Grains Report - Monday, June 23
WHEAT
General Comments: All three Wheat markets closed higher last week as growing and harvesting conditions at home and abroad have improved. Winter Wheat markets were the strongest last week, but Minneapolis had been the stronger market for the previous few weeks. There are still reports that the weather has reduced production potential in Ukraine and Russia and reports of recent dry weather in some parts of the EU and China was a concern, but there has been rains in these areas recently. Russia is forecasting a large reduction in Wheat production for the coming year. Winter crops in the Great Plains are reported to be in good condition, but Spring Wheat crops in the northern Great Plains and into Canada had been dry. Conditions in the US are now generally good.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are up Support is at 558, 556 and 549 July, with resistance at 581, 591, and 605 July. Trends in Kansas City are up. Support is at 551, 538, and 529 July, with resistance at 575, 582, and 589 July. Trends in Minneapolis are up. Support is at 625, 620, and 608 July, and resistance is at 659, 673, and 680 July.
RICE
General Comments: Rice was lower last week but recovered from the lowest levels over the second half of the week. Chart trends are mixed on the daily charts. The cash market has been slow with mostly quiet domestic markets and average export demand. Milling quality of the Rice remains below industry standards and it takes more Rough Rice to create the grain for sale to stores and exporters. Rice has emerged in most growing areas now. Condition has been rated as good but too much rain has been reported in southern areas.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1315, 1282, and 1261 July and resistance is at 1380, 1402, and 1410 July.
CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was lower last week with July the weakest month as forecasts turned hot and dry for at least a few days in the Midwest. Warmer and drier weather is in the forecast into this week after a hot and dry weekend. Warm weather returns in the forecasts for next week. A severe drought is seen in central Nebraska and moderate drought extends east in a corridor into the Chicago area. The rest of the Midwest has seen adequate or greater precipitation. Demand for Corn in world markets remains strong. Oats were lower.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 428, 425, and 422 July, and resistance is at 456, 465, and 470 July. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 358, 355, and 352 July, and resistance is at 390, 396, and 402 July.
SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans were slightly lower last week, and Soybean Meal was lower while Soybean Oil closed sharply higher. Forecasts for good growing conditions in the Midwest and as cheaper prices reported from Brazil are still being heard, but the Midwest has turned hot for the next few days or longer. The market could remain under pressure as Brazil basis levels have been under pressure the last few weeks and prices in world markets for Brazil Soybeans are now less than those from the US. Export demand is in its seasonal doldrums. Export demand remains less for US Soybeans as China has been taking almost all the export from South America. Soybean Oil was the upside leader on the news of increased biofuels requirements coming soon to the US petroleum industry.
Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1064, 1056, and 1039 July, and resistance is at 1082, 1105, and 1116 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are down. Support is at 281.00, 278.00, and 275.00 July, and resistance is at 287.00, 290.00, and 295.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are up. Support is at 5260, 5220, and 5060 July, with resistance at 5580, 5700, and 5820 July.
PALM OIL AND CANOLA
General Comments: Palm Oil futures were higher last week on news of improved export demand. Ideas that current increased production levels mean higher inventories in MPOB monthly data are still around. Ideas of increasing It was higher today on stronger Crude Oil futures. production and reduced demand are also heard. Canola was lower on speculative selling tied tzo profit taking. Trends are up on the daily charts and are turning up on the weekly charts. The weather has generally been dry for planting and crop development in the Prairies with warm and dry weather around lately.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are up. Support is at 680.00, 662.00, and 649.00 July, with resistance at 754.00, 759.00, and 765.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are up. Support is at 4030, 3980, and 3960 September, with resistance at 4210, 4310, and 4380 September.
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