Grains Report - Monday, July 12

WHEAT
General Comments: Winter Wheat markets were lower last week and Minneapolis Spring Wheat was a little lower as the Winter Wheat harvest continues. Yield reports have generally been good in Winter Wheat areas but there have been mixed results reported in some Great Plains states. Quality has been generally average. Minneapolis was lower on forecasts of rainfall for the Dakotas. The rains will not be enough to change the overall drought situation but will help in the short term. Trends are mixed on the daily charts for the Winter Wheat markets. The harvest should help keep the pressure on futures for a little while longer. However, the Spring Wheat situation is different and a short crop is increasingly likely. There are ideas that the coming rains will not help much as they are late. It will turn cooler but will heat up again after a week. The dry and hot weather seen to date have produced very low crop condition ratings and conditions are not expected to improve much if at all in coming weeks.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near to below normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will be near normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down with objectives of 586 and 524 September. Support is at 610, 594, and 588 September, with resistance at 638, 645, and 648 September. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 578, 568, and 562 September, with resistance at 608, 613, and 628 September. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 796, 779, and 757 September, and resistance is at 820, 827, and 835 September.

Photo by Denes Kozma on Unsplash

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed a little higher on Friday but lower for the week as the longs continue to liquidate due to good crop conditions and higher than expected USDA plantings estimates. The crop overall appears to be in good shape. Growing conditions have been mixed at best with many areas getting too much rain. Rice areas have generally been wet. Louisiana and parts of Mississippi were saturated and are still reported to be wetter than desired for strong production and good quality. Some big storms are in the forecast for the rest of the week. Warm temperatures are reported in Arkansas and Missouri and the crop progress is improving. However, it is still very wet in Arkansas and farmer progress has been limited for the last couple of weeks. Texas has been wet.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1275, 1256, and 1250 September, with resistance at 1311, 1331, and 1340 September.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was lower last week as the weather became greatly improved for pollination. It is generally cool with showers around in the Midwest. Weather forecasts now call for cooler temperatures and generous rains in the Midwest, including in the very dry northwest parts of the belt. However, the northwest will stay generally too dry. It will not be as hot in the Great Plains and western Midwest as it has been. Pollination is coming and it looks like pollination will happen under good conditions. Reports of damaging cold weather in Brazil a week ago supported the market. Temperatures got close to or just below freezing in parts of southern Brazil and on into Paraguay. Temperatures are more moderate now. There are ideas of losses to Corn in these areas, and some ideas are that the losses could be extensive in affected areas. These losses are on top of the losses suffered due to drought in the Safhrina areas seen until recently. Oats were higher. Canadian Oats areas look to get some rain in the next couple of weeks, but US areas showed mixed conditions in the weekly USDA updates. Longer range forecasts released by NWS call for warmer and drier weather for many important US growing areas this Summer.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 521, 516, and 505 September, and resistance is at 550, 555, and 570 September. Trends in Oats are mixed to up with objectives of 358 and 410 September. Support is at 384, 382, and 371 September, and resistance is at 392, 401, and 403 September.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were generally lower last week in response to the weather forecasts calling for cool and wet conditions. Soybeans held the weekly trading range last week and closed in the middle of the range. There are many areas that do not have good Soybeans in the US. Soybeans conditions in central production area are often too wet and have suffered. The weather forecasts changed to wetter and cooler and the crop needs dry conditions and some heat . Minnesota and northern Iowa and the Dakotas have been very hot and dry but should get very beneficial rain. Forecasts call for cooler weather this week in the Midwest and northern Great Plains, and it should generally be wet. China has started with new US Soybeans purchases for Fall delivery. The longer range forecasts from NWS call for warmer and drier than normal conditions for most Soybeans areas of the US.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1334, 1316, and 1299 August, and resistance is at 1400, 1408, and 1418 August. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 347.00, 341.00, and 338.00 August, and resistance is at 367.00, 375.00, and 379.00 August. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 5900, 5770, and 5460 August, with resistance at 6560, 6590, and 6800 August.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil futures were sharply higher Friday on a lower Ringgit and in sympathy with Chicago. Futures were higher for the week. Palm Oil was lower today on increased monthly sto ck totals by MPOB. Trends are mixed on the daily charts but are starting to turn up. The private surveyors showed more demand for last month in reports issued last week and ideas are that the stronger demand can continue as India has cut its import taxes. Canola closed higher on rumors of export buying and on weather concerns. Some showers are in the forecast for the Prairies this week and it remains generally dry. The showers have a chance to be very beneficial as the Prairies crops are in big trouble now due to previous hot and dry weather. Demand has improved a little bit with the recently weaker prices.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are up with objectives of 889.00 and 961.00 November. Support is at 817.00, 796.00, and 762.00 November, with resistance at 844.00, 850.00, and 856.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 3890 and 3960 September. Support is at 3810, 3700, and 3680 September, with resistance at 3930, 3980, and 4000 September.

Disclaimer: A Subsidiary of Price Holdings, Inc. – a Diversified Financial Services Firm. Member NIBA, NFA Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Investing in ...

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