Grains Report - Thursday, July 3

WHEAT
General Comments: All three Wheat markets closed higher again yesterday as growing and harvesting conditions were very good. Minneapolis especially moved to new lows for the move before fining much buying interest. Strong yields are reported for crops in HRW and SRW areas. USDA on Monday said that planted area was 47.478 million acres and that the quarterly stocks were 851 million bushels. Both were a little above the average trade estimate. It is hot and dry to the south, but the north saw rains last week to support Spring Wheat development. There are still reports that the weather has reduced production potential in Ukraine and Russia. Russia is forecasting a large reduction in Wheat production for the coming year. Winter crops in the Great Plains are reported to be in good condition, and Spring Wheat crops in the northern Great Plains and into Canada are generally in good condition.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to up Support is at 535, 521 and 508 September, with resistance at 568, 572, and 582 September. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 523, 516, and 504 September, with resistance at 550, 565, and 578 September. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to up. Support is at 613, 603, and 592 September, and resistance is at 638, 646, and 655 September.

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RICE
General Comments: Rice was slightly lower yesterday on follow through selling from the higher than expected planted area estimate from USDA and in part due to poor demand ideas for US Rice. USDA on Monday estimated Rice planted area at 2.647 million acres and Long Grain at 2.010 million acres. Weaker Asian prices are a drag on US futures, but the US trade depends much more on South American competition that has actually been offering less. Chart trends are down on the daily charts. The cash market has been slow with mostly quiet domestic markets and average export demand. Milling quality of the Rice remains below industry standards and it takes more Rough Rice to create the grain for sale to stores and exporters. Rice has emerged in most growing areas now. Condition has been rated as good and the ratings by USDA are above last year.
Chart Analysis: Trends are down. Support is at 1290, 1278, and 1266 September and resistance is at 1328, 1369, and 1392 September.


CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was higher yesterday along with the rallies in Wheat and the soy complex.. USDA on Monday estimated planted area at 95.203 million acres, a high amount although less than the average trade expectation. The stocks were 4.464 billion bushels, slightly less than trade expectations. Variable heat and some showers are expected in the Midwest this week. A severe drought is seen in central Nebraska and moderate drought extends east in a corridor into the Chicago area, but the drought area is shrinking. The rest of the Midwest has seen adequate or greater precipitation. Demand for Corn in world markets remains strong but has turned weaker in the last few weeks. Oats were higher on follow through buying seen in response to the StatsCan stocks and planted area reports last week and a weaker US Dollar.
Overnight News: Unknown destinations bought 150,000 tons of US Corn.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to up. Support is at 400, 396, and 393 September, and resistance is at 419, 425, and 432 September. Trends in Oats are mixed to up. Support is at 360, 349, and 339 September, and resistance is at 388, 394, and 400 September.


SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Oil were sharply higher yesterday, with Soybean Oil rallying on ideas that foreign oils will not get tax cuts for import to the US and us in biofuels. Soybean Meal was also higher. There was talk that the president will make a major announcement on Friday, and rumors say that it will be a new deal with China. Lower priced offers from Brazil in the world market are still important to the US price action. Soybean Meal was a little lower as the Trump administration is moving to curtail the use of Chinese used cooking oil and Brazilian tallow in the green fuel mixes for biofuels. USDA said that the quarterly stocks were 1.008 billion bushels an that planted area was 83.380 million acres. The stocks were higher than expected and were bearish. Planting were roughly in line with trade expectations. Forecasts for good growing conditions in the Midwest and as cheaper prices reported from Brazil are still being heard, and the Midwest will turn warm and wet after hot conditions were reported over the weekend. The market could remain under pressure as Brazil basis levels have been under pressure the last few weeks and prices in world markets for Brazil Soybeans are now less than those from the US. Export demand is in its seasonal doldrums. Export demand remains less for US Soybeans as China has been taking almost all the export from South America.
Overnight News: Unknown destinations bought 195,000 tons of US Soybean Meal and 226,000 tons of US Soybeans.
Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up. Support is at 1017, 1005, and 983 August, and resistance is at 1055, 1068, and 1072 August. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 271.00, 268.00, and 265.00 August, and resistance is at 287.00, 291.00, and 294.00 August. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 5150, 5080, and 4920 August, with resistance at 5600, 5720, and 5840 August.


PALM OIL AND CANOLA
General Comments: Palm Oil futures were higher again today on reports of stronger demand from India. Ideas that current increased production levels mean higher inventories in MPOB monthly data are still around. Canola was higher again in recovery trading. Trends are mixed on the daily charts and are turning down on the weekly charts. The weather has generally been dry for planting and crop development in the Prairies with warm and dry weather around lately.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are up. Support is at 683.00, 679.00, and 665.00 November, with resistance at 740.00, 752.00, and 764.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 3960, 3870, and 3810 September, with resistance at 4120, 4210, and 4270 September.


More By This Author:

Softs Report - Wednesday, July 2
Grains Report - Tuesday, July 1
Softs Report - Monday, June 30

Disclaimer: A Subsidiary of Price Holdings, Inc. – a Diversified Financial Services Firm. Member NIBA, NFA Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Investing in ...

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