Grains Report - Thursday, Sept. 9

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat was lower as StatsCan showed higher than expected ending stocks for Wheat. The US weekly export inspections was poor once again. The demand has not been seen here, so the Winter Wheat markets have not been able to do more than hold in a range. Dry weather in southern Russia as well as the northern US Great Plains and Canadian Prairies remains a supportive feature in the market although the US and Canada are seeing some showers this week. Crop size estimates in Russia have been reduced and domestic Russian prices are above world prices. The Russian weather has been good for production in northern and western areas but is still trending dry in southern areas and into Kazakhstan. The weather in China and Europe is wet and there is potential for reduced quality in Europe. Europe is expecting top yields in some areas but less yield in others and parts of eastern Europe and northern Russia are expecting strong yields.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be near to above
normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will be near normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers or dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 706, 705, and 693 December, with resistance at 733, 745, and 754 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 697, 6985, and 677 December, with resistance at 720, 730, and 735 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 890, 880, and 875 December, and resistance is at 915, 927, and 937 December.

Photo by Sandy Ravaloniaina on Unsplash

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed little changed yesterday but the price action has been weak. It was a low volume day yesterday as traders are also waiting for the UDA production reports out later this week. Harvesting continues in Louisiana and Texas. A delayed harvest is expected in Mississippi and Arkansas. Initial yield reports and quality reports have been acceptable to many in Texas and are called good in Louisiana. The harvest pace is expected to be slow due to ongoing showers in both regions and farther into the north. Ideas of average yields are also heard in Arkansas and Mississippi. Growing conditions have been mixed at best with many areas getting too much rain.
Overnight News: The Delta should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be near to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1320, 1308, and 1299 November, with resistance at 1348, 1358, and 1368 November.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was slightly lower on ideas of increasing production and less demand. The trade widely expects USDA to show improved yields in its production estimates this Friday, and planted area is expected to increase as well Demand ideas are dropping due to less than hoped for demand at the current time and now because of the effects of Hurricane Ida. The weekly export inspections report showed how the US export pace was affected by the hurricane, but this is expected to be temporary and last only a few weeks. The hurricane moved onshore in Louisiana and did extensive damage to the state, including the grain export elevators. The state also lost electrical posser in all affected areas and it will take some time for that to get fixed. Damage assessments for the elevators is expected this week. The weather remains a feature of the trade but is less important now as the Corn is filling kernels and starting to mature. Ideas are that Brazil Corn production could be less than 85 million tons so reduced production estimates are expected in coming reports. Oats were lower yesterday on speculative profit-taking as the weather remains bad for production even with the crop near or in harvest.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are down with objectives of 488 December. Support is at 507, 500, and 494 December, and resistance is at 530, 543, and 548 December. Trends in Oats are mixed to down with objectives of 485 and 468 December. Support is at 492, 480, and 467 December, and resistance is at 502, 512, and 518 December.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans closed a little higher and the products were mixed to lower as traders prepared for the USDA reports on Friday. The destruction of Gulf port facilities along the Mississippi River near New Orleans was still a factor in the trade. The hurricane moved onshore in Louisiana a week ago and did extensive damage to the state, including the grain export elevators. The state also lost electrical posser in all affected areas and it will take some time for that to get fixed. Damage assessments for the elevators is expected this week. Demand has held together despite the export problems but the export inspections report showed that very little is getting shipped right now as the exporters scramble to find other ports to send the grain. The weekly export sales report was also expected to be poor as many US exporters have had to pull offers for now Demand is still weaker than expected overall. USDA will release its production and supply and demand reports this week and the trade widely expects USDA to show more production due to better yields and stable to increased planted area.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1270, 1269, and 1241 November, and resistance is at 1306, 1309, and 1325 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are down with objectives of 325.00 October. Support is at 331.00, 328.00, and 325.00 October, and resistance is at 340.00, 344.00, and 349.00 October. Trends in Soybean Oil mixed. Support is at 5700, 5660, and 5480 October, with resistance at 5850, 6010, and 6090 October

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil closed lower today on what was called speculative profit-taking. Demand has shown signs of returning to the market. Exports were not strong last month and have shown improvement in the data so far this month. There are ideas of tight supplies due to labor problems. There are just not enough workers in the fields due to Coronavirus restrictions. Production has also been down to more than offset the export losses so prices have trended higher. Canola closed higher yesterday as the harvest is getting ready to start. The market was higher despite the StatsCan report that showed more than expected ending stocks. Damaging weather continues in the Canadian Prairies and northern Great Plains but some showers are in the forecast for this week. Production ideas are down due to the extreme weather seen in these areas. It remains generally dry and warm in the Prairies. The Prairies crops are in big trouble now due to previous hot and dry weather and the rains are coming too late.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 868.00, 857.00, and 8530.00 November, with resistance at 905.00, 909.00, and 940.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 4370, 41270, and 4150 November, with resistance at 4530, 4600, and 4660 November.

Disclaimer: A Subsidiary of Price Holdings, Inc. – a Diversified Financial Services Firm. Member NIBA, NFA Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Investing in ...

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