Grains Report - Monday, Feb. 26

assorted food in sacks

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Wheat

General Comments: Wheat was mixed last week, with Chicago Winter What markets holding a little higher but Minneapolis Spring Wheat closing a little lower, on big world supplies and low world prices. Russian export prices were reported at a new low yesterday. Export sales remain weak on competition from Rusia, Ukraine, and the EU as those countries look to export a lot of Wheat in the coming period. EU offers were unchanged to help keep US offers from falling. Russian and Ukraine's offers are weaker. Some support came from the bombings in the Red Sea that have interrupted commerce. It is warm in the US and Canada this week. Cooler temperatures are also forecast for next week. Black Sea offers are still plentiful and Russian prices appear to be weakening.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 572, 555, and 544 March, with resistance at 592, 600, and 607 March. Trends in Kansas City are nixed. Support is at 563, 560, and 554 March, with resistance at 588, 594, and 611 March. Trends in Minneapolis are down with objectives of 639 and 628 March. Support is at 636, 630, and 624 March, and resistance is at 657, 667, and 672 March.
 

Rice

General Comments: Rice closed higher after a wild week. The close was strong and kept hopes for more rallies intact. Strong demand for export continues. The overseas markets feature less production in Brazil and India and it appears that the lack of offer from these markets is supporting increased demand for US Rice and prices here in the US. Warmer and wetter weather is expected this week and next on the Delta and Texas and soil moisture conditions for the next crop should improve.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1831, 1808, and 1792 March and resistance is at 1874, 1889, and 1919 March.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of February 20, 2024
 

Corn And Oats

General Comments: Corn and Oats were lower last week on big supplies and reports of limited demand. Futures are much lower than just a few months ago and a short covering rally is increasingly expected but has not come yet. Funds remain very large shorts in the market. Basis levels have started to firm in the US as processors look for supplies amid tight farmer holding patterns. The weather forecasts for Argentina are improving with more showers expected this week but coming after a hot and dry period first. On the other hand, more rain is forecast for central and northern Brazil and the Soybeans harvest could be delayed and that could mean less Corn planted area The planting progress reports to date indicate rapid progress so this concern is lessening. Soybean quality could be reduced as well. The market anticipates increased selling from US producers.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are down with no objectives. Support is at 399, 396, and 393 March, and resistance is at 410, 416, and 421 March. Trends in Oats are mixed to down with objectives of 360 and 343 March. Support is at 360, 350, and 330 March, and resistance is at 380, 389, and 393 March.
 

Soybeans

General Comments: Soybeans and the products were lower and made new lows for the move last week and trends are down on the daily and weekly charts. A short covering rally is increasingly expected but has not come yet. Funds remain very large shorts in the market. Basis levels in the country are reported to be firming as processors look for supplies and farmers remain tight holders. Rains are in the forecast after the extreme weather seen over the next week in Argentina. Such rains would be beneficial for reproducing Corn and Soybeans. The precipitation keeps falling in Brazil and is expected to continue through this week. The rains could be detrimental to the quality Soybeans and the planting dates for Winter Corn. Support also came from reports of reduced Brazil production.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down with objectives of 1136 March. Support is at 1132, 1120, and 1108 March, and resistance is at 1164, 1180, and 1200 March. Trends in Soybean Meal are down with objectives of 312.00 March. Support is at 326.00, 323.00, and 320.00 March, and resistance is at 339.00, 349.00, and 356.00 March. Trends in Soybean Oil are down with no objectives. Support is at 4340, 4280, a6nd 4220 March, with resistance at 4460, 4530, and 4680 March.
 

Canola And Palm Oil

General Comments: Palm Oil was higher last week on production problems in Southeast Asia but as the export pace is below expectations. Ideas of weaker production ideas against good demand still support the market ove4rall. MPOB said that January stocks were 2.02 million tons, down 11.8% from December. Exports were stronger than expected and production was a little weaker. The fundamentals of average demand against a weaker supply outlook are still around to keep prices supported. Trends are mixed on the daily charts and on the weekly charts. Canola was lower with Chicago. There are still forecasts for better rains in Argentina after a dry spell ends in a week or so and improving weather in Brazil. Current forecasts call for generally improved growing conditions in Brazil this week. The Canola crop is harvested, and it is in bins, so it will take some price movement to get new farm sales. Trends are trying to turn down on the daily and weekly charts in this market.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 566.00, 560.00, and 544.00 March, with resistance at 585.00, 594.00, and 604.00 March. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 3790, 3720, and 3760 May, with resistance at 3860, 3920, and 3980 May.


More By This Author:

Softs Report - Monday, Feb. 26
Softs Report - Friday, Feb. 23
Grains Report - Thursday, Feb. 22

Disclaimer: A Subsidiary of Price Holdings, Inc. – a Diversified Financial Services Firm. Member NIBA, NFA Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Investing in ...

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