Grains Report - Thursday, Nov. 11
WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat closed higher again yesterday as the world market has held strong and chart trends are turning up again. Ideas are that the US will have good demand for Wheat as the rest of the northern hemisphere is short production this year. Offer volumes are down from both Russia and Europe. Dry weather in southern Russia as well as the northern US Great Plains and Canadian Prairies remains a supportive feature in the market although the weather has become old news. The lack of production has reduced the offers and Russia plans to announce sales quotas for next year very soon. The Russian weather has been good for production in northern and western areas and has recently improved in southern areas and into Kazakhstan in time for the next crop. Siberian Spring Wheat conditions have been very good. Europe is expecting top yields in some areas but less yield in others and parts of eastern Europe and northern Russia are expecting strong yields. European quality is a problem due to too much rain in some areas and not enough in others.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get some showers over the middle of the week. Temperatures should average near to above normal. Northern areas should see some showers over the middle of the week. Temperatures will average near to above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions but showers are possible over the middle of the week. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to up with objectives of 807, 817, and 860 December. Support is at 780, 773, and 763 December, with resistance at 807, 812, and 818 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to up with objectives of 824, 854, and 865 December. Support is at 796, 785, and 774 December, with resistance at 824, 830, and 836 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to up with objectives of 1096 and 1177 December. Support is at 1028, 1015, and 1005 December, and resistance is at 1060, 1086, and 1094 December.
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RICE
General Comments: Rice was higher again yesterday in part in response to the USDA reports and inflationary expectations. Weekly chart trends are sideways but imply futures could test resistance at the 1400 area basis the nearest futures contract in the near term. USDA increased yield estimates and production and made some changes to demand that left overall demand unchanged for increased ending stocks estimates of 35.2 million cwt. The market had been bracing for reduced demand and a more significant increase in ending stocks. The crop has been largely harvested in all states. Yield reports and quality reports have been acceptable to many in Texas and are called good in Louisiana. The reports have been good in both Arkansas and Mississippi. Milling yields have been generally low in both states.
Overnight News: The Delta should get showers late this week. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are up with objectives of 1399 and 1446 January. Support is at 1368, 1359, and 1350 January and resistance is at 136, 1414, and 1426 January.
CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed higher in reaction to the USDA reports and Oats closed higher in recovery trading. The reports were really not all that bullish, but the ethanol demand was exceptional and strong ethanol demand is expected to be reported this week. The reports for Corn showed increased production but increased ethanol and industrial demand to offset the production increases and more. There were fears of a bearish report as production was expected to increase a little bit and demand could get cut. But demand for export and for ethanol consumption has been great. Corn has relatively tight supplies as farmers are harvesting and not selling. Demand will be an increasing feature in the trade moving forward as the harvest moves to completion sometime this month. Initial yield reports have been mixed but good. Most of the elevators along the Mississippi are exporting again which is good news for nearby demand. There are a lot of ideas that production and planted and harvested area will be significantly less next year due to the lack of fertilizers available and the cost of production.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to up with objectives of 626 December. Support is at 563, 555, and 548 December, and resistance is at 573, 582, and 586 December. Trends in Oats are up mixed. Support is at 725, 707, and 702 December, and resistance is at 775, 780, and 786 December.
SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Oil closed higher yesterday in reaction to the USDA reports and on reports of export demand for Soybean Oil. Soybean Meal closed a little lower. USDA showed less than expected production and yield estimates and also cut export demand. Harvest is starting to wrap up for Soybeans and a harvest low might have been hit this week. Reports indicate that farmers are limited sellers at best. Gulf port elevators are coming on line and export sales and exports are increasing. Planting and initial crop development is going very well in Brazil. It has been dry in Argentina but rain has been falling this week and conditions for planting and initial growth are improving.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1208, 1181, and 1168 January, and resistance is at 1241, 1243, and 1261 January. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 341.00, 334.00, and 330.00 December and resistance is at 347.00 350.00, and 357.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 5680 December. Support is at 5850, 5750, and 5700 December, with resistance at 6050, 6140, and 6240 December.
CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was a little lower today in consolidation trading. Futures are still caught in a trading range. Support still comes from ideas that supply and demand are in balance or supplies are short. The weekly chart trends are up. There are ideas of tight supplies due to labor problems. There are just not enough workers in the fields due to Coronavirus restrictions. Production has also been down to more than offset the export losses so prices have trended higher. Canola closed higher again in part in rection to the USDA report. Farmers are bullish and reluctant to sell because of the sharp reduction in Canola production in Canada this year. The weekly chart trends are up.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are up with objective of 1010.00, 1048.00, and 1058.00 January Support is at 979.00, 961.00, and 949.00 January, with resistance at 1004.00, 1008.00, and 1020.00 January. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 4820, 4710, and 4630 January, with resistance at 4970, 5080, and 5220 January.
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