Grains Report - Monday, March, 11

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat was mostly higher last week, with Chicago SRW lower on reports of weaker world prices amid a lack of demand against an increase in demand. USDA made no changes to its balance sheets last week. Big world supplies and low world prices are still around. Russian export prices were reported at a new low yesterday. There were some reports that Algeria was a major buyer of Russian Wheat this week and Egypt has tendered as well. Export sales remain weak on competition from Rusia, Ukraine, and the EU as those countries look to export a lot of Wheat in the coming period. EU offers were lower. Russian and Ukraine offers are weaker. Some support came from the bombings in the Red Sea that has interrupted commerce. It is warm in the US and Canada this week. Black Sea offers are still plentiful and Russian prices are still weakening.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near normal. USDA said that China canceled purchases for 264,000 tons of US SRW.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down with no objectives. Support is at 516, 510, and 504 May, with resistance at 554, 560, and 572 May. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 552, 546, and 540 May, with resistance at 592, 602, and 608 May. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 641, 635, and 629 May, and resistance is at 668, 672, and 675 May.

selective focus photo of wreath

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RICE
General Comments: Rice closed lower last week and trends remain down in this market. Strong demand for export continues as well. The overseas markets feature less production in Brazil and India and it appears that the lack of offer from these markets is supporting increased demand for US Rice and prices here in the US. Warmer and wetter weather is expected this week and next on the Delta and Texas and soil moisture conditions for the next crop should improve.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with no objectives. Support is at 1773, 1759, and 1751 May and resistance is at 1827, 1845, and 1877 May.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was higher last week, and trends are up on the daily chart. USDA made no important changes to the monthly balance sheets and international data did not change that much, either. Big supplies and reports of limited demand are still around, but futures have been very oversold. Futures are much lower than just a few months ago and a short covering rally is increasingly expected but has not come yet. Funds remain very large shorts in the market. Basis levels have started to firm in the US as processors look for supplies amid tight farmer holding patterns. The weather forecasts for Argentina are improving with more showers and rains expected this week. More rain is forecast for central and northern Brazil The planting progress reports to date indicate rapid progress. The market anticipates increased selling from US producers but this has not really shown up due to the extremely low prices so far.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 429, 422, and 409 May, and resistance is at 441, 446, and 448 May. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 349, 344, and 340 May, and resistance is at 368, 374, and 376 May.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products closed mostly higher on Friday and higher for the week on speculative buying and on reports of stronger basis levels and great export demand in Brazil. USDA made no significant changes to its US balance sheets on Friday and cut Brazil Soybeans production less than the trade had expected. Report indicate that China has been a very active buyer of Brazil Soybeans in the last week. Ideas that South American production is taking demand from the US have pressured futures lower. Funds remain very large shorts in the market. Basis levels in the country are reported to be firming as processors look for supplies and farmers remain tight holders. Rains are in the forecast after the extreme weather seen over the next week in Argentina. Such rains would be beneficial for reproducing Corn and Soybeans.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1148, 1128, and 1122 May, and resistance is at 1166, 1180, and 1192 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 326.00, 329.00, and 307.00 May, and resistance is at 335.00, 338.00, and 345.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 4420, 4360, and 4300 May, with resistance at 4680, 4730, and 4810 May.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was higher last week on production problems in Southeast Asia and as the export pace is expected to really improve. Domestic biofuels demand is also likely to improve. Ideas of weaker production ideas against good demand still support the market overall. The fundamentals of average demand against a weaker supply outlook are still around to keep prices supported. Trends are mixed on the daily charts and on the weekly charts. Canola was higher with Chicago and Malaysia. There are still forecasts for better rains in Argentina after a dry spell ends in a week or so and improving weather in Brazil. Current forecasts call for generally improved growing conditions in Brazil this week. The Canola crop is harvested, and it is in bins, so it will take some price movement to get new farm sales.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 594.00, 585.00, and 576.00 May, with resistance at 610.00, 618.00, and 621.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are up with objectives of 4150 May. Support is at 5080, 4000, and 3960 May, with resistance at 4140, 4170, and 4200 May.


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Grains Report - Thursday, March 7
Softs Report - Thursday, March 7

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