Grains Report - Monday, June 28

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were mixed Friday as dry weather is still forecast for Spring Wheat areas. Minneapolis closed higher again, but Winter Wheat markets were lower. The Winter Wheat harvest is ongoing. Winter Wheat yield reports are strong, so the supply will likely be good once the harvest is complete. However, the Spring Wheat situation is different and a short crop is increasingly likely. More rain is possible later this week, but Spring Wheat areas could get shortchanged again. Chart trends are sideways in the Winter Wheat markets but are up in Minneapolis. Its harvest time for Winter Wheat. Yield reports have generally been good and it has turned drier for the harvest. Spring Wheat areas of the US and Canada got some showers and storms, but mostly in Canada. A few more showers are in the forecast, but once again mostly for Canada. North Dakota is looking mostly dry.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers. Temperatures will be above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down with objectives of 635 and 600 July. Support is at 626, 620, and 609 July, with resistance at 653, 673, and 676 July. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 588, 586, and 582 July, with resistance at 616, 621, and 632 July. Trends in Minneapolis are up with objectives of 840 and 875 July. Support is at 802, 780, and 775 July, and resistance is at 831, 836, and 843 July.

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RICE
General Comments: Rice prices shot higher in the first part of last week, but gave back a majority of the gains later in the week. Futures are now back inside the previous trading range on the weekly charts. The daily charts show mixed trends. Mostly dry conditions and warmer temperatures are currently forecast for southern US growing areas, but Louisiana and Mississippi got a tropical storm moving through this past weekend. Rice areas have generally been wet and northern areas have been cool, but better conditions are appearing this week. Louisiana and parts of Mississippi were saturated but it is drier now. Some big storms are in the forecast for the rest of the week Warm temperatures are reported in Arkansas and Missouri and the crop progress is improving. However, it is still very wet in Arkansas, and farmer progress has been limited for the last couple of weeks.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1281, 1258, and 1242 July, with resistance at 1333, 1341, and 1354 July.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was lower as forecasts for the Midwest called for more rains late in the week. Rains late last week were very big. As much as 8.00 inches fell in a few locations but most areas got less or much less. More was coming over the weekend and into this week. As much as 2.00 to 4.00 inches of rain is possible, with more forecast for a few areas, mostly in central and eastern areas but also somewhat in the west. The northern and western areas could see cooler temperatures but will be mostly dry. Futures also got bad demand news with the recent Supreme Court ruling on biofuels wavers. The Supreme Court said small refiners could be exempt from blending requirements and that could hurt ethanol demand here in the US. Oats were higher. Canadian Oats areas look to be dry in the near term. Hot and dry conditions continue in central and northern Brazil for Corn there. Longer range forecasts released by NWS call for warmer and drier weather for many important US growing areas this Summer.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to down with objectives of 620 and 617 July. Support is at 630, 603, and 582 July, and resistance is at 660, 664, and 670 July. Trends in Oats are mixed to up with objectives of 403, 406, and 427 July. Support is at 370, 366, and 356 July, and resistance is at 409, 411, and 412 July.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans were lower and Soybean Meal closed higher Friday on reports of big rains in much of the Midwest and forecasts for more rains in the coming week. Soybean Oil was lower on news that the US Supreme Court has ruled that small refineries can get bio fuels exemptions from the government. Rains up to 8.00 inches were reported in parts of Iowa and big rains fell mostly east of the Mississippi River, but also west in eastern and southern Iowa. These areas are in line for more rain this week. Minnesota and northern Iowa and the Dakotas should get very little, if any, rain. Forecasts call for cooler weather this week in the Midwest and northern Great Plains. China has started with new US Soybeans purchases for Fall delivery. The longer range forecasts from NWS call for warmer and drier than normal conditions for most Soybeans areas of the US. Traders think there is less old crop demand and that less demand will mean a less tight situation for old crop Soybeans in the next few months.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1324, 1321, and 1318 July, and resistance is at 1385, 1393, and 1427 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are down with objectives of 328.00 July. Support is at 339.00, 336.00, and 333.00 July, and resistance is at 355.00, 360.00, and 367.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 5900, 5550, and 5450 July, with resistance at 6400, 6430, and 6520 July.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil futures were higher Friday and higher for the week. Futures were a little lower today, but well off the lows and near the highs of the session. Futures overall remain in a short term trading range. Futures traded a little lower earlier in the week on MPOA data that showed more production of Palm Oil in Malaysia than previously expected. News that Indonesia was contemplating a reduction in the export tax was also bad for prices. The private surveyors showed more demand so far this month in reports issued on Friday. The reports provoked the stronger Friday close. Canola closed mixed on weather concerns and on tight current supplies. Some showers, but a lot of dry weather, is in the forecast for the Prairies this week and it remains generally dry. Demand has backed off with the collapse in world vegetable oils prices, but supplies remain tight in the country. July had trended lower on the lack of demand but rebounded last week on the lack of supply. Soybean Oil was sharply lower in response to a Supreme Court ruling permitting the current government to offer some waivers to the industry and cut demand for bio fuels. Soybean Oil got a bearish shock with the news on Friday and prices were limit down early in the session. Futures closed off of the limits but were still sharply lower for the day.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 800.00, 772.00, and 746.00 July, with resistance at 826.00, 828.00, and 836.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 3250, 3230, and 3200 September, with resistance at 3550, 3590, and 3750 September.

Disclaimer: A Subsidiary of Price Holdings, Inc. – a Diversified Financial Services Firm. Member NIBA, NFA Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Investing in ...

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