Grains Report - Monday, Oct. 31

General Comments: Wheat markets were a little lower last week and trends started to turn down again in the Winter Wheat markets. Trends are sideways in Minneapolis as the Spring Wheat Harvest is over. . The weekly export sales report showed stronger sales but the sales were not enough to turn trends up as export demand has generally been poor until now. Ideas are that weak demand can continue due in part to the stronger US Dollar. Russia is looking to export more and wants Ukraine to export less and to only countries it defines as poor. Russia still appears to be losing the war and could do something rash to try to hold things together. The demand for US Wheat still needs to show up and right now there is no demand news to help support futures. The US central and southern Great Plains have been too hot and dry although there are some showers in the western Great Plains now. Conditions are called good for development of Winter Wheat in the Midwest.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get scattered showers. Temperatures should average below normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions . Temperatures will average below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers. Temperatures should average below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 824, 819, and 800 December, with resistance at 863, 873, and 906 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 922, 896, and 885 December, with resistance at 960, 985, and 997 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 938, 907, and 885 December, and resistance is at 971, 993, and 1001 December.

wheat field

Photo by Polina Rytova on Unsplash

General Comments: Rice was a little lower again in part on shipping delays caused by the low river levels on the Mississippi and as the harvest pressure continued. Demand in general has been slow for Rice for both exports and domestic uses but export demand was improved this week at 39,500 tons. The weekly charts show that trends are down. Harvest progress is almost complete in Arkansas, the largest Rice producing state, and yields and quality are reported to be very strong. Mississippi is at harvest with much more mixed results. Producers are done with harvesting in Texas as well as in southern Louisiana Yield reports have been generally good in Louisiana and quality reports are generally good. Yield and quality have been up and down in Texas.
Overnight News: The Delta should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with no objectives. Support is at 1592, 1588, and 1576 November and resistance is at 1625, 1634, and 1650 November.

General Comments: Corn and Oats closed a little lower last week in range trading. The weekly export sales report showed poor sales and was considered bearish for prices. Futures continue to hold support areas on the charts but fail at resistance areas. The Mississippi river is low due to the dry conditions seen in most of the central parts of the US and there are no forecasts for an improvement soon even with rain in the forecast for today. Barge traffic has been reduced. The cash market has been strong at the Gulf but weak in the Midwest river areas due to the low river levels. The demand side will need to be watched as Corn demand needs to hold to keep lower ending stocks estimates in play. There are increasing concerns about demand with the Chinese economic problems caused by the lockdowns creating the possibility of less demand as South America has much better crops this year to compete with the US for sales. Export demand in general has been slow so far this year.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 674, 672, and 665 December, and resistance is at 690, 700, and 706 December. Trends in Oats are down with objectives of 461 and 329 December. Support is at 339, 334, and 328 December, and resistance is at 373, 384, and 393 December.

General Comments: Soybeans closed a little lower and the products were higher as the weekly export sales report for Soybeans was strong. Domestic demand should also be increasing for Soybeans as the crush spreads got richer and provided crushers with a big profit margin for their crushing The US is now more than 80% done with the harvest and a turn to higher prices becomes more possible. The rally potential might not be that great unless demand improves, and the US Dollar turns lower. Ideas that Brazil is off to a very good start. The Mississippi river is low due to the dry conditions seen in most of the central parts of the US and there are no forecasts for an improvement soon. Barge traffic has been reduced. The trade is worried about demand due to a lack of Chinese interest caused by the Covid lockdowns there and in part by the stronger US Dollar. Brazil is still offering its old crop Soybeans, and South America as a whole is expected to produce a very big crop later this year for harvest next Spring as the weather outlook is positive for crops. However, a third year of La Nina as predicted by meteorologists could cut the production potential. US production ideas remain strong after mostly good weather in August. Basis levels are weaker in the Midwest but are strong at the Gulf. There are still Chinese lockdowns and there are fears that China has been importing less as a result. However, Chinese data showed huge imports from all sources in September. President Xi has been elected to a third term in China and has stocked the ruling body with his associates so there are fears that nothing will change soon there.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1381, 1376, and 1367 January, and resistance is at 1409, 1420, and 1423 January. Trends in Soybean Meal are up with objectives of 434.00 and 454.00 December. Support is at 420.00, 418.00, and 415.00 December, and resistance is at 430.00 438.00, and 441.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 6960, 6810, and 6710 December, with resistance at 7360, 7400, and 7460 December.

General Comments: World vegetable oils prices were mixed last week, with Canola and Soybean Oil trading higher and Palm Oil lower. Palm Oil was lower on reports of light export demand. Palm Oil futures traded higher today. Ideas are that supply and production will be strong, but demand ideas are now weakening and the market will continue to look to the private data for clues on demand and the direction of the futures market and that data has been weaker so far this month. Export data has been strong this month from the private sources and MPOB reported improved demand last month. Production was also higher and ending stocks were up more than 10% to 2.315 million tons. Canola was higher last week. The Canola harvest is about over. Reports indicate that domestic demand has been strong due to favorable crush margins. The Canola growing conditions are much improved and production estimates are higher for the year.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 858.00, 850.00, and 840.00 January, with resistance at 883.00, 898.00, and 904.00 January. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 3880, 3820, and 3630 January, with resistance at 4200, 4280, and 4380 January.

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