Grains Report - Monday, Sept. 13

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat was lower in Chicago on big fund selling but closed higher in Minneapolis in response to the USDA production estimates. Trends are now down on the daily and weekly charts and the weekly charts imply that big tops are now in the market. The demand has not been seen here, so ideas of increased ending stocks are around. Dry weather in southern Russia as well as the northern US Great Plains and Canadian Prairies remains a supportive feature in the market although the US and Canada are seeing some showers this week. Crop size estimates in Russia have been reduced and domestic Russian prices are above world prices. The Russian weather has been good for production in northern and western areas but is still trending dry in southern areas and into Kazakhstan. The weather in China and Europe is wet and there is potential for reduced quality in Europe. Europe is expecting top yields in some areas but less yield in others and parts of eastern Europe and northern Russia are expecting strong yields.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be near to above
normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will be near normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers or dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down with objectives of 652 December. Support is at 677, 657, and 652 December, with resistance at 697, 706, and 714 December. Trends in Kansas City are down with objectives of 670, 659, and 638 December. Support is at 670, 659, and 643 December, with resistance at 697, 715, and 720 December. Trends in Minneapolis are down with objectives of 840 December. Support is at 862, 840, and 830 December, and resistance is at 890, 9203, and 915 December.

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RICE
General Comments: Rice closed a little higher last week in part in response to the USDA production and WASDE reports. USDA showed reduced production and reduced ending stocks as the demand is expected to hold strong. Harvesting continues in Louisiana and Texas and will start to wind down in both states over the next couple of weeks. A delayed harvest is expected in Mississippi and Arkansas but a few producers are starting to harvest now. Yield reports and quality reports have been acceptable to many in Texas and are called good in Louisiana. The harvest pace is expected to be slow due to ongoing showers in both regions and farther into the north. Ideas of average yields are also heard in Arkansas and Mississippi. Growing conditions have been mixed at best with many areas getting too much rain.
Overnight News: The Delta should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be near to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1326, 1320, and 1308 November, with resistance at 1348, 1358, and 1368 November.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was higher in sell the rumor and buy the fact trading as USDA estimated yields, production, and ending stocks higher but close to trade expectations. Trends are now mixed on the daily charts but are still down on the weekly charts. Demand was increased to partially offset the increased production and ending stocks were just under 1.5 billion bushels. Most of the elevators along the Mississippi are starting to export again which is good news for nearby demand. The weather remains a feature of the trade but is less important now as the Corn is filling kernels and starting to mature. Ideas are that Brazil Corn production could be less than 85 million tons so reduced production estimates are expected in coming reports. Oats were lower yesterday on speculative profit-taking before the USDA reports as the weather remains bad for production even with the crop near or in harvest.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 513, 504, and 498 December, and resistance is at 524, 530, and 543 December. Trends in Oats are mixed to down with objectives of 485 and 468 December. Support is at 484, 467, and 459 December, and resistance is at 502, 512, and 518 December.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans closed a little lower last week in Soybeans and lower in Soybean Oil but higher in Soybean Meal. The big news came on Friday when USDA released its production and WASDE reports. The reports showed increased production and ending stocks estimates from last month but were broadly in line with trade expectations. Futures traded higher on Friday in a sell the rumor and buy the fact trading situation. FSA released the plantings reports early on Wednesday and Soybeans planted area was increased. The destruction of Gulf port facilities along the Mississippi River near New Orleans was still a factor in the trade but the elevators are coming on line and exports have started to resume. The hurricane moved onshore in Louisiana a week ago and did extensive damage to the state, including the grain export elevators. The state also lost electrical posser in all affected areas but power to the export elevators has started to be restored. Demand has held together despite the export problems but the export inspections report showed that very little is getting shipped right now as the exporters scramble to find other ports to send the grain. The weekly export sales report was also expected to be poor as many US exporters have had to pull offers for now Demand is still weaker than expected overall.
Overnight News: Unknown destinations bought 312,000 tons of US Soybeans.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1263, 1241, and 1228 November, and resistance is at 1300, 1306, and 1309 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 336.00, 333.00, and 331.00 October, and resistance is at 344.00, 349.00, and 354.00 October. Trends in Soybean Oil down with objectives of 5480 and 5210 October. Support is at 5480, 5420, and 5360 October, with resistance at 5660, 5730, and 5850 October.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil closed a little higher last week but well off of the highs of the week on demand concerns. Ideas of srong export demand, especially from India, kept futures higher today. Exports were not strong last month and the trade saw big ending stocks when MPOB released its monthly data last week. Ideas are that Palm Oil got too expensive when compared to the other vegetable oils markets. There are ideas of tight supplies due to labor problems. There are just not enough workers in the fields due to Coronavirus restrictions. Production has also been down to more than offset the export losses so prices have trended higher. Canola closed lower last week as the harvest is getting ready to start. Damaging weather continues in the Canadian Prairies and northern Great Plains and hot and dry are in the forecast for this week. Production ideas are down due to the extreme weather seen in these areas. It remains generally dry and warm in the Prairies. The Prairies crops are in big trouble now due to previous hot and dry weather. StatsCan released its stocks estimates and Canola stocks were above trade expectations.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are down with objectives of 816.00 and 804.00 November. Support is at 849.00, 830.00, and 823.00 November, with resistance at 884.00, 902.00, and 905.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 4150, 4050, and 3930 November, with resistance at 4370, 4480, and 4510 November.

Disclaimer: A Subsidiary of Price Holdings, Inc. – a Diversified Financial Services Firm. Member NIBA, NFA Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Investing in ...

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