada produced a very short crop of Canola last year so supplies are tight. Futures prices are still in a trading range.

Overnight News:

Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 1157.00, 1141.00, and 1133.00 May, with resistance at 1175.00, 1178.00, and 1183.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are up with objectives of 6740 July. Support is at 6150, 6020, and 5910 July, with resistance at 6530, 6650, and 6770 July.

Disclaimer: A Subsidiary of Price Holdings, Inc. – a Diversified Financial Services Firm. Member NIBA, NFA Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Investing in ...

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