Grains Report - Monday, Aug. 4
WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat was lower last week, with Chicago the weaker market. Ideas of solid harvest progress and good yields are still around and are forcing the selling. Harvest conditions for Winter Wheat appear to be good in the US and Spring Wheat development is currently good. Rains have been good in the northern Great Plains but Canada has been a little too dry for best yield potential and the northern Plains had hot and dry areas earlier in the year. Canada could still produce an average to above average crop. Russia is still being watched for dry weather that has so far hurt yields and Ukraine is watched for the same reason and because of the war that could destroy some fields. Russian Black Sea prices have been firming as producers are not making sales and are looking for higher prices to offset yield losses. Southern hemisphere crops appear to be good. The weekly export sales report showed sales within trade expectations.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down. Support is at 515, 508 and 496 September, with resistance at 568, 572, and 582 September. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down. Support is at 516, 504, and 498 September, with resistance at 550, 565, and 578 September. Trends in Minneapolis are not available.
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RICE
General Comments Rice was a little lower again last week on what is reported to be fund and large speculator selling. Chart trends are still down on the daily charts. The cash market has been slow with mostly quiet with low bids from buyers in domestic markets and average or less export demand. New crop harvesting has started in Louisiana with reports of good but not great yields and quality. There is more concern about the crops in Arkansas where it has turned very hot. Milling quality of the old crop Rice remains below industry standards and it takes more Rough Rice to create the grain for sale to stores and exporters. Rice is heading in most growing areas now and harvest has started near the Gulf Coast.
Chart Analysis: Trends are down. Support is at 1206, 1194, and 1182 September and resistance is at 1240, 1248, and 1276 September.
CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was lower last week on what appeared to be commercial buying based on another week of strong export sales and speculative selling on widespread record crop production predictions based on additional forecasts for improving weather for the Midwest. Cooler temperatures should return for the next few days, then a slow warming trend could develop. Most of the Midwest has seen adequate or greater precipitation and production ideas are high. Yield estimates near or above 186 bushels per acre are frequently heard. Demand for Corn in world markets remains strong. The weekly export sales report showed that sales were at the high end of trade expectations. Oats were lower but held recent lows on the weekly charts.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 387, 384, and 381 September, and resistance is at 414, 418, and 426 September. Trends in Oats are mixed to down. Support is at 349, 339, and 335 September, and resistance is at 383, 388, and 394 September.
SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were lower again yesterday as good growing conditions continue in the Midwest. Temperatures should turn cooler early this week and then turn a little warmer. Prices are now reported to be higher in Brazil, but China and other buyers are still buying there for political reasons. Export demand remains less for US Soybeans as China has been taking almost all the export from South America. The weekly export sales report showed sales within expectations of the trade.
Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down. Support is at 966, 956, and 944 September, and resistance is at 985, 995, and 1004 September. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 263.00, 260.00, and 257.00 September, and resistance is at 274.00, 276.00, and 281.00 September. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 5380, 5290, and 5160 September, with resistance at 5590, 5660, and 5760 September.
PALM OIL AND CANOLA
General Comments: Palm Oil futures were higher last week but the rally appears to be limited for now. There was talk that India will soon be buying a lot with festivals coming soon. Ideas that current increased production levels mean higher inventories in MPOB monthly data are still around. Canola was a little lower. Trends are mixed to up on the daily charts and on the weekly charts. The weather has generally been dry for crop development in the Prairies with warm and dry weather still around.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 674.00, 665.00, and 660.00 November, with resistance at 713.00, 717.00, and 738.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are up. Support is at 4130, 4080, and 4020 October, with resistance at 4350, 4410, and 4470 October.
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