Grains Report - Monday, June 21
WHEAT
General Comments: All three Wheat markets were higher on Friday in recovery trading, but Winter Wheat lower for the week. Minneapolis Spring Wheat higher. Chart trends turned back down in the Winter Wheat markets but are more mixed in Minneapolis. Its harvest time for Winter Wheat. Yield reports have generally been good. Spring Wheat areas of the US and Canada got some showers and storms, but mostly in Canada. A few more showers are in the forecast, but once again mostly for Canada. It will be cold in Canada as well. North Dakota is looking mostly dry and model runs from last week have taken some of the precipitation for the next week out of the state. Showers and rains were seen in parts of Western Texas and in Oklahoma. Drier weather is preferred for harvesting. Some rains would be very beneficial for planting and initial growth of the Spring Wheat and these are falling in some areas.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers. Temperatures will be above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down with objectives of 635 and 600 July. Support is at 657, 649, and 639 July, with resistance at 673, 676, and 689 July. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down with objectives of 575 and 550 July. Support is at 602, 588, and 584 July, with resistance at 621, 632, and 647 July. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 755, 739, and 730 July, and resistance is at 780, 784, and 805 July.
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RICE
General Comments: Rice prices were higher on Friday but lower for the week and made new lows for the move. Mostly dry conditions and warmer temperatures are currently forecast for southern US growing areas, but Louisiana could get a tropical storm moving through this weekend. Rice areas have generally been wet and northern areas have been cool, but better conditions are appearing this week. Louisiana and parts of Texas were saturated but it is drier now and crops are rated in good condition overall. Warm temperatures are reported in Arkansas and Missouri and the crop progress is improving. However, it is still very wet in Arkansas and farmer progress has been limited for the last couple of weeks. Texas and Louisiana are almost out of Rice, but there is Rice available in the other states, especially Arkansas. Milling interest in Rice is said to be slow.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1221, 1212, and 1200 July, with resistance at 1250, 1268, and 1280 July.
CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was higher on Friday but lower for the week as forecasts for the Midwest called for good rains over the next week or two. Traders were also worried about Fed actions in response to inflation. The export sales report showed demand was at the low end of trade expectations. There are also concerns about ethanol demand as the government could soon modify its waiver system and allow for a few waivers in the near term. The northern areas could see cooler temperatures and some rains in the next week. Oats were also lower last week. Canadian Oats areas look to get some very beneficial rains in the near term. Some rains were reported in Oats areas last week and these showers and storms spilled into the Dakotas and Nebraska and into western Iowa. Hot and dry conditions continue in central and northern Brazil. Longer range forecasts released by NWS call for warmer and drier weather for many important US growing areas this Summer.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are down with objectives of 620 and 617 July. Support is at 629, 603, and 588 July, and resistance is at 647, 653, and 688 July. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 365, 358, and 356 July, and resistance is at 379, 387, and 392 July.
SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Oil were sharply lower last week with Soybean Meal lower as weather concerns returned to the forefront. Traders were also worried about Fed actions in response to inflation. The export sales report showed demand was at the low end of trade expectations. Funds were the best sellers. There are also concerns about bio fuels demand as the government could soon modify its waiver system and allow for a few waivers in the near term. Forecasts call for warm and dry weather this week in the northern Midwest and northern Great Plains but showers are in the forecast for much of this week in central and southern areas. Northern areas should get some showers and storms and cooler temperatures this weekend or next week. China should start with new US Soybeans purchases soon for Fall delivery and reports indicate they have bought about 8 cargoes on the big move lower. Soybeans futures recovered sharply on Friday in part on the news. The longer-range forecasts from NWS call for warmer and drier than normal conditions for most Soybeans areas of the US.
Overnight News: China bought 336,000 tons of US new crop Soybeans and unknown destinations bought 120,000 tons of US new crop Soybeans.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down with no objectives. Support is at 1375, 1355, and 1324 July, and resistance is at 1423, 1448, and 1460 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are down with objectives of 359.00 and 347.00 July. Support is at 373.00, 369.00, and 366.00 July, and resistance is at 378.00, 382.00, and 387.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are down with no objectives. Support is at 5450, 5350, and 5260 July, with resistance at 5920, 6010, and 6220 July.
CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil futures were higher Friday on stronger overnight Chicago Soybean Oil futures, but down a lot for the week. Futures were lower today on word that the Indonesian government was considering reducing its export taxes. Some of the weakness on the weekly charts came with a change in the front months, but part of the weakness was on ideas of weaker demand and potentially stronger production. Demand has been less so far this month and the market fears the loss of Indian demand due to the big Coronavirus outbreak in India that could cut demand. However, prices are very high in India and imports are needed. Canola closed sharply lower on weather concerns and Chicago price action. Some showers, but a lot of dry weather, is in the forecast for the Prairies this week and it remains generally dry. Demand has backed off with the collapse in world vegetable oils prices. Soybean Oil was sharply lower in response to ideas that the current government might offer some waivers to the industry and cut demand for biofuels. There are many who think this will not happen, but many who are worried it will.
Overnight News: SGS said that Malaysian Palm Oil exports are now 962,184 tons, up 11% from last month. AmSpec said that exports are now 937,135 tons, down about 1.8% from last month.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are down with no objectives. Support is at 762.00, 754.00, and 750.00 July, with resistance at 816.00, 828.00, and 836.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 3250, 3230, and 3200 September, with resistance at 3550, 3590, and 3750 September.
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