Grains Report - Thursday, July 29
WHEAT
General Comments: Winter Wheat markets were higher yesterday as HRS closed much higher with the winter market in tow. It is still forecast to be hot and dry in the Great Plains and Canadian Prairies for the next couple of weeks. The market is hearing about too wet weather in China and Europe and dry conditions in southern Russia and Kazakhstan. Europe is expecting top yields as are parts of eastern Europe and northern Russia. It has been very cold in South America and the winter crops are in trouble in Brazil and Paraguay. US White Winter Wheat production is also being hurt by hot and dry weather. World prices might have bottomed and should start to move higher, supporting Wheat futures markets in the US.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near normal. Northern areas should see mostly isolated showers. Temperatures will be above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 666, 658, and 648 September, with resistance at 700, 718, and 724 September. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 631, 619, and 613 September, with resistance at 660, 674, and 686 September. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 870, 859, and 849 September, and resistance is at 909, 944, and 948 September.
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RICE
General Comments: Rice closed higher as traders anticipate weaker production as the harvest gets started in Texas and southern Louisiana. Both areas have been wet and cloudy and average at best yields are expected. Ideas of average yields at best are also heard in Arkansas. The market expects smaller production this year due to reduced planted area and some weather extremes seen through the growing season to date. Growing conditions have been mixed at best with many areas getting too much rain. Rice areas have generally been wet. Export demand has been disappointing and Asian prices are trending lower.
Overnight News: The Delta should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be near to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to up with objectives of 1366, 1372, and 1398 September. Support is at 1344, 1340, and 1334 September, with resistance at 1362, 1371, and 1380 September.
CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was a little higher as bad US weather battled weaker than expected demand. The growing conditions in the US are highly variable and not likely to produce trend line yields. Traders are reducing yield estimates from the USDA report of 179.5 bushels per acre to more like 174 bushels per acre and ideas are that more adverse weather could drive yields lower. No one is talking much about increasing yield estimates right now. Ideas are that Brazil Corn production will be less than 90 million tons so reduced production estimates are expected in coming reports. The weekly export sales reports have been less than expected and have created reasons to sell futures. ADM said yesterday that it expects higher bio fuels consumption as the US continues to open its economy and people get on the road again. Oats were higher once again. Canadian Oats areas and those in the northern Great Plains remain too hot and dry. Longer range forecasts released by NWS call for warmer and drier weather for many important US growing areas this Summer.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed.. Support is at 545, 537, and 535 September, and resistance is at 564, 568, and 5972 September. Trends in Oats are up with objectives of 483 September. Support is at 462, 455, and 450 September, and resistance is at 470, 473, and 476 September.
SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Oil were higher as Crude Oil also moved higher. Soybean Meal was lower on spreads against Soybean Oil.. There are many areas that do not have good Soybeans in the US. Soybeans conditions in central production area are often too wet and have suffered. The weather forecasts changed to wetter and cooler and the crop needs dry conditions and some heat . Minnesota and northern Iowa and the Dakotas have been very hot and dry but Iowa got very beneficial rain last week. Forecasts call for warmer weather this week in the Midwest and northern Great Plains, and it should generally be dry. Warmer and drier outlooks are offered through at least the end of this month. The longer range forecasts from NWS call for warmer and drier than normal conditions for most Soybeans areas of the US.
Overnight News: Unknown destinations bought 132,000 tons of US Soybeans.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1391, 1382, and 1354 August, and resistance is at 1450, 1480, and 1492 August. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 351.00, 347.00, and 341.00 August, and resistance is at 361.00, 371.00, and 375.00 August. Trends in Soybean Oil mixed. Support is at 6570, 61440, and 6380 August, with resistance at 6760, 6820, and 6970
CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil futures were sharply lower on what was called speculative long liquidation. The private surveyors showed a little less demand for the current month in reports issued this week. Canola closed lower on what was called speculative selling. Trends are still up longer term but are mixed short term and weather concerns continue. It remains generally dry and is turning warmer in the Prairies. The showers last week have a chance to be very beneficial as the Prairies crops are in big trouble now due to previous hot and dry weather.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 856.00, 844.00, and 836.00 November, with resistance at 906.00, 932.00, and 949.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are up with no objectives . Support is at 4290, 4200, and 4140 October, with resistance at 4480, 4720, and 4780 October.
Midwest Weather Forecast: Isolated showers north and west, showers and storms south and east. Temperatures should average near normal.
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