Grains Report - Friday, Oct. 15

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat was higher in recovery trading that hit most commodities markets yesterday. USDA showed somewhat bullish Wheat data on Tuesday. The US and Canada have reduced production this year and so do most exporters around the world. Production is less this year in Russia and internal prices have been strong. Dry weather in southern Russia as well as the northern US Great Plains and Canadian Prairies remains a supportive feature in the market although the weather has become old news. The Russian weather has been good for production in northern and western areas but is still trending dry in southern areas and into Kazakhstan. Siberian Spring Wheat conditions have been very good. Europe is expecting top yields in some areas but less yield in others and parts of eastern Europe and northern Russia are expecting strong yields. European quality is a problem due to too much rain in some areas and not enough in others.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get scattered showers and some big rains. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see scattered showers . Temperatures will be above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 713, 706, and 701 December, with resistance at 739, 744, and 749 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 715, 704, and 702 December, with resistance at 739, 748, and 753 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to up with objectives of 966 and 968 December. Support is at 940, 9356, and 929 December, and resistance is at 964, 970, and 976 December.

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RICE
General Comments: Rice closed higher and chart trends are turning up again. USDA increased yield very slightly but cut imports by quite a bit in its latest reports released on Tuesday. USDA also cut demand but ending stocks were reduced anyway. Ideas are that demand is not yet strong enough to take up the supply available to the market. The first crop has been largely harvested in Texas and in Louisiana, but the second crop is still in the field and is getting harvested now. Harvesting is about over in both states now. Mississippi and Arkansas producers are also almost done with the harvest. Yield reports and quality reports have been acceptable to many in Texas and are called good in Louisiana. The reports have been good in both Arkansas and Mississippi
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions or isolated showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to up with objectives of 1408 and 1436 November. Support is at 1377, 1365, and 1352 November, with resistance at 1401, 1408, and 1420 November.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was higher in recovery trading from the selling seen in response to the latest USDA production and supply and demand estimates. Trends turned mixed to down on the daily charts. December was also lower on ideas of solid harvest progress and ideas that farmers might be selling right off the combine. Support came from strong ethanol demand data. USDA showed a slight increase in yields and production and increased ending stocks in the reports released on Tuesday. Demand will be an increasing feature in the trade moving forward as the harvest moves to its halfway point. Initial yield reports have been mixed, with some lower yields reported due to disease but some higher than expected yields reported in western areas. Most of the elevators along the Mississippi are exporting again which is good news for nearby demand. There are a lot of ideas that production and planted and harvested area will be significantly less next year due to the lack of fertilizers available and the cost of production. Oats were higher in recovery trading as the market knows that supplies will be tight due to a drought in the northern Great Plains and Canada. There will not be much in the way of high quality Oats for consumers to buy in the coming year.
Overnight News: Ethanol production was 1.032 million barrels per day last week, from 978,00o barrels the previous week and 937,000 barrels per day last year. Ethanol production used 102.9 million bushels of corn last week, from 97.5 million the previous week and 97.9 million in the same week last year. Marketing year estimated Corn use for the production of Ethanol is 516 million bushels, down 14 million from last year.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to down with objectives of 489 and 488 December. Support is at 507, 504, and 498 December, and resistance is at 520, 523, and 530 December. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 626, 623, and 604 December, and resistance is at 648, 686, and 690 December.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products closed a little higher in recovery trading after a couple of hard down days from the latest USDA reports. The selling came in response to the USDA reports released on Tuesday and as chart patterns remain down. Speculators were the best sellers. USDA greatly increased yields and production and increased ending stocks levels on Tuesday and ideas are that further increases are coming. The weekly charts still show down trends for all three markets, and the daily chart trends are down in Soybeans and Soybean Meal. Chinese demand has been supportive until now as the country was active in the US Soybeans but China is on holiday this week so no sales announcements are expected. Harvest is moving to the half way point for Soybeans and a harvest low might be seen about that time. Gulf port elevators are coming on line and exports are increasing.
Overnight News: Unknown destinations bought 396,000 tons of US Soybeans and China bought 132,000 tons of US Soybeans. USDA also said that 326,700 tons of Soybeans were received for delivery to unknown destinations.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down with objectives of 1183 and 1180 November. Support is at 1184, 1181, and 1152 November, and resistance is at 1231, 1242, and 1258 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are down with no objectives. Support is at 308.00, 305.00, and 302.00 December, and resistance is at 320.00 325.00, and 332.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 5850, 5830, and 5700 December, with resistance at 6060, 6120, and 6220 December.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was higher today on rallies in rival vegetable oils futures and despite slow exports as reported by the private services. Support still comes from ideas that supply and demand are in balance or supplies are short. India was the major importer as the country reduced import taxes. The weekly chart trends are turning up again. Ideas are that Palm Oil got too expensive when compared to the other vegetable oils markets. There are ideas of tight supplies due to labor problems. There are just not enough workers in the fields due to Coronavirus restrictions. Production has also been down to more than offset the export losses so prices have trended higher. Canola closed higher as the harvest is continuing amid good conditions in the Prairies. Farmers are bullish and reluctant to sell and would rather work in the fields. The weekly chart trends are sideways. Production ideas are down due to the extreme weather seen in these areas. It remains generally dry and warm in the Prairies. The Prairies crops are in big trouble now due to previous hot and dry weather.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 892.00, 885.00, and 874.00 November, with resistance at 925.00, 936.00, and 940.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are up with objective of 5950 December. Support is at 4800, 4750, and 4590 December, with resistance at 5040, 5100, and 5160 December.

Disclaimer: A Subsidiary of Price Holdings, Inc. – a Diversified Financial Services Firm. Member NIBA, NFA Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Investing in ...

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