Grains Report - Monday, Nov. 22
WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat closed lower Friday and for the week in all three markets and prices are back in the recent trading range for the Winter Wheat markets. Minneapolis continues to show topping potential and closed on a weak note on Friday. Speculators appeared to be the best sellers and were reported to be liquidating longs. Ideas are that the US will have good demand for Wheat as the rest of the northern hemisphere is short production this year. Offer volumes are down from both Russia and Europe. Dry weather in southern Russia as well as the northern US Great Plains and Canadian Prairies remains a supportive feature in the market although the weather has become old news. The lack of production has reduced the offers and Russia plans to announce sales quotas for next year very soon. Russia has already increased export taxes to control the flow of export Wheat out of the country. The Russian weather has been good for production in northern and western areas and has recently improved in southern areas and into Kazakhstan in time for the next crop. Siberian Spring Wheat conditions have been very good. Europe is expecting top yields in some areas but less yield in others and parts of eastern Europe and northern Russia are expecting strong yields. European quality is a problem due to too much rain in some areas and not enough in others.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 810, 798, and 780 December, with resistance at 843, 848, and 854 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 814, 802, and 796 December, with resistance at 843, 850, and 854 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 1005, 999, and 984 December, and resistance is at 1030, 1044, and 10648 December.
Photo by Denes Kozma on Unsplash
RICE
General Comments: Rice was near unchanged on Friday but higher for the week. The weekly charts show that the rally continues and has made new highs with futures trading above 1400/cwt for the first time in more than a year. The cash market is also reported to be stronger, especially in Texas. Weekly chart trends are now up. Daily charts show up trends and that futures have broken through important resistance areas. The crop has been largely harvested in all states. Export demand has been good but not great so far and is mostly for paddy. Mill demand has been about average so far.
Overnight News: The Delta should get showers late this week. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are up with no objectives. Support is at 1436, 1422, and 1410 January and resistance is at 1464, 1476, and 1488 January.
CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed lower in range trading last week but the daily charts suggest a correction down is coming in the short term. The weekly charts still suggest higher prices are coming longer term and the fundamentals do as well. Corn has relatively tight supplies as farmers are harvesting and not selling. Demand will be an increasing feature in the trade moving forward as the harvest moves to completion sometime this month. Demand has been good so far this season. Yield reports have been mixed but generally strong. Most of the elevators along the Mississippi are exporting again which is good news for nearby demand. There are a lot of ideas that production and planted and harvested area will be significantly less next year due to the lack of fertilizers available and the cost of production. Oats were higher but held the recent trading range.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 566, 563, and 555 December, and resistance is at 577, 582, and 584 December. Trends in Oats are mixed to up with objectives of 792 and 796 December. Support is at 737, 710, and 702 December, and resistance is at 767, 775, and 782 December.
SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Oil closed lower primarily as Soybeans moved back down to test support at the breakout levels just below the lows of the day yesterday. Soybean Oil weakened due to weakness in Crude Oil futures and subsequent demand concerns due to the potential for closings to return due to a resurgence of the Coronavirus. Soybean Meal was higher as demand has greatly improved in the US and Canada with no big amounts of Rapeseed or Canola Meal available. The breakout has held so far. Harvest is starting to wrap up for Soybeans and a harvest low might have been hit this week. Reports indicate that farmers are limited sellers at best. Gulf port elevators are coming on line and export sales and exports are increasing. Planting and initial crop development is going very well in Brazil. Brazil could have soybeans ready for export by the end of February and the crop potential is up to 150 million tons. It has been dry in Argentina but rain has been falling this week and conditions for planting and initial growth are improving.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up with objectives of 1354 and 1447 January. Support is at 1247, 1241, and 1222 January, and resistance is at 1289, 1292, and 1304 January. Trends in Soybean Meal are up with no objectives. Support is at 367.00, 358.00, and 355.00 December and resistance is at 376.00 379.00, and 382.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 6200 and 6440 December. Support is at 5750, 5700, and 5600 December, with resistance at 5900, 5990, and 61060 December.
CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was a little higher last week on ideas of weak production ahead and good demand, especially from China for fuel uses. Futures are still caught in a trading range on the weekly charts but are now at the upper end of the range. Support still comes from ideas that supply and demand are in balance or supplies are short. The weekly chart trends are up. There are ideas of tight supplies due to labor problems. There are just not enough workers in the fields due to Coronavirus restrictions. Production has also been down to more than offset the export losses so prices have trended higher. Canola was lower along with price action in Chicago Soybean Oil. Farmers are bullish and reluctant to sell because of the sharp reduction in Canola production in Canada this year. The weekly chart trends are up.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 993.00, 979.00, and 961.00 January, with resistance at 1020.00, 1030.00, and 1038 .00 January. Trends in Palm Oil are up with objectives of 5340 and 5770 February. Support is at 4910, 4790, and 4700 February, with resistance at 5110, 5180, and 5240 February.
Disclaimer: A Subsidiary of Price Holdings, Inc. – a Diversified Financial Services Firm. Member NIBA, NFA Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Investing in ...
more