Grains Report - Friday, Nov. 5
WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat closed lower yesterday on follow through selling. Trends are still up in all three markets but the price action earlier this week implies that a few days of correction trading are possible before the uptrend resumes. The weekly export sales report was a little stronger yesterday. Ideas that the US will have good demand for Wheat as the rest of the northern hemisphere is short production this year. Offer volumes are down from both Russia and Europe. Dry weather in southern Russia as well as the northern US Great Plains and Canadian Prairies remains a supportive feature in the market although the weather has become old news. The Russian weather has been good for production in northern and western areas and has recently improved in southern areas and into Kazakhstan in time for the next crop. Siberian Spring Wheat conditions have been very good. Europe is expecting top yields in some areas but less yield in others and parts of eastern Europe and northern Russia are expecting strong yields. European quality is a problem due to too much rain in some areas and not enough in others.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to up with objectives of 807 December. Support is at 763, 745, and 744 December, with resistance at 790, 807, and 812 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to up with objectives of 824 and 854 December. Support is at 772, 768, and 748 December, with resistance at 804, 814, and 818 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 1011, 1008, and 984 December, and resistance is at 1060, 1086, and 1094 December.
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RICE
General Comments: Rice was higher in recovery trading as the recent demand woes are considered to be factored into the price for now. Short term trends have turned mixed on the charts. Weekly chart trends are sideways to down. There was little in the way of news for participants to react to but the weekly export sales report showed weaker demand. Ideas are that demand is not yet strong enough to take up the supply available to the market. The crop has been largely harvested in all states. Yield reports and quality reports have been acceptable to many in Texas and are called good in Louisiana. The reports have been good in both Arkansas and Mississippi. Milling yields have been generally low in both states.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions or isolated showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with no objectives. Support is at 1331, 1301, and 1284 January and resistance is at 1368, 1372, and 1378 January.
CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats both closed lower yesterday in more correction trading. It was a correction trade for the Corn. The export sales report was strong yesterday and the sales pace is currently at or just above the USDA target pace. Corn has relatively tight supplies as farmers are harvesting and not selling. Oats were higher on a lack of supply available to the market from the northern US Great Plains and the Canadian Prairies while Corn is still finding some support from strong ethanol demand. Trends are up on the daily and weekly charts for both markets. Demand will be an increasing feature in the trade moving forward as the harvest moves to completion sometime this month. Initial yield reports have been mixed but good. Most of the elevators along the Mississippi are exporting again which is good news for nearby demand. There are a lot of ideas that production and planted and harvested area will be significantly less next year due to the lack of fertilizers available and the cost of production.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 554, 548, and 540 December, and resistance is at 573, 582, and 586 December. Trends in Oats are up mixed to with objectives of 792 December. Support is at 728, 723, and 708 December, and resistance is at 775, 780, and 786 December.
SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products closed lower yesterday as wire reports indicated that the Brazil Soybean basis was now showing overall prices less than US values to places like China. Soybeans trends are starting to turn down on the daily charts. Harvest has moved well past the half way point for Soybeans and a harvest low might be seen during the second half of the harvest. Reports indicate that farmers are limited sellers at best. Gulf port elevators are coming on line and export sales and exports are increasing. Planting and initial crop development is going very well in Brazil. It has been dry in Argentina but rain has been falling this week and conditions for planting and initial growth are improving.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down with objectives of 1217 and 1177 January. Support is at 1216, 1195, and 1180 January, and resistance is at 1237, 1253, and 1281 January. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to up with objectives of 341.00 and 346.00 December. Support is at 334.00, 328.00, and 323.00 December, and resistance is at 341.00 344.00, and 347.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 5900, 5870, and 5680 December. Support is at 5920, 59850, and 5830 December, with resistance at 6050, 6140, and 6240 December.
CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was closed for a holiday. Futures are still caught in a trading range. Support still comes from ideas that supply and demand are in balance or supplies are short. India was the major importer as the country reduced import taxes. It has also reduced import taxes now for Soybean Oil and Canola Oil and this has caused some demand worries for Palm. The weekly chart trends are up. There are ideas of tight supplies due to labor problems. There are just not enough workers in the fields due to Coronavirus restrictions. Production has also been down to more than offset the export losses so prices have trended higher. Canola closed lower as a correction day finally hit and as the harvest is starting to wind down. Some of the selling was noted in sympathy with Chicago. Farmers are bullish and reluctant to sell because of the sharp reduction in Canola production in Canada this year. The weekly chart trends are up.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are up with objectives of 1058 and 1182 January. Support is at 971.00, 963.00, and 949.00 January, with resistance at 993.00, 1002.00, and 1008.00 January. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 4850, 4740, and 4630 January, with resistance at 5090, 5220, and 5680 January.
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