Grains Report - Thursday, Oct. 2
WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat closed a little higher yesterday on the rallies in Corn and Soybean. Increased US and large world exporter supplies were seen in the USDA reports. Reports of stronger Russian prices continue. Russian sources told wire services that producers there are set to reduce offers and production due to low prices and problems with the government. This now seems to be happening. Sovecon reduced its export estimate for Russia for the first time after increasing it in previous reports. It remains too dry in Winter Wheat areas and too wet in Spring Wheat areas of Russia, but crop size ideas are expected to increase due to reports of big yields in Spring Wheat growing areas. A French government report showed plenty of production but lower quality. Rains have been good in the northern Great Plains and Canada, but western areas have been a little too dry for best yield potential and the northern Plains had hot and dry areas earlier in the year. Southern hemisphere crops appear to be good and Australia estimates that production this year will be high and potentially a record.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down. Support is at 502, 499 and 493 December, with resistance at 532, 535, and 543 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down. Support is at 484, 478, and 472 December, with resistance at 498, 507, and 515 December. Trends in Minneapolis are not available.
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RICE
General Comments Rice was lower and closed at new lows for the move again yesterday. The market remained in a trading range. The harvest is wrapping up in Texas and southern Louisiana. Harvest is starting to wrap up in Mississippi and Arkansas. Yields and quality are mixed, but quality appears better than a year ago. Chart trends are turning down again on the charts. The cash market has been slow with low bids from buyers in domestic markets and average or less export demand. Louisiana reports good but not great yields and quality. Milling quality of the old crop Rice remains below industry standards and it takes more Rough Rice to create the grain for sale to stores and exporters.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to down. Support is at 1088, 1076, and 1064 November and resistance is at 1126, 1145, and 1159 November.
CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was slightly higher yesterday in recovery trading. USDA discovered larger than expected September stocks on Tuesday and as the coming harvest has outweighed strong demand ideas until now. Trends are mixed as the crop is maturing and the harvest is starting to expand. There are ideas that US production might not be super strong due to disease such as rust to offset the demand losses. Temperatures should average near to below normal this week and there are forecasts for scattered showers. Most of the western Midwest has seen adequate or greater precipitation and production ideas are high. Areas east of the Mississippi River have been very dry for the last month or more. Demand for Corn in world markets remains moderate to strong. Oats were a little lower.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to down. Support is at 411, 408, and 405 December, and resistance is at 418, 423, and 42 December. Trends in Oats are down. Support is at 301, 295, and 289 December, and resistance is at 316, 320, and 324 December.
SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were higher yesterday after a lower open based on a US government shutdown and on ideas of weak demand against strong production. The USDA stocks report was a little bullish and was part of the reason for the rally. Also, the market appeared o be a little oversold. There are still no indications that China was changing its trade policies. Forecasts call for no rain to be seen in the Midwest this week. Cool and dry weather has been seen recently in the Midwest. The dry weather could hurt pod fill and bean size. Argentina has removed taxes on Soybeans exports and China immediately bought up to 40 cargoes. China has not bought US Soybeans yet and traders are worried that demand for the new crop will be a lot less this year. Good growing conditions continue in the Midwest with cool and mostly dry weather in the forecast. Prices are still higher in Brazil, but China and other buyers are still buying there for political reasons. Export demand remains less for US Soybeans as China has been taking almost all the export from South America due to the Trump tariff regime.
Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 994, 981, and 970 November, and resistance is at 1024, 1029, and 1036 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down. Support is at 271.00, 268.00, and 265.00 December, and resistance is at 275.00, 278.00, and 282.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 4920, 4890, and 4770 December, with resistance at 5110, 5220, and 5390 December.
PALM OIL AND CANOLA
General Comments: Palm Oil futures were higher today on reports of weaker production and strong export demand and on the price action in Chicago. Canola was higher after opening lower. Concerns remain about demand potential. The Canadian government is moving now to support farmers in the face of the Chinese demand loss and also in the face of the Trump tariffs. Trends are mixed to down on the daily charts and on the weekly charts.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are down. Support is at 596.00, 590.00, and 584.00 November, with resistance at 630.00, 640.00, and 653.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down. Support is at 4320, 4200, and 4160 December, with resistance at 4480, 4530, and 4580 December.
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