DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-Jul 27
For the week ended Jul 20, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soymeal and
soyoil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 233.2 0.0 5421.4 7996.8 3345.6 11.2
hrw 42.1 0.0 1083.3 2320.7 657.1 0.0
srw 58.8 0.0 1464.2 1552.6 907.7 11.0
hrs 76.3 0.0 1773.2 2265.4 1155.1 0.2
white 48.0 0.0 1012.4 1715.7 554.9 0.0
durum 8.0 0.0 88.3 142.4 70.9 0.0
corn 314.2 335.8 40059.6 60600.5 3812.4 4866.3
soybeans 198.5 544.6 52764.7 59539.0 2605.4 5458.5
soymeal 159.8 114.0 12230.7 11410.7 2007.5 1105.2
soyoil 2.1 0.0 125.8 691.8 31.2 3.8
upland cotton -18.7 80.6 13958.8 15700.7 2571.8 2476.0
pima cotton 0.3 4.4 336.4 479.5 34.7 11.2
sorghum 38.3 121.0 2657.6 6965.2 755.2 881.2
barley 0.0 0.0 16.3 15.5 16.3 0.0
rice -0.5 15.6 1942.8 2933.4 162.2 206.3

WHEAT

General Comments: Wheat markets were sharply lower yesterday as the war between Russia and Ukraine calmed for the second day. It is certain that there will be no grain deal soon for exports through the Black Sea and any export from the Danube will be difficult if not impossible. Ukraine will still be able to ship via land through the EU. It is unlikely that any ship owner or ship insurer will take the chance on any passage of Ukrainian grain through the Black Sea, and maybe not for Russia, either. The world access to Wheat from at least one and perhaps both countries is a lot more restricted. Weather forecasts call for drier weather for the northern Great Plains and Canadian Prairies and some areas will be real hot. Canada is now suffering potential crop losses due to dry weather.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers. Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 694, 689, and 680 September, with resistance at 737, 751, and 757 September. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 853, 842, and 828 September, with resistance at 902, 930, and 946 September. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 878, 866, and 842 September, and resistance is at 912, 948, and 961 September.

RICE

General Comments: Rice closed lower again yesterday in correction trading after news late last week that India will stop Rice exports for the foreseeable future. India will not allow Rice exports except for Basmati for now because of too much rain on some the crops and not enough for other areas. Northern areas are too wet and southern areas are too dry. India is the largest exporter of Rice in the world so it was big news and one that implies that a sharp increase in world price is now possible. Growing conditions are very in southern growing areas and the overall new crop price strength has not been good so far, but new crop is rallying strongly now due to the Indian news. There are some reports of initial harvest going on in southern areas. The weather is still good for crop development. Export demand has been uneven and was poor in the weekly reports released last week.
Overnight News: The Delta should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1553, 1535, and 1510 September and resistance is at 1598, 1631, and 1636 September.

CORN AND OATS

General Comments: Corn was lower again yesterday on weather forecasts that remain mostly dry for the Midwest for the next couple of weeks but with cooler temperatures after this week and as the war in Ukraine calmed for the second day. There were showers and storms in northern and eastern parts of the Midwest yesterday to help drive prices lower. The crops are reported to be in mostly good condition now but need rain constantly to maintain the condition due to the lack of soil moisture from three months of drought that ended at the end of June. A return to hot and dry weather now could greatly impact yields in a bad way. Cooler temperatures after this week will help, but the Corn still needs rain and the lack of rain is more important. Russia has bombed the port of Odessa this week and also attacked facilities along the Danube River in an effort to keep Ukraine from exporting. Ukraine can still export over land via the EU but this entails additional costs. Demand for US Corn in the world market has been very low and domestic demand has been weak due to reduced Cattle and other livestock production. The Brazil Corn harvest is underway and so export prices for Corn from Brazil are getting relatively cheap and Brazil is getting the business.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 522, 515, and 502 September, and resistance is at 546, 564, and 573 September. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 425, 414, and 398 September, and resistance is at 439, 453, and 460 September.

SOYBEANS

General Comments: Soybeans were mixed, with nearby months higher and new crop months a little lower on weather forecasts that call for very warm and dry conditions for the Midwest for this week but cooler temperatures with no or at least very little rain next week. It rained in northern and eastern parts of the Midwest yesterday Soyeban Meal was higher and Soybean Oil was lower.. Soybean Oil was lower as the war in Ukraine calmed for the second day. Ukraine is a major Sunoil exporter with a 25% share of the world market. Russia had been bombing Odessa and bombed facilities along the Danube River although it did not bomb anywhere yesterday. Most longer-range maps indicate the potential for dry weather. Temperatures are expected to be above normal this week but closer to normal next week. Ideas are that the top end of the yield potential is gone but severe damage has not been reported yet but is becoming possible in some areas. Reports indicate that bio fuels demand for Soybean Oil is very strong despite the moves in Washington to keep bio fuels demand at more moderate levels and is pushing domestic demand for Soybeans. Brazil basis levels are still low, and the US is being shut out of the market for most importers. Brazil is still selling a lot of Soybeans to China and other countries. Brazil has a very good crop, but the additional Soybeans grown in Brazil will be partially wiped out by the losses in Argentina.
Overnight News: Unknown destinations bought 256,000 tons of Soybeans.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are up with objectives of 1552 and 1600 August. Support is at 1501, 1474, and 1440 August, and resistance is at 1548, 1560, and 1583 August. Trends in Soybean Meal are up with objectives of 469.00 and 486.00 August. Support is at 452.00, 444.00, and 439.00 August, and resistance is at 465.00, 468.00, and 471.00 August. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 6960, 6760, and 6660 August, with resistance at 7280, 7340, and 7400 August.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL

General Comments: Palm Oil was lower yesterday in sympathy with Chicago. The market remains in a trading range but held support. Ideas are that export demand has improved as the private sources reported at 10.8% increase in exports for the month to date earlier this week. Even so, many are bearish on demand as the Chinese economy remains sluggish. Canola was higher on Chicago price action and on dry Prairies growing conditions. Drier weather is generally forecast for the Prairies.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to down with objectives of 787.00 and 753.00 November. Support is at 796.00, 793.00, and 779.00 November, with resistance at 838.00, 855.00, and 857.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 4290 October. Support is at 4040, 3950, and 3830 October, with resistance at 4160, 4210, and 4270 October.

Midwest Weather Forecast Mostly dry. Temperatures should average above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
July
75 Sep 100 Sep
30 Sep
95 Aug

August
75 Sep
100 Sep
30 Sep 95 Aug

September
70 Sep
100 Sep =35 Sep
85 Sep

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – July 27
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 915.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Sep 925.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 930.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 945.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 922.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Sep 932.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 937.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 952.50 +07.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 860.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 860.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 4,000.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 261.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.5257)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jul 27
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 233,295 lots, or 11.63 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-23 4,980 5,022 4,972 4,982 4,976 4,995 19 188,678 143,839
Nov-23 4,950 4,977 4,933 4,952 4,940 4,959 19 32,404 54,754
Jan-24 4,920 4,944 4,900 4,920 4,908 4,926 18 11,139 27,090
Mar-24 4,881 4,899 4,870 4,878 4,866 4,887 21 388 6,215
May-24 4,868 4,884 4,848 4,865 4,856 4,869 13 608 2,122
Jul-24 4,847 4,876 4,844 4,855 4,850 4,860 10 78 237
Corn
Turnover: 532,794 lots, or 14.11 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-23 2,705 2,705 2,687 2,693 2,707 2,695 -12 294,998 620,389
Nov-23 2,610 2,614 2,602 2,608 2,610 2,607 -3 122,020 367,986
Jan-24 2,580 2,580 2,570 2,577 2,577 2,575 -2 55,721 229,308
Mar-24 2,559 2,565 2,554 2,560 2,562 2,559 -3 47,396 95,286
May-24 2,590 2,590 2,573 2,582 2,583 2,578 -5 11,763 35,326
Jul-24 2,586 2,589 2,576 2,581 2,587 2,584 -3 896 2,145
Soymeal
Turnover: 2,395,376 lots, or 99.34 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-23 4,383 4,493 4,372 4,435 4,365 4,436 71 6,618 10,731
Sep-23 4,267 4,374 4,261 4,311 4,240 4,324 84 1,429,696 1,225,691
Nov-23 4,218 4,329 4,218 4,265 4,206 4,281 75 143,963 252,006
Dec-23 4,069 4,177 4,056 4,113 4,037 4,131 94 67,350 94,979
Jan-24 3,871 3,959 3,861 3,917 3,852 3,921 69 535,065 971,949
Mar-24 3,618 3,685 3,618 3,672 3,613 3,658 45 47,684 67,279
May-24 3,340 3,382 3,334 3,369 3,333 3,364 31 137,495 369,776
Jul-24 3,334 3,375 3,331 3,359 3,331 3,356 25 27,505 37,876
Palm Oil
Turnover: 988,698 lots, or 76.89 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-23 7,712 7,800 7,712 7,728 7,674 7,764 90 157 304
Sep-23 7,770 7,860 7,708 7,736 7,736 7,776 40 779,567 368,666
Oct-23 7,790 7,880 7,744 7,782 7,770 7,810 40 17,708 66,672
Nov-23 7,792 7,884 7,752 7,788 7,770 7,812 42 11,887 56,084
Dec-23 7,784 7,872 7,742 7,782 7,762 7,800 38 15,978 34,811
Jan-24 7,748 7,848 7,724 7,762 7,740 7,774 34 136,768 227,650
Feb-24 7,738 7,824 7,706 7,748 7,720 7,756 36 13,369 21,198
Mar-24 7,728 7,800 7,688 7,740 7,706 7,734 28 5,324 20,753
Apr-24 7,696 7,752 7,666 7,694 7,654 7,702 48 41 85
May-24 7,640 7,728 7,614 7,670 7,638 7,662 24 7,828 20,448
Jun-24 7,632 7,682 7,600 7,616 7,600 7,642 42 61 73
Jul-24 7,642 7,644 7,600 7,600 7,588 7,622 34 10 13
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 1,102,591 lots, or 90.68 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-23 8,132 8,270 8,132 8,182 8,132 8,176 44 138 1,949
Sep-23 8,182 8,318 8,180 8,230 8,156 8,242 86 829,395 416,751
Nov-23 8,172 8,330 8,172 8,256 8,188 8,260 72 32,860 104,032
Dec-23 8,176 8,318 8,176 8,244 8,176 8,244 68 9,908 52,694
Jan-24 8,142 8,258 8,132 8,180 8,102 8,186 84 206,581 302,149
Mar-24 7,908 8,028 7,908 7,960 7,898 7,960 62 6,677 41,060
May-24 7,774 7,868 7,750 7,802 7,738 7,798 60 13,904 31,632
Jul-24 7,718 7,836 7,718 7,776 7,698 7,768 70 3,128 4,582

Notes:

1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

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Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing in futures can involve substantial risk & is not for everyone. The information and data in this report were obtained sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or futures.

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