WHEAT

General Comments: Chicago Winter Wheat markets were a little lower while Minneapolis was a little higher last week in narrow range trading. There are Iranian drones that were given to Moscow and they hit many civilian targets. Ideas are that weak demand can continue due in part to the stronger US Dollar. Russia is looking to export more and wants Ukraine to export less and to only countries it defines as poor. Russia still appears to be losing the war and could do something rash to try to hold things together. The demand for US Wheat still needs to show up and right now there is no demand news to help support futures.. Europe is too hot and dry and the US central and southern Great Plains have also been too hot and dry. Planting and initial emergence could be affected.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average below normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions . Temperatures will average below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down with objectives of 846 and 794 December. Support is at 833, 819, and 800 December, with resistance at 873, 906, and 946 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down with objectives of 930 and 872 December. Support is at 929, 922, and 896 December, with resistance at 960, 985, and 997 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 938, 907, and 885 December, and resistance is at 993, 1001, and 1024 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of October 18, 2022
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
 

WHEAT-SRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE

CFTC Code #001602 Open Interest is 404,388
: Positions :
: 27,447 68,930 132,735 56,619 113,021 157,944 53,794 374,744 368,479: 29,643 35,908
: Changes from: October 11, 2022 (Change in open interest: -6,590) :
: -341 -2,298 1,002 -4,749 -6,992 -738 3,645 -4,826 -4,643: -1,764 -1,947
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 6.8 17.0 32.8 14.0 27.9 39.1 13.3 92.7 91.1: 7.3 8.9
: Total Traders: 335 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 72 84 113 84 102 48 31 275 273:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of October 18, 2022
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001612 Open Interest is 174,916
: Positions :
: 24,781 16,682 33,843 36,340 91,381 58,121 9,828 153,085 151,734: 21,832 23,182
: Changes from: October 11, 2022 (Change in open interest: 739) :
: -210 -2,192 1,491 -302 1,009 -129 1,378 850 1,686: -111 -947
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 14.2 9.5 19.3 20.8 52.2 33.2 5.6 87.5 86.7: 12.5 13.3
: Total Traders: 202 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 42 32 49 59 73 37 17 165 149:
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Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of October 18, 2022
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRSpring – MINNEAPOLIS GRAIN EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS) :
CFTC Code #001626 Open Interest is 58,504 :
: Positions :
: 33,403 39,310 1,779 942 316 6,121 2,312 1,787 3,195 761 2,618 :
: Changes from: October 11, 2022 :
: 472 -1,162 119 1 -45 -204 103 -22 -219 -52 73 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 57.1 67.2 3.0 1.6 0.5 10.5 4.0 3.1 5.5 1.3 4.5 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 98 :
: 53 41 5 . . 10 7 6 7 5 8 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

RICE:

General Comments: Rice was lower again last week in part on shipping delays caused by the low river levels on the Mississippi and as the harvest pressure continued. Demand in general has been slow for Rice. The weekly charts show that trends are down. Harvest progress is almost complete in Arkansas, the largest Rice producing state, and yields and quality are reported to be very strong. Mississippi is also at harvest with much more mixed results. Some producers are getting done with harvesting in Texas as well as in southern Louisiana Yield reports have been generally good in Louisiana and quality reports are generally good. Yield and quality have been up and down in Texas.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with objectives of 1607 November. Support is at 1622, 1604, and 1692 November and resistance is at 1650, 1658, and 1672 November.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of October 18, 2022
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
ROUGH RICE – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 200,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #039601 Open Interest is 9,200 :
: Positions :
: 4,910 4,122 0 0 0 1,093 1,731 80 449 1,159 730 :
: Changes from: October 11, 2022 :
: 852 -699 -117 0 0 -443 486 73 17 379 77 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 53.4 44.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.9 18.8 0.9 4.9 12.6 7.9 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 54 :
: 16 13 0 0 0 6 10 . 5 10 . :
—————————————————————————————————————-

CORN AND OATS

General Comments: Corn closed lower last week in range trading. Futures continue to hold longer term support areas n the charts The Mississippi river is low due to the dry conditions seen in most of the central parts of the US and there are no forecasts for an improvement soon. Barge traffic has been reduced. The cash market has been strong at the Gulf but weak in the Midwest river areas due to the low river levels. The demand side will need to be watched as Corn demand needs to hold to keep lower ending stocks estimates in play. There are increasing concerns about demand with the Chinese economic problems caused by the lockdowns creating the possibility of less demand as South America has much better crops this year to compete with the US for sales. Export demand in general has been slow so far this year.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 674, 672, and 665 December, and resistance is at 689, 700, and 706 December. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 369, 364, and 358 December, and resistance is at 393, 400, and 410 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of October 18, 2022
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
CORN – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #002602 Open Interest is 1,856,288
: Positions :
: 258,104 81,870 506,936 475,425 944,692 447,367 91,247 1,687,830 1,624,745: 168,458 231,543
: Changes from: October 11, 2022 (Change in open interest: -30,122) :
: -11,110 6,533 -2,736 -11,900 -23,984 -6,938 -6,802 -32,684 -26,989: 2,562 -3,133
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 13.9 4.4 27.3 25.6 50.9 24.1 4.9 90.9 87.5: 9.1 12.5
: Total Traders: 821 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 162 113 199 367 412 55 32 683 682:
——————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of October 18, 2022
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
OATS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS) :
CFTC Code #004603 Open Interest is 4,165 :
: Positions :
: 1,016 2,001 232 0 0 0 802 0 781 0 297 :
: Changes from: October 11, 2022 :
: 150 152 87 0 0 0 -28 0 56 -1 -3 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 24.4 48.0 5.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 19.3 0.0 18.7 0.0 7.1 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 22 :
: 7 6 . 0 0 0 4 0 7 0 4 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

SOYBEANS

General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Oil closed higher last week and Soybean Meal was a little lower. Strong export demand supported the Soybeans. Soybean Oil was supported in part by data from NOPA that showed a reduced crush rate and low stocks levels for Soybean Oil. The rally comes as the US is now more than half done with the harvest and a turn to higher prices becomes more possible. The rally potential might not be that great unless demand improves and the US Dollar turns lower. The Dollar might have reversed from moving higher on Friday.. The US will still harvest plenty of Soybeans in the next few weeks and ideas that Brazil is off to a very good start. The Mississippi river is low due to the dry conditions seen in most of the central parts of the US and there are no forecasts for an improvement soon. Barge traffic has been reduced. The trade is worried about demand due to a lack of Chinese interest caused by the Covid lockdowns there and in part by the stronger US Dollar. Brazil is still offering and South America as a whole are expected to produce a very big crop later this year for harvest next Spring. However, a third year of La Nina as predicted by meteorologists could cut the production potential. US production ideas remain strong after mostly good weather in August. Basis levels are weaker in the Midwest but are strong at the Gulf. There are still Chinese lockdowns and there are fears that China has been importing less as a result.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1378, 1357, and 1349 November, and resistance is at 1410, 1414, and 1427 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 409.00, 404.00, and 399.00 December, and resistance is at 419.00 423.00, and 430.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are up with objectives of 7070, 7160, and 7430 December. Support is at 6810, 6710, and 6500 December, with resistance at 7210, 7260, and 7380 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of October 18, 2022
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-

SOYBEANS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE

CFTC Code #005602 Open Interest is 847,777
: Positions :
: 76,604 65,974 230,986 315,571 411,406 167,677 54,518 790,837 762,884: 56,940 84,893
: Changes from: October 11, 2022 (Change in open interest: 14,590) :
: -701 4,343 21,507 -12,679 -17,196 6,030 8,057 14,156 16,710: 434 -2,120
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 9.0 7.8 27.2 37.2 48.5 19.8 6.4 93.3 90.0: 6.7 10.0
: Total Traders: 577 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 112 121 170 206 240 52 27 469 488:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of October 18, 2022
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-

SOYBEAN OIL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE

CFTC Code #007601 Open Interest is 459,121
: Positions :
: 70,513 27,107 110,991 119,841 276,653 119,372 21,346 420,717 436,097: 38,405 23,025
: Changes from: October 11, 2022 (Change in open interest: 20,065) :
: 13,830 -3,287 3,618 -5,078 19,235 4,420 1,788 16,790 21,354: 3,276 -1,289
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 15.4 5.9 24.2 26.1 60.3 26.0 4.6 91.6 95.0: 8.4 5.0
: Total Traders: 300 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 80 50 75 87 108 42 22 241 229:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of October 18, 2022
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-

SOYBEAN MEAL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE

CFTC Code #026603 Open Interest is 414,496
: Positions :
: 72,775 18,333 77,018 91,088 271,652 120,011 19,072 360,892 386,075: 53,604 28,421
: Changes from: October 11, 2022 (Change in open interest: 11,071) :
: -310 -1,500 3,567 3,377 5,859 3,454 2,998 10,088 10,925: 983 146
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 17.6 4.4 18.6 22.0 65.5 29.0 4.6 87.1 93.1: 12.9 6.9
: Total Traders: 250 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 56 35 67 85 89 42 18 217 184:
——————————————————————————————————————-

CANOLA AND PALM OIL

General Comments: Palm Oil was higher last week as futures prices recovered from very oversold levels. The market ws closed today. Ideas are that supply and production will be strong, but demand ideas are now weakening and the market will continue to look to the private data for clues on demand and the direction of the futures market and that data has been weaker so far this month. Export data has been strong this month from the private sources and MPOB reported improved demand last month. Production was also higher and ending stocks were up more than 10% to 2.315 million tons. Canola was higher last week. Support came from rallies in Palm Oil and Soybean Oil. The Canola harvest is active and starting to wind down in some areas. Reports indicate that domestic demand has been strong due to favorable crush margins. The Canola growing conditions are much improved and production estimates are higher for the year.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to up with objectives of 915.00, 956.00, and 958.00 November. Support is at 873.00, 861.00, and 850.00 November, with resistance at 891.00, 894.00, and 907.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 4200 and 4500 January. Support is at 4000, 3880, and 3820 January, with resistance at 4200, 4280, and 4380 January.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of October 18, 2022
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
USD Malaysian Crude Palm Oil C – CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 25 METRIC TONS) :
CFTC Code #037021 Open Interest is 45,698 :
: Positions :
: 37,388 32,183 1,682 5,071 1,814 0 80 0 4,014 5,780 770 :
: Changes from: October 11, 2022 :
: 640 -900 0 640 -225 0 0 0 -180 730 -50 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 81.8 70.4 3.7 11.1 4.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 8.8 12.6 1.7 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 28 :
: 8 9 . . . 0 . 0 . 6 . :
—————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of October 18, 2022
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
CANOLA – ICE FUTURES U.S. (20 Metric Tonnes) :
CFTC Code #135731 Open Interest is 242,878 :
: Positions :
: 197,229 170,332 342 5,884 2,466 13,932 26,993 13,226 2,960 10,257 10,965 :
: Changes from: October 11, 2022 :
: -174 1,562 -93 -295 127 743 396 -2,552 662 -38 -1,852 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 81.2 70.1 0.1 2.4 1.0 5.7 11.1 5.4 1.2 4.2 4.5 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 312 :
: 54 91 . 8 4 39 33 23 44 88 52 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

Midwest Weather Forecast:: Mostly dry conditions today. Temperatures should average below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
October
280 Dec
250 Dec
200 Dec
275 Nov

November
2780 Dec
250 Dec
200 Dec
275 Nov

December
230 Dec
230 Dec
200 Dec
250 Nov

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Oct 21
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash canola prices
from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Price Basis Contract Change

CANOLA

*Par Region 876.30 -9.10 Nov. 2022 up 5.90
Basis: Thunder Bay 928.90 30.00 Nov. 2022 up 13.50
Basis: Vancouver 943.90 45.00 Nov. 2022 up 13.50
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day.
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com,
or 204-414-9084)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Oct 24
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 148,860 lots, or 8.35 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-22 5,836 5,836 5,780 5,801 5,800 5,807 7 9,971 8,342
Jan-23 5,623 5,642 5,565 5,588 5,631 5,600 -31 124,878 178,065
Mar-23 5,550 5,564 5,502 5,520 5,561 5,527 -34 11,293 41,049
May-23 5,550 5,575 5,505 5,520 5,567 5,532 -35 2,201 8,233
Jul-23 5,522 5,560 5,485 5,511 5,535 5,514 -21 284 1,476
Sep-23 5,508 5,517 5,477 5,488 5,514 5,494 -20 233 462

Corn

Turnover: 504,860 lots, or 1.46 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-22 2,840 2,865 2,840 2,851 2,843 2,851 8 36,710 52,138
Jan-23 2,871 2,895 2,869 2,880 2,870 2,882 12 337,167 704,862
Mar-23 2,900 2,922 2,895 2,907 2,896 2,910 14 58,166 339,135
May-23 2,935 2,957 2,929 2,941 2,929 2,945 16 23,452 113,828
Jul-23 2,946 2,966 2,942 2,952 2,942 2,956 14 46,237 154,253
Sep-23 2,943 2,964 2,942 2,953 2,942 2,955 13 3,128 6,898

Soymeal

Turnover: 1,389,004 lots, or 55.49 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-22 4,780 4,837 4,776 4,826 4,840 4,799 -41 22,494 33,258
Dec-22 4,361 4,449 4,360 4,412 4,452 4,416 -36 67,300 195,090
Jan-23 3,998 4,065 3,997 4,052 4,049 4,037 -12 1,045,872 1,596,328
Mar-23 3,830 3,895 3,823 3,888 3,870 3,871 1 30,530 122,346
May-23 3,586 3,630 3,573 3,619 3,607 3,610 3 185,597 405,871
Jul-23 3,552 3,585 3,546 3,580 3,568 3,570 2 25,129 71,527
Aug-23 3,596 3,630 3,594 3,621 3,618 3,615 -3 7,361 29,161
Sep-23 3,560 3,584 3,557 3,575 3,583 3,573 -10 4,721 17,784

Palm Oil

Turnover: 984,315 lots, or 79.95 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-22 8,270 8,350 8,086 8,138 8,330 8,256 -74 5,668 6,836
Dec-22 8,208 8,338 8,064 8,096 8,274 8,198 -76 13,553 65,051
Jan-23 8,166 8,268 7,992 8,022 8,208 8,122 -86 894,232 444,264
Feb-23 8,176 8,258 8,004 8,022 8,192 8,120 -72 5,967 51,223
Mar-23 8,178 8,272 8,022 8,034 8,194 8,138 -56 4,730 33,244
Apr-23 8,162 8,258 8,012 8,024 8,178 8,118 -60 5,767 29,492
May-23 8,098 8,210 7,952 7,984 8,142 8,062 -80 51,937 95,411
Jun-23 8,056 8,142 7,904 7,932 8,056 7,998 -58 2,185 9,266
Jul-23 8,026 8,026 7,858 7,858 8,004 7,928 -76 6 144
Aug-23 7,916 7,962 7,816 7,816 7,984 7,882 -102 96 97
Sep-23 7,836 7,908 7,734 7,752 7,900 7,834 -66 173 355
Oct-23 7,826 7,826 7,826 7,826 7,900 7,826 -74 1 1

Soybean Oil

Turnover: 766,887 lots, or 73.24 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-22 10,408 10,492 10,264 10,272 10,420 10,396 -24 6,767 4,261
Dec-22 10,030 10,144 9,924 9,948 10,048 10,042 -6 5,934 74,055
Jan-23 9,550 9,688 9,460 9,488 9,578 9,582 4 710,184 461,788
Mar-23 9,052 9,142 8,932 8,968 9,068 9,052 -16 7,009 56,926
May-23 8,808 8,938 8,708 8,740 8,854 8,818 -36 30,527 70,725
Jul-23 8,726 8,830 8,602 8,632 8,730 8,706 -24 3,242 20,610
Aug-23 8,686 8,784 8,550 8,588 8,682 8,674 -8 2,657 20,663
Sep-23 8,656 8,740 8,512 8,538 8,646 8,634 -12 567 1,422

Notes:

1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

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