Grains Report - Thursday, Aug. 19

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat was higher as the European market was more stable. The European market moved lower on Tuesday and took the US markets with it, but the price action yesterday provided stability to the charts. Dry weather in southern Russia as well as the northern US Great Plains and Canadian Prairies remains a supportive feature in the market. Trends in Winter Wheat markets are still mixed. Crop size estimates in Russia have been reduced. The Russian weather has been good for production in northern and western areas but is still trending dry in southern areas and into Kazakhstan. Some showers are no in the forecast for the drier areas but are not expected to help much. The weather in China and Europe is wet and there is potential for reduced quality in Europe. Europe is expecting top yields in some areas but less yield in others and parts of eastern Europe and northern Russia are expecting strong yields. US White Winter Wheat production is also being hurt by hot and dry weather, but a cold front could bring some relief in several days.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be near to above
normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will be near normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers or dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 730, 724, and 7322 September, with resistance at 758, 775, and 787 September. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 702, 688, and 678 September, with resistance at 735, 756, and 764 September. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 915, 905, and 891 September, and resistance is at 936, 95, and 960 September.

Photo by Sandy Ravaloniaina on Unsplash

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed lower again due to harvest pressure. Speculators appeared to be the best sellers. The harvest is now expanding through southern growing areas. Initial yield reports and quality reports have not been real good. Smut has been reported in Texas but the smut is coming off the grain in the cleaning process. The smut problem appears to be worse around Houston. The harvest pace is expected to be slow due to ongoing showers in both regions. Ideas of average yields at best are also heard in Arkansas and Mississippi. Big rains are reported now in Arkansas. Growing conditions have been mixed at best with many areas getting too much rain. Asian prices are mostly steady this week Chart trends are sideways but the price action has not been strong..
Overnight News: The Delta should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be near to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1308, 1294, and 1285 September, with resistance at 1355, 1358, and 1368 September.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was a little higher yesterday and held support on the daily charts. The Pro Farmer crop tour was the main news item of the day. The weather remains a feature of the trade. Some forecasts call for improved weather, especially in the eastern belt. The growing conditions in the US are highly variable and not likely to produce trend line or record yields. It is still too dry in many areas of the west and drier weather is expected in the east. It should stay hot in the west and cool in the east. Ideas are that Brazil Corn production could be less than 85 million tons so reduced production estimates are expected in coming reports. Oats were higher on ideas of small production. The uncertain weather in the northern Great Plains and Canadian Prairies remains the best support for the market. Canadian Oats areas and those in the northern Great Plains remain too hot and dry. Some rain is now in the forecast but is too little and too late to materially help crops.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to up with objectives of 594, 607, and 615 September. Support is at 550, 544, and 540 September, and resistance is at 575, 579, and 589 September. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 494, 475, and 467 September, and resistance is at 520, 526, and 532 September.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and both products were lower in response to the Pro Farmer tour. The weakness came despite another daily sales announcement from USDA. USDA has now announced new export sales for the last 10 days in a row. Chart trends remain mostly sideways in all three markets. US weather is still a feature in the market as it remains hot in the west and is dry in just about all areas now. Eastern Midwest areas should be cooler and parts of central Illinois turned too wet again after some big rains on Thursday night. Soybeans conditions in central production area started the year too wet and have suffered. Minnesota and nod the Dakotas are hot and dry.
Overnight News: China bought 263,000 tons of US Soybeans and Mexico bought 148,500 tons of US Soybeans.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1335, 1330, and 1308 September, and resistance is at 1373, 1388, and 1392 September. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 352.00, 347.00, and 342.00 September, and resistance is at 364.00, 365.00, and 371.00 September. Trends in Soybean Oil mixed. Support is at 6100, 600, and 5940 September, with resistance at 6320, 6440, and 6520 September.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil closed lower today on demand concerns. Exports so far this month have not been strong. Futures are still a trading range market on ideas of tight supplies due to labor problems. There are just not enough workers in the fields due to Coronavirus restrictions. Production has also been down to more than offset the export losses so prices have trended higher. Canola closed lower on weakness in Chicago and Malaysia. Damaging weather continues in the Canadian Prairies and northern Great Plains. Production ideas are down due to the extreme weather seen in these areas. It remains generally dry and warm in the Prairies. The Prairies crops are in big trouble now due to previous hot and dry weather and the rains are coming too late.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to up with objectives of 961.00 November. Support is at 901.00, 888.00, and 867.00 November, with resistance at 940.00, 949.00, and 953.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 4280, 4190, and 4050 November, with resistance at 4360, 4430, and 4530 November.

Disclaimer: A Subsidiary of Price Holdings, Inc. – a Diversified Financial Services Firm. Member NIBA, NFA Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Investing in ...

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