WHEAT
General Comments: Winter Wheat closed higher again yesterday on weather concerns as the big wind storm moved through the Great Plains late last week and as warm and dry weather is in the forecast for the Great Plains. Some damage reports have been heard and the wind blew at hurricane force levels and a lot of the soil was blown around and probably shredded the Wheat. The losses could become significant. Ideas have been that the US will have good demand for Wheat as the rest of the northern hemisphere is short production this year but so far demand has been average against previous years. Offer volumes are down in Europe although there has been talk of increased offers from Russia. Dry weather in southern Russia as well as the US Great Plains and Canadian Prairies caused a lot less production although Russian production was rated as stronger in the most recent USDA WASDE report. The lack of production has reduced the offers and Russia plans to announce sales quotas for next year very soon. Russia has already increased export taxes to control the flow of export Wheat out of the country and announced last week that a quota of 8 million tons per month would be put on Wheat exports for the foreseeable future. Australia has had too much rain and the crop quality should be diminished, but conditions are drier now and the harvest is moving ahead.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions or isolated showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers. Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions but some scattered showers on Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures should average below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are up with objectives of 824 and 869 March. Support is at 795, 788, and 779 March, with resistance at 824, 8245, and 847 March. Trends in Kansas City are up with objectives of 884 March. Support is at 830, 814, and 807 March, with resistance at 885, 892, and 898 March. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 1009, 1001, and 991 March, and resistance is at 1047, 1056, and 1058 March.

Photo by Towfiqu barbhuiya on Unsplash

RICE
General Comments: Rice was higher yesterday as the speculative selling apparently came to an end. Futures have now moved lower for the last several weeks after making new highs for the move. Futures and cash market trading have gone quiet for the holidays. Many producers are done harvesting and are hunting and not interested in selling at a time that is traditionally the cheapest prices of the year. Mills have already purchased what they need for the holidays as will not show much interest in the market until the first part of the middle of next month. The cash market is reported to be relatively strong as prices have held firm despite the quiet activity.
Overnight News: The Delta should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to up with objectives of 1396 and 1410 January. Support is at 1379, 1370, and 1359 January and resistance is at 1400, 1410, and 1423 January.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed higher again yesterday. Support came from ideas that the overall fundamental picture for Corn is bullish. Corn has relatively tight supplies as farmers are mostly done harvesting and not selling. Demand has been strong for exports and very strong for Ethanol consumption. Demand will be an increasing feature in the trade moving forward and the strong weekly export sales report was important for the market moving forward. Demand has been good so far this season but a lot of the Chinese business has gone to Ukraine this Fall. That is expected to change over the Winter as Ukraine exportable supplies start to run low. It could change further is Russia invades Ukraine in the future. Interior basis levels are reported to be strong due to strong demand. There are a lot of ideas that production and planted and harvested area will be significantly less next year due to the lack of fertilizers available and the cost of production.
Overnight News: Ethanol production was 1.051 million barrels per day last week, from 1.087 million the previous week and 976,000 barrels per day last year. Ethanol stocks are now 20.7 million barrels, from 20.9 million the previous week and 23.2 million last year. Ethanol production used 103.2 million bushels last week, from 106.7 million the previous week and 98.6 million last year. Year to date Corn use for Ethanol is now 1.578 million bushels, from 512 million last year.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to up with objectives of 622 and 647 March. Support is at 596, 590, and 587 March, and resistance is at 612, 616, and 622 March. Trends in Oats are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 676, 650, and 646 March, and resistance is at 705, 723, and 736 March.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and both of the products closed higher again yesterday and the trends are turning up on the daily charts. Soybean Oil trends are sideways on the daily charts. Planting and initial crop development is going very well in central and northern Brazil but it has turned dry in southern Brazil and in parts of Argentina. Drier weather is returning to these areas after some showers in the last week and a dry bias is expected going forward. It is a La Nina year and that implies drier than normal weather in southern Brazil and northern Argentina. Reports indicate that some Corn has been lost and ideas are that Soybeans could become stressed if the dry weather returns. Brazil could have soybeans ready for export by the end of February and the crop potential is up to 150 million tons although many are now starting to drop production outlooks due to the hot and dry weather. Ideas are now that Brazil can produce between 142 and 145 million tons of Soybeans this year due to the losses in the south.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are up with objectives of 1344, 1348, and 1354 January. Support is at 1317, 12304, and 1296 January, and resistance is at 1340, 1344, and 1370 January. Trends in Soybean Meal are up with no objectives. Support is at 384.00, 380.00, and 376.00 January, and resistance is at 406.00 412.00, and 418.00 January. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 5420, 5350, and 5230 January, with resistance at 5530, 5600, and 5700 January;

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was higher again today. India has lowered its import taxes on Palm Oil this week. Traders are mostly worried about India who has been buying Soybean Oil in the US instead of Palm Oil from Malaysia and Indonesia and is also worried about China and its demand for Palm Oil for bio fuels. Support still comes from ideas that supply and demand are in balance or supplies are short. There are ideas of tight supplies due to labor problems. There are just not enough workers in the fields due to Coronavirus restrictions. There have also been reports of flooding in Malaysian palm fields. Production has also been down to more than offset the export losses so prices have trended higher. Canola was mixed to higher on price action in Chicago Soybean Oil. Nearby months were lower on some speculative selling. Farmers are bullish and reluctant to sell because of the sharp reduction in Canola production in Canada this year. The buy side thinks that Canola is fully priced but the farmers are still holding out for more.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to up with objectives of 1040.00, 1056.00, and 1058.00 January. Support is at 1014.00, 1000.00, and 992.00 January, with resistance at 1031.00, 1038.00, and 1044.00 January. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed Support is at 4420, 4300, and 4220 March, with resistance at 4530, 4580, and 4730 March.