Grains Report - Friday, Oct. 1

WHEAT
General Comments: Winter Wheat was higher even as USDA greatly cut production of HRW. Production was just 749 million bushels instead of the previous USDA estimate of 777 million. That forced USDA to cut Winter Wheat and All Wheat production as well. Minneapolis Spring Wheat was a little higher as USDA cut production in line with trade estimates at 331 million bushels. Trends started to turn higher in response to the USDA reports on the daily charts. Russia could severely restrict Wheat exports due to production lost to drought and those ideas have kept demand hopes for US Wheat alive. Production is less this year in Russia and internal prices have been strong. Dry weather in southern Russia as well as the northern US Great Plains and Canadian Prairies remains a supportive feature in the market although the weather has become old news. The Russian weather has been good for production in northern and western areas but is still trending dry in southern areas and into Kazakhstan. Siberian Spring Wheat conditions have been very good. Europe is expecting top yields in some areas but less yield in others and parts of eastern Europe and northern Russia are expecting strong yields. European quality is a problem due to too much rain in some areas and not enough in others.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated to scattered showers. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see scattered showers today and tomorrow, then mostly dry conditions . Temperatures will be above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to up with objectives of 738 and 769 December. Support is at 718, 706, and 701 December, with resistance at 733, 745, and 772 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to up with objectives of 747 and 784 December. Support is at 721, 715, and 704 December, with resistance at 738, 747, and 769 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 895, 880, and 862 December, and resistance is at 924, 933, and 940 December.

Image by ImageParty from Pixabay

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed lower yesterday on what appeared to be speculative selling based on deteriorating chart patterns. The first crop has been largely harvested in Texas and in Louisiana, but the second crop s still in the field and is still at risk of loss in both states. Harvesting will start to wind down in both states now. Mississippi and Arkansas producers are at harvest now. Yield reports and quality reports have been acceptable to many in Texas and are called good in Louisiana. The reports have been good in both Arkansas and Mississippi.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions or isolated showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to down with objectives of 1322, 1320, and 1292 November. Support is at 1352, 1343, and 1329 November, with resistance at 1380, 1385, and 1401 November.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was a little lower in response to the USDA reports. The quarterly stocks were higher than anticipated, but production last year was less than anticipated. Demand has not been good and demand will be a feature in the trade moving forward. Trends are mixed to down on the weekly charts and are mixed on the daily charts. Traders are now waiting on the harvest and yield reports but the gut slot of the harvest is still a few days away. Ideas are that the yield reports will be high and will confirm the USDA production estimates or even find better yields. However, there have been reports of diseases in Illinois fields so record production might not happen in that state. Initial yield reports have been mixed, with some lower yields reported due to disease. There are still the drought reduced crops in the northwestern Corn Belt and northern Great Plains to be counted as well. Most of the elevators along the Mississippi are exporting again which is good news for nearby demand.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are up with objectives of 547 and 573 December. Support is at 527, 523, and 513 December, and resistance is at 543, 548, and 558 December. Trends in Oats are mixed to up with objectives of 597 and 636 December. Support is at 581, 564, and 558 December, and resistance is at 594, 606, and 606 December.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal closed sharply lower yesterday in response to the USDA reports that showed much higher than expected stocks levels of 256 million bushels. USDA raised production from last year to account for the increased stocks as demand was known. Crush and export data are very available to the problems were all on the supply side. The weekly charts still show down trends for all three markets, and the daily chart trends are down in Soybeans and Soybean Meal. Chinese demand has been supportive until now as the country was active in the US Soybeans market over the weekend. Harvest is underway for Soybeans. Gulf port elevators are coming on line and exports are increasing. The weekly export sales report showed good sales and China was the big buyer.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down with objectives of 1246, 1233, and 1204 November. Support is at 1241, 1228, and 1202 November, and resistance is at 1282, 1295, and 1297 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are down with objectives of 329.00 and 319.00 December. Support is at 329.00, 326.00, and 323.00 December, and resistance is at 336.00 338.00, and 341.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are up with objectives of 5990 and 6150 December. Support is at 5830, 5700, and 5550 December, with resistance at 5950, 6000, and 6080 December

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was lower today on long liquidation on the back of weaker Chicago SBO prices. The weekly chart trends are turning up again. Export volumes were up very significantly for Malaysia for the month so far. Ideas are that Palm Oil got too expensive when compared to the other vegetable oils markets. There are ideas of tight supplies due to labor problems. There are just not enough workers in the fields due to Coronavirus restrictions. Production has also been down to more than offset the export losses so prices have trended higher. Canola closed a little lower on Chicago price action as the harvest is underway amid good conditions in the Prairies. The losses were very moderate when compared to the price action in Soybeans. Farmers are bullish and reluctant to sell and would rather work in the fields. The weekly chart trends are sideways. Production ideas are down due to the extreme weather seen in these areas. It remains generally dry and warm in the Prairies. The Prairies crops are in big trouble now due to previous hot and dry weather.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 885.00, 874.00, and 866.00 November, with resistance at 909.00, 940.00, and 949.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are up with objective of 4700 and 5050 December. Support is at 4470, 4320, and 4200 December, with resistance at 4620, 4680, and 4740 December.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers north and west, otherwise mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal in the west and near to above normal in the east.

Disclaimer: A Subsidiary of Price Holdings, Inc. – a Diversified Financial Services Firm. Member NIBA, NFA Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Investing in ...

more
How did you like this article? Let us know so we can better customize your reading experience.

Comments