Grains Report - Monday, Oct. 25
WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat closed higher last week and trends are up in all three markets. Ideas that the US will have good demand for Wheat as the rest of the northern hemisphere is short production this year. The US and Canada have reduced production this year and so do most exporters around the world. Production is less this year in Russia and internal prices have been strong. Dry weather in southern Russia as well as the northern US Great Plains and Canadian Prairies remains a supportive feature in the market although the weather has become old news. The Russian weather has been good for production in northern and western areas but is still trending dry in southern areas and into Kazakhstan. Siberian Spring Wheat conditions have been very good. Europe is expecting top yields in some areas but less yield in others and parts of eastern Europe and northern Russia are expecting strong yields. European quality is a problem due to too much rain in some areas and not enough in others. Speculators keep talking about inflation and are buying commodities for an inflation trade.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions or isolated showers. Temperatures should trend from below to above normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers or dry conditions. Temperatures will trend from below to above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers or dry conditions. Temperatures should trend from below to above normal.
RICE
General Comments: Rice was lower last week on what appeared to be speculative selling. Short term down trends on the charts got started. Ideas are that demand is not yet strong enough to take up the supply available to the market. The crop has been largely harvested in Texas and in Louisiana. Mississippi and Arkansas producers are also almost done with the harvest. Yield reports and quality reports have been acceptable to many in Texas and are called good in Louisiana. The reports have been good in both Arkansas and Mississippi
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions or isolated showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with objectives of 1322, 1320, and 292 November. Support is at 1340, 1329, and 1320 November, with resistance at 1360, 1368, and 1372 November.
CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats closed higher Friday and for the week on strong weekly export sales and strong ethanol demand as future demand ideas ignored some world economic and regulatory issues emanating from China. Trends are mixed on the daily charts for both markets. Traders keep talking about new demand for the market from exporters and noted that the demand for ethanol production was very strong. Demand will be an increasing feature in the trade moving forward as the harvest moves to its halfway point. Initial yield reports have been mixed but good, with some lower yields reported due to disease but some higher than expected yields reported in western areas. Farmers are reported to be limited sellers at best. Most of the elevators along the Mississippi are exporting again which is good news for nearby demand. There are a lot of ideas that production and planted and harvested area will be significantly less next year due to the lack of fertilizers available and the cost of production. The Oats market knows that supplies will be tight due to a drought in the northern Great Plains and Canada. There will not be much in the way of high quality Oats for consumers to buy in the coming year.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 529, 513, and 507 December, and resistance is at 540, 545, and 548 December. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 645, 626, and 623 December, and resistance is at 669, 686, and 690 December.
SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products closed higher last week despite weakness in Soybeans and Soybean Oil over the second half of the week. Soybean Oil showed weakness along with Palm Oil on ideas that both markets were overbought, but the weakness was not enough to push prices lower for the week. Ideas of strong demand from China were supportive but took a back seat to ideas of new economic and regulatory issue there. There were no new sales announcements to China last week. The weekly charts still show down trends for all three markets, and the daily chart trends are mixed. Harvest has moved past the half way point for Soybeans and a harvest low might be seen during the second half of the harvest. Reports indicate that farmers are limited sellers at best. Gulf port elevators are coming on line and export sales and exports are increasing.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1208, 1200, and 1184 November, and resistance is at 1239, 1249, and 1258 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to up with objectives of 330.00 and 341.00 December. Support is at 324.00, 320.00, and 314.00 December and resistance is at 332.00 338.00, and 341.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 6220, 6130, and 6060 December, with resistance at 6310, 6400, and 6500 December.
CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: World vegetable oils prices were higher last week, but the markets came off the highs late in the week on what was called speculative profit taking. Palm Oil was higher for the week even with slow exports as reported by the private services. Support still comes from ideas that supply and demand are in balance or supplies are short. India was the major importer as the country reduced import taxes. It has also reduced import taxes now for Soybean Oil and Canola Oil and this has caused some demand worries for Palm. The weekly chart trends are up. There are ideas of tight supplies due to labor problems. There are just not enough workers in the fields due to Coronavirus restrictions. Production has also been down to more than offset the export losses so prices have trended higher. Canola closed higher for the week as the harvest is continuing amid good conditions in the Prairies. Farmers are bullish and reluctant to sell and would rather work in the fields. The weekly chart trends are sideways. Production ideas are down due to the extreme weather seen in these areas. It remains generally dry and warm in the Prairies. The Prairies crops are in big trouble now due to previous hot and dry weather.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 929.00, 922.00, and 912.00 November, with resistance at 953.00, 961.00, and 966.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 4820, 4740, and 4670 January, with resistance at 4940, 5090, and 5120 January.
Disclaimer: A Subsidiary of Price Holdings, Inc. – a Diversified Financial Services Firm. Member NIBA, NFA Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Investing in ...
more