Grains Report - Friday, Sept. 17

rice field during daytime closed-up photography

Image Source: Unsplash

WHEAT

General Comments: Wheat was lower in all three markets in consolidation trading. Trends are still turning up on the daily charts. Dry weather in southern Russia as well as the northern US Great Plains and Canadian Prairies remains a supportive feature in the market although the weather has become old news. Crop size estimates in Russia have been reduced. The Russian weather has been good for production in northern and western areas but is still trending dry in southern areas and into Kazakhstan. Europe is expecting top yields in some areas but less yield in others and parts of eastern Europe and northern Russia are expecting strong yields.

Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be above
normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers. Temperatures will be near to above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers or dry conditions. Temperatures should average near normal.

Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to up with objectives of 728 December. Support is at 690, 677, and 657 December, with resistance at 714, 733, and 745 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to up with objectives of 728 December. Support is at 697, 688, and 670 December, with resistance at 720, 730, and 735 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to up with objectives of 903 and 926 December. Support is at 899, 884, and 862 December, and resistance is at 903, 915, and 927 December.

RICE

General Comments: Rice closed a little lower yesterday in consolidation trading. Hurricane Nicholas came onshore near Houston and has moved to the northeast to threaten crops in Louisiana and perhaps Mississippi. The first crop has been largely harvested in Texas and will soon be harvested in Louisiana, but the second crop s still in the field and is still at risk of loss in both states. Harvesting continues in Louisiana and Texas and will start to wind down in both states over the next couple of weeks. A delayed harvest is expected in Mississippi and Arkansas but a few producers are starting to harvest now. Yield reports and quality reports have been acceptable to many in Texas and are called good in Louisiana. The harvest pace is expected to be slow

Overnight News: The Delta should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be near to below normal.

Chart Analysis: Trends are up with objectives of 1381 November. Support is at 1350, 1343, and 1335 November, with resistance at 1380, 1390, and 1401 November.

CORN AND OATS

General Comments: Corn was lower in consolidation trading. Trends are still up on the daily charts and the charts show that a bottom formation has been completed. Traders are now waiting on the harvest and yield reports but the gut slot of the harvest is still a couple of weeks away. Ideas are that the yield reports will be high and will confirm the USDA production estimates or even find better yields. However, there have been reports of diseases in Illinois fields so record production might not happen in that state. There are still the drought-reduced crops in the northwestern Corn Belt and northern Great Plains to be counted as well. Most of the elevators along the Mississippi are starting to export again which is good news for nearby demand. Electricity has been restored and the elevators are transloading grain if they are not fully open yet. Another tropical storm is coming to southern Louisiana but should be mostly a big rain event. Winds are expected to be moderate. The weather remains a feature of the trade but is less important now as the Corn is filling kernels and starting to mature. Ideas are that Brazil's Corn production could be less than 85 million tons so reduced production estimates are expected in coming reports. Oats were higher yesterday as the weather remains bad for production even with the crop near or in harvest.

Overnight News:/

Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to up with objectives of 547 and 573 December. Support is at 524, 520, and 513 December, and resistance is at 543, 548, and 558 December. Trends in Oats are up with objectives of 545 and 581 December. Support is at 512, 508, and 498 December, and resistance is at 538, 544, and 550 December.

SOYBEANS

General Comments: Soybeans closed lower as did Soybean Oil. The destruction of Gulf port facilities along the Mississippi River near New Orleans was still a factor in the trade but the elevators are coming on line and exports have started to resume. The hurricane moved onshore in Louisiana a week ago and did extensive damage to the state, including the grain export elevators. The state also lost electrical posser in all affected areas but the power to the export elevators is being restored. Another system is in Texas now and is threatening to move into Louisiana with a lot of rain but not so much wind.

Overnight News: China bought another 132,000 tons of US Soybeans.

Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1270, 1263, and 1241 November, and resistance is at 1300, 1306, and 1309 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 336.00, 333.00, and 331.00 October, and resistance is at 344.00, 349.00, and 354.00 October. Trends in Soybean Oil mixed. Support is at 5670, 5620, and 5520 October, with resistance at 5850, 5950, and 6010 October

CANOLA AND PALM OIL

General Comments: Palm Oil closed higher again yesterday on strong demand news from the private sources. It was closed today for a holiday. Export volumes were up very significantly for Malaysia for the month so far. Ideas of strong export demand, especially from India, kept futures higher today. Exports were not strong last month and the trade saw big ending stocks when MPOB released its monthly data last week. Ideas are that Palm Oil got too expensive when compared to the other vegetable oils markets. There are ideas of tight supplies due to labor problems. There are just not enough workers in the fields due to Coronavirus restrictions. Production has also been down to more than offset the export losses so prices have trended higher. Canola closed lower on Chicago price action and in consolidation trading. StatsCan forecast production much below trade expectations on Tuesday and follow-through buying from the report was seen yesterday. Production ideas are down due to the extreme weather seen in these areas. It remains generally dry and warm in the Prairies. The Prairies crops are in big trouble now due to previous hot and dry weather.

Overnight News:/

Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 864.00, 849.00, and 830.00 November, with resistance at 900.00, 902.00, and 905.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 42370, 41290, and 4250 November, with resistance at 4480, 4510, and 4530 November.

DJ Canadian Grain Handling Summary
WINNIPEG–The following are Canadian grain handling summary
statistics for the week ended Sept. 12, 2021. Figures in thousands of
metric tons.
Source: Canadian Grain Commission.
Durum
Wheat Wheat Oats Barley Flax Canola Peas Corn Total*
COMMERCIAL STOCKS
This Week 2665.7 562.8 337.5 546.6 25.0 962.8 523.4 68.2 6087.7
Week Ago 2458.7 463.7 355.0 468.8 23.3 603.2 593.6 68.7 5394.8
Year Ago 2484.3 783.1 353.4 468.1 22.4 1150.9 644.1 46.6 6690.2
PRODUCER DELIVERIES
This Week 385.6 114.5 50.2 188.3 3.0 685.9 81.9 7.3 1576.1
Week Ago 578.3 114.9 58.3 197.7 2.5 391.9 76.6 7.2 1493.4
To Date 2060.6 381.7 301.5 760.5 11.4 1516.4 797.5 33.9 6245.0
Year Ago 2328.0 522.5 431.6 560.8 19.1 2143.5 1171.1 49.0 7873.2
TERMINAL RECEIPTS
This Week 332.4 71.1 0.2 92.9 0.0 29.8 124.8 2.7 704.5
Week Ago 286.5 24.6 0.0 43.9 0.0 11.8 98.2 0.1 493.2
To Date 2452.2 325.4 43.9 158.5 0.8 275.1 399.5 28.6 3884.1
Year Ago 3505.3 546.2 55.0 274.8 16.8 1279.2 538.4 13.1 6575.3
EXPORTS
This Week 218.5 63.3 41.9 15.4 0.8 13.7 209.2 0.0 568.4
Week Ago 143.0 133.9 27.2 1.3 0.7 77.1 34.5 0.0 479.2
To Date 1754.0 475.6 189.3 19.6 7.0 297.1 320.4 0.0 3161.9
Year Ago 2521.8 370.5 208.2 227.0 39.3 1194.2 453.0 10.1 5245.1
DOMESTIC DISAPPEARANCE
This Week 78.2 2.3 13.6 37.2 0.6 159.6 6.6 13.7 337.8
Week Ago 163.2 2.1 16.9 31.3 1.1 151.3 5.1 24.7 417.0
To Date 628.6 18.0 90.0 157.8 5.1 939.0 30.2 101.1 2102.3
Year Ago 675.9 37.6 76.1 134.7 7.7 1189.5 19.4 119.2 2403.3
*Totals include data from other crops not shown including rye, soybeans,
canaryseed, mustard seed, beans, lentils and chickpeas.
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com, or 204-414-
9084)

Malaysia’s Sep 1-15 palm oil exports rose 45.3 pct -SGS – Reuters News
16-Sep-2021 09:14:24 PM
SINGAPORE, Sept 17 (Reuters) – Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for Sep. 1-15 rose 45.3 percent to 839,533 tonnes from 577,972 tonnes shipped during Aug. 1-15, cargo surveyor Societe Generale de Surveillance said on Friday.
Breakdown of SGS palm export figures for Sep. 1-15 compared to a month ago (in tonnes):
PALM PRODUCTS
Sep 1-15 Aug 1-15
Crude palm oil 208,408 91,526
RBD palm oil 55,510 40,690
RBD palm olein 299,560 168,766
RBD palm stearin 78,335 73,814
Crude palm kernel oil 19,350 5,300
Processed palm kernel oil 12,250 17,325
Oleochemicals 36,550 23,817

Midwest Weather Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers north. Temperatures should average above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
June July May May May
July July July July
August July July July

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Sep 15
WINNIPEG–The following are the closing cash canola prices
from ICE Futures for Sept. 15, 2021.
Source: ICE Futures
CANOLA
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Spot Price Basis Contract Change
*Par Region 872.30 0.00 Nov 21 dn 4.40
Basis: Thunder Bay 929.80 50.00 Nov 21 up 7.50
Basis: Vancouver 964.80 85.00 Nov 21 up 7.50
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com, or
204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Sept 17
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 1187.50 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Oct 1172.50 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Nov/Dec 1127.50 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1042.50 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 977.50 -10.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 1190.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Oct 1175.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Nov/Dec 1130.00 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1045.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 980.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 1120.00 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 1015.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 4,600.00 -80.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 318.00 -02.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.17)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Sep 17
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 197,706 lots, or 11.77 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-21 5,950 5,977 5,910 5,956 5,900 5,953 53 134,854 154,927
Jan-22 5,941 5,982 5,926 5,964 5,917 5,959 42 43,410 56,602
Mar-22 5,950 5,976 5,925 5,960 5,917 5,954 37 7,339 20,243
May-22 5,929 5,985 5,929 5,966 5,929 5,964 35 1,329 3,058
Jul-22 5,904 5,952 5,901 5,938 5,899 5,928 29 10,768 5,006
Sep-22 5,893 5,895 5,884 5,885 5,885 5,890 5 6 6
Corn
Turnover: 642,991 lots, or 1.57 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-21 2,440 2,459 2,440 2,450 2,451 2,451 0 69,336 159,792
Jan-22 2,442 2,448 2,434 2,437 2,448 2,441 -7 486,668 1,018,734
Mar-22 2,463 2,469 2,456 2,459 2,470 2,463 -7 44,517 168,426
May-22 2,491 2,496 2,484 2,484 2,496 2,489 -7 30,916 93,381
Jul-22 2,503 2,511 2,493 2,494 2,514 2,503 -11 11,355 32,051
Sep-22 2,511 2,514 2,505 2,507 2,517 2,509 -8 199 427
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,614,527 lots, or 5.71 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-21 3,830 3,886 3,818 3,835 3,799 3,850 51 100,316 112,839
Dec-21 3,726 3,775 3,718 3,741 3,695 3,749 54 10,385 79,590
Jan-22 3,549 3,591 3,548 3,570 3,533 3,570 37 1,212,982 1,279,393
Mar-22 3,340 3,364 3,327 3,353 3,340 3,346 6 39,855 299,755
May-22 3,248 3,268 3,228 3,260 3,252 3,247 -5 196,871 361,212
Jul-22 3,223 3,233 3,206 3,229 3,226 3,219 -7 15,865 71,770
Aug-22 3,285 3,289 3,259 3,285 3,285 3,274 -11 34,461 32,602
Sep-22 3,283 3,286 3,258 3,283 3,283 3,272 -11 3,792 3,323
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,203,067 lots, or 10.06 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Oct-21 9,242 9,332 9,000 9,056 9,200 9,220 20 1,033 3,108
Nov-21 9,190 9,236 8,866 8,908 9,176 9,068 -108 23,439 55,491
Dec-21 8,922 8,942 8,534 8,580 8,896 8,796 -100 37,435 62,713
Jan-22 8,516 8,566 8,160 8,190 8,524 8,352 -172 1,080,889 374,469
Feb-22 8,306 8,316 7,918 7,930 8,264 8,174 -90 22,927 53,447
Mar-22 8,196 8,196 7,752 7,784 8,108 7,998 -110 14,635 15,497
Apr-22 7,972 8,028 7,656 7,680 7,974 7,858 -116 6,784 18,444
May-22 7,898 7,922 7,552 7,590 7,870 7,728 -142 15,745 23,074
Jun-22 7,668 7,668 7,480 7,480 7,774 7,550 -224 5 537
Jul-22 7,714 7,714 7,426 7,452 7,636 7,552 -84 10 481
Aug-22 7,712 7,712 7,318 7,368 7,634 7,492 -142 42 1,494
Sep-22 7,674 7,674 7,300 7,358 7,638 7,422 -216 123 112
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 1,025,513 lots, or 91.81 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-21 9,588 9,670 9,316 9,354 9,574 9,504 -70 29,995 69,328
Dec-21 9,306 9,414 9,124 9,152 9,370 9,276 -94 22,266 62,535
Jan-22 9,094 9,130 8,830 8,864 9,094 8,970 -124 900,884 459,420
Mar-22 8,724 8,762 8,470 8,524 8,738 8,624 -114 14,980 74,458
May-22 8,530 8,548 8,300 8,314 8,514 8,410 -104 36,799 79,959
Jul-22 8,392 8,402 8,150 8,170 8,378 8,282 -96 11,709 29,227
Aug-22 8,270 8,294 8,052 8,090 8,276 8,174 -102 8,799 16,495
Sep-22 8,226 8,228 8,042 8,042 8,254 8,132 -122 81 136
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Disclaimer: A Subsidiary of Price Holdings, Inc. – a Diversified Financial Services Firm. Member NIBA, NFA Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Investing in ...

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