Grains Report - Monday, March 4

Chart, Trading, Courses, Forex, Analysis

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Wheat

General Comments: Wheat was mostly a little higher last week., but SRW futures were a little lower and all prices remain in a trading range. Big world supplies and low world prices are still around. Russian export prices were reported at a new low yesterday. Export sales remain weak on competition from Russia, Ukraine, and the EU as those countries look to export a lot of Wheat in the coming period. EU offers were unchanged to help keep US offers from falling. Russian and Ukraine's offers are weaker. Some support came from the bombings in the Red Sea that have interrupted commerce. It is warm in the US and Canada this week. Black Sea offers are still plentiful and Russian prices appear to be weakening.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 569, 560, and 554 May, with resistance at 589, 594, and 599 May. Trends in Kansas City are nixed. Support is at 558, 552, and 546 May, with resistance at 566, 592, and 608 May. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 641, 635, and 629 May, and resistance is at 660, 668, and 672 May.
 

Rice

General Comments: Rice closed lower last week and held to a trading range. Strong demand for export continues as well. The overseas markets feature less production in Brazil and India and it appears that the lack of offer from these markets is supporting increased demand for US Rice and prices here in the US. Warmer and wetter weather is expected this week and next on the Delta and Texas and soil moisture conditions for the next crop should improve.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1819, 1811, and 1795 May and resistance is at 1875, 1877, and 1907 May.
 

Corn And Oats

General Comments: Corn and Oats were higher last week on what appeared to be speculative short covering. Big supplies and reports of limited demand are still around, but futures have been very oversold. Futures are much lower than just a few months ago and a short covering rally is increasingly expected but has not come yet. Funds remain very large shorts in the market. Basis levels have started to firm in the US as processors look for supplies amid tight farmer holding patterns. The weather forecasts for Argentina are improving with more showers and rains expected this week. More rain is forecast for central and northern Brazil The planting progress reports to date indicate rapid progress. The market anticipates increased selling from US producers but this has not really shown up due to the extremely low prices so far.
Overnight News: Taiwan bought 110,000 tons of US Corn.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 422, 409, and 406 May, and resistance is at 434, 441, and 446 May. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 362, 358, and 349 May, and resistance is at 376, 379, and 381 May.
 

Soybeans

General Comments: Soybeans and the products closed a little higher last week, with Soybeans closing higher for only the third week since November. Ideas that South American production is taking demand from the US have pressured futures lower. Funds remain very large shorts in the market. Basis levels in the country are reported to be firming as processors look for supplies and farmers remain tight holders. Rains are in the forecast after the extreme weather seen over the next week in Argentina. Such rains would be beneficial for reproducing Corn and Soybeans. The precipitation keeps falling in Brazil and is expected to continue through this week. The rains could be detrimental to the quality Soybeans and the planting dates for Winter Corn. Support also came from reports of reduced Brazil production but has been offset by reduced Chinese demand.
Overnight News: Unknown destinations bought 126,000 tons of US Soybean Meal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 1128, 1122, and 1116 May, and resistance is at 1151, 1161, and 1180 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 323.00, 320.00, and 317.00 May, and resistance is at 334.00, 338.00, and 345.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 4420, 4360, a6nd 4300 May, with resistance at 4620, 4680, and 4750 May.
 

Canola And Palm Oil

General Comments: Palm Oil was higher last week because of production problems in Southeast Asia but as the export pace is below expectations. It was lower tody on the weaker export pace. Ideas of weaker production ideas against good demand still support the market overall. The fundamentals of average demand against a weaker supply outlook are still around to keep prices supported. Trends are mixed on the daily charts and on the weekly charts. Canola was higher with Chicago. There are still forecasts for better rains in Argentina after a dry spell ends in a week or so and improving weather in Brazil. Current forecasts call for generally improved growing conditions in Brazil this week. The Canola crop is harvested, and it is in bins, so it will take some price movement to get new farm sales.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 585.00, 576.00, and 570.00 May, with resistance at 598.00, 605.00, and 610.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 3980 and 4090 May. Support is at 3910, 3870, and 3810 May, with resistance at 4030, 4060, and 4090 May.


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Grains Report - Thursday, Feb. 29

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