Photo by Evi Radauscher on Unsplash
 

Wheat:

General Comments: Wheat markets were lower on another week of bad export sales and on reports that Russia will meet with the UN on the Black Sea Corridor deal with Russia and Turkey and the UN. Uncertainty about the Black Sea Corridor deal continued. There remains buying tied to uncertainty about exports from the Black Sea and on bad growing conditions in the western Great Plains, where it remains very dry but where showers and potentially very beneficial precipitation are possible. Russia has said that the current system cannot last and seems ready to kill the deal completely. It has been talking to Turkey about the deal and plans to talk to the UN very soon. Ideas that big Russian offers and cheaper Russian prices would be a feature for a while in the world market was the driving force for the weaker prices. Ideas are that both Australia and Russia are harvesting record to near-record Wheat crops this year. Both countries will have a lot of Wheat to export.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down with objectives of 645 and 602 May. Support is at 654, 649, and 642 May, with resistance at 685, 689, and 707 May. Trends in Kansas City are down with objectives of 809 and 742 May. Support is at 827, 810, and 803 May, with resistance at 862, 876, and 886 May. Trends in Minneapolis are down with objectives of 840, 827, and 823 May. Support is at 833, 827, and 825 May, and resistance is at 870, 876, and 895 May.
 

Rice:

General Comments: Rice was lower last week. The main feature of trade was the collapse of May on Thursday in flat price action and on carry spreads after another very poor weekly export sales report. The spread recovered a little on Friday. Longs tried to move out of May and into other months but had a lot of trouble getting this done. It has been a big week for the carry spreads in this market as traders start to prepare for May deliveries starting at the end of this month. Trends are down on the May daily charts but other months show sideways trends at worst. The USDA reports released a week ago are the reason for the buying seen in recent sessions. Medium and short grain estimates were unchanged but ending stocks for long grain dropped by 6.0 million cwt as did the ending stocks estimates for all Rice. The moves shocked the market and futures went higher. Offers seem hard to find right now. Export demand has been uneven and was low last week. Export demand has been an issue for the market all year. Mills are milling for the domestic market in Arkansas and are bidding for some Rice.
Overnight News: The Delta should get widespread rain. Temperatures should be near to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with objectives of 1639 and 1556 May. Support is at 1675, 1652, and 1625 May and resistance is at 1701, 1725, and 1746 May.

Corn And Oats:

General Comments: Corn and Oats closed lower last week, with Corn finding selling pressure from a bad weekly export sales report but still finding support from little US producer selling interest. The weather was wet and cool in the Midwest last week and producers were not selling Corn, but the market wants Corn now. It is now wet and cold in the Midwest, but producers are still inclined to wait and might have trouble sourcing trucks to haul grain, anyway. Most are thinking about getting into these fields and are not even worried about the market. US prices are currently very competitive with those from South America as Brazil concentrates on Soybeans exports and not Corn and US demand has improved because of the price differentials and the lack of a Brazil offer into the market. This trend should continue for the next few months. Prices from South America should now remain strong as countries there concentrate on Soybeans exports and not Corn. NOAA is forecasting that La Nina will develop this Summer and replace El Nino. US growing conditions are usually good when this happens.
Overnight News: China canceled purchases of 327,000 tons of US Corn.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 660, 652, and 643 May, and resistance is at 671, 682, and 686 May. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 339, 332, and 328 May, and resistance is at 345, 349, and 353 May.

Soybeans:

General Comments: Soybeans and the products were lower last week reports that Brazil basis levels are so low that some American processors can import more cheaply than buying from US producers and shipping by rail. The weekly export sales report showed bad sales. Brazil has been selling a lot of Soybeans to China to feed its record Soybeans demand. Brazil has a very good crop, but the additional Soybeans grown in Brazil will be partially wiped out by the losses in Argentina. Argentina has been forced to import from Brazil to keep its crushing facilities operating. The US might sell to China for storage purposes as well and could pick up some new business from countries other than China as Brazil ports will be loaded with ships bound for China. The US has also bought Soybeans in Brazil this year due to the extreme differences in prices. Production ideas in Argentina are no higher than 25 million tons, about half a crop, and are mostly lower than this amount. Forecasts from NOAA for very good growing conditions in the Midwest were also a factor, but there is too much rain in most growing areas right now.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down with objectives of 1434 May. Support is at 1480, 1468 and 1462 May, and resistance is at 1504, 1511, and 1522 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are down with objectives of 444.00, 430.00, and 428.00 May. Support is at 435.00, 422.00, and 417.00 May, and resistance is at 455.00, 469.00, and 466.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 5090 and 4750 May. Support is at 5260, 5150, and 5000 May, with resistance at 5460, 5630, and 5810 May.

Canola And Palm Oil:

General Comments: Palm Oil was a little higher in quiet trading before the start of the Eid holiday. There are ideas that prices can remain elevated due to bad weather in Malaysia but demand remains weaker than hoped for from India and China. In fact, exports so far this month are down about 25% from last month. Indonesia has not been offering as it tries to build stocks for its own biofuels industry but it is expected to start offering very soon. Canola was a little higher last week on planting and fieldwork delays that are returning as the weather is cold and wet again. Trends are sideways on the daily and weekly charts. Brazil is expected to dominate the oilseeds market for the next few months. Reports indicate that domestic demand has been strong due to favorable crush margins.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to down with objectives of 739.00, 706.00, and 680.00 May. Support is at 756.00, 745.00, and 733.00 May, with resistance at 772.00, 787.00, and 789.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 3640, 3530, and 3460 July, with resistance at 3820, 3880, and 3940 July.

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Softs Report - Tuesday, April 18