Grains Report - Thursday, Oct. 28

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat closed higher yesterday and trends are still up in all three markets. Ideas that the US will have good demand for Wheat as the rest of the northern hemisphere is short production this year. Dry weather in southern Russia as well as the northern US Great Plains and Canadian Prairies remains a supportive feature in the market although the weather has become old news. The Russian weather has been good for production in northern and western areas and is finally starting to improve in southern areas and into Kazakhstan in time for the next crop. Siberian Spring Wheat conditions have been very good. Europe is expecting top yields in some areas but less yield in others and parts of eastern Europe and northern Russia are expecting strong yields. European quality is a problem due to too much rain in some areas and not enough in others. Speculators keep talking about inflation and are buying commodities for an inflation trade.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions or isolated showers. Temperatures should trend from below to above normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers or dry conditions. Temperatures will trend from below to above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers or dry conditions. Temperatures should trend from below to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to up with objectives of 770 and 781 December. Support is at 744, 736, and 729 December, with resistance at 767, 769, and 7876 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to up with objectives of 787 December. Support is at 767, 764, and 761 December, with resistance at 790, 794, and 7800 December. Trends in Minneapolis are up with no objectives. Support is at 1008, 994, and 980 December, and resistance is at 1032, 1047, and 1050 December.

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RICE
General Comments: Rice was higher in recovery trading but held to the trading range of the previous day. Short term down trends are on the charts but the chart show limited potential for more selling to be effective and ideas are that a bottom could come with the current test of support. Ideas are that demand is not yet strong enough to take up the supply available to the market. The crop has been largely harvested in all states. Yield reports and quality reports have been acceptable to many in Texas and are called good in Louisiana. The reports have been good in both Arkansas and Mississippi although there have been some milling problems as milling yields have been generally low.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions or isolated showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with objectives of 1322, 1320, and 1292 November. Support is at 1326, 1320, and 1308 November, with resistance at 1340, 1347, and 1360 November.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats closed higher again yesterday. Oats were higher on a lack of supply available to the market from the northern US Great Plains and the Canadian Prairies while Corn is still finding some support from strong weekly export sales and strong ethanol demand. Trends are up on the daily charts for both markets. Traders keep talking about new demand for the market from exporters and noted that the demand for ethanol production was very strong. Demand will be an increasing feature in the trade moving forward as the harvest moves to its halfway point. Initial yield reports have been mixed but good, with some lower yields reported due to disease but some higher than expected yields reported in western areas. Farmers are reported to be limited sellers at best. Most of the elevators along the Mississippi are exporting again which is good news for nearby demand. There are a lot of ideas that production and planted and harvested area will be significantly less next year due to the lack of fertilizers available and the cost of production. The Oats market knows that supplies will continue to be tight due to a drought in the northern Great Plains and Canada. There will not be much in the way of high quality Oats for consumers to buy in the coming year.
Overnight News: Ethanol production was 1.106 million barrels per day last week, from 1.096 million the previous week and 941,000 barrels per day last year. Ethanol production used 110.2 million bushels of Corn, from 109.2 million the previous week and 98.3 million the previous year. Ethanol stocks are now 19.9 million barrels, from 20.1 million the previous week and 19.6 million last year.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to up with objectives of 564 December. Support is at 548, 540, and 529 December, and resistance is at 566, 578, and 582 December. Trends in Oats are up with objectives of 731 and 792 December. Support is at 686, 670, and 649 December, and resistance is at 720, 726, and 732 December.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans closed higher yesterday but the products were mixed, with Soybean Oil lower and Soybean Meal higher. Ideas of strong demand from China were supportive. There was one new sales announcement to China this week. Mexico also bought US Soybeans. The weekly charts still show downtrends for all three markets, and the daily chart trends are mixed. Harvest has moved past the half way point for Soybeans and a harvest low might be seen during the second half of the harvest. However, the low will probably not be as low as the previous low seen a few weeks ago. Reports indicate that farmers are limited sellers at best. Gulf port elevators are coming on line and export sales and exports are increasing. Planting and initial crop development is going very well in Brazil. It has been dry in Argentina and panting could be slower there when the time comes.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1227, 1216, and 1208 November, and resistance is at 1249, 1258, and 1267 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to up with objectives of 341.00 December. Support is at 323.00, 320.00, and 314.00 December, and resistance is at 334.00 338.00, and 341.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 6050 and 5900 December. Support is at 6060, 5920, and 5850 December, with resistance at 6200, 6360, and 6400 December.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was lower yesterday and today along with Chicago Soybean Oil as supply concerns continue even with slow exports as reported by the private services. India was the major importer as the country reduced import taxes. It has also reduced import taxes now for Soybean Oil and Canola Oil and this has caused some demand worries for Palm. The weekly chart trends are up. There are ideas of tight supplies due to labor problems. There are just not enough workers in the fields due to Coronavirus restrictions. Production has also been down to more than offset the export losses so prices have trended higher. Canola closed higher once again yesterday on bad production ideas. November was the leader to the upside as processors and other industry take protection in futures. Trends are up on the daily charts. Farmers are bullish and reluctant to sell and would rather work in the fields. The weekly chart trends are turning back up. Production ideas are down due to the extreme weather seen in these areas.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are up with objectives of 1021 November. Support is at 953.00, 942.00, and 929.00 November, with resistance at 984.00, 990.00, and 996.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 4930, 4820, and 4740 January, with resistance at 5070, 5090, and 5220 January.

Disclaimer: A Subsidiary of Price Holdings, Inc. – a Diversified Financial Services Firm. Member NIBA, NFA Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Investing in ...

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