Grains Report - Friday, Nov. 4

selective focus photo of wreath

Photo by Evi Radauscher on Unsplash
 

Wheat:

General Comments: Wheat markets were mixed to a little lower yesterday on some follow-through selling tied to news that Russia had decided to participate in the Ukraine grain export agreement after all and on news that exports from Ukraine were still going on. A stronger US Dollar and the reduced pace of export sales for the US were bearish. Russia said that Ukraine sent drones out to harm its Black Sea fleet. Ideas are that weak demand can continue due in part to the stronger US Dollar. The demand for US Wheat still needs to show up and right now there is no demand news to help support futures. The US central and southern Great Plains have been too hot and dry although there were some showers in the western Great Plains this week. Conditions are called good for the development of Winter Wheat in the Midwest.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 823, 819, and 808 December, with resistance at 858, 863, and 868 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 923, 915, and 896 December, with resistance at 960, 982, and 991 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down with objectives of 929 and 895 December. Support is at 933, 928, and 907 December, and resistance is at 965, 971, and 993 December.
 

Rice:

General Comments: Rice was near unchanged after the huge run to higher prices seen earlier this week. The price recovery had been remarkable over the past week but some new selling might be found soon as futures and basis are now getting close to being profitable for producers to sell. Some selling was noted as shipping delays caused by the low river levels on the Mississippi and as the harvest pressure continued. Demand in general has been slow for Rice for both exports and domestic uses but export demand improved last week. The weekly charts show that trends are up. The weekly export sales report was strong and featured big sales to the Dominican Republic.
Overnight News: The Delta should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are up with no objectives. Support is at 1744, 1732, and 1725 November and resistance is at 1773, 1793, and 1799 November.
 

Corn And Oats:

General Comments: Corn and Oats closed lower again yesterday and price action the last couple of days have been weak in response to news that Russia had decided to participate after all in the Ukraine grain export program put together by the UN. Russia says that Ukraine sent drones out to its ships in the Black Sea to attack Weak demand for US Corn remains a big problem for the market. The Mississippi river is low due to the dry conditions seen in most of the central parts of the US and there are no forecasts for an improvement soon even with rain in the forecast for today. Barge traffic has been reduced. The cash market has been strong in the Gulf but weak in the Midwest river areas due to the low river levels. The demand side will need to be watched as Corn demand needs to hold to keep lower ending stocks estimates in play. There are increasing concerns about demand with the Chinese economic problems caused by the lockdowns creating the possibility of less demand as South America has much better crops this year to compete with the US for sales. Export demand in general has been slow so far this year and was slow in the weekly export sales report.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 680, 674, and 672 December, and resistance is at 700, 706, and 708 December. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 377, 368, and 347 December, and resistance is at 400, 4010, and 420 December.
 

Soybeans:

General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal were lower on news that the protests in Brazil over the new president are getting shut down and blockades are being cleared. Lula was the president before the last one and has now regained power. There have been protests that he won, mostly by truckers who had benefitted a lot from the policies of the former administration. Lula is also expected to be more environmentally conscious and that might mean fewer Soybeans down the road along with greater demand for Ethanol and other biofuels. Domestic demand should be increasing for Soybeans as the crush spreads got richer and provided crushers with a big profit margin for their crushing Ideas are that Brazil is off to a very good start. The Mississippi river is low due to the dry conditions seen in most of the central parts of the US and there are no forecasts for an improvement soon. Barge traffic has been reduced. The trade is worried about demand due to a lack of Chinese interest caused by the Covid lockdowns there and in part by the stronger US Dollar. Brazil is still offering its old crop Soybeans, and South America as a whole is expected to produce a very big crop later this year for harvest next Spring as the weather outlook is positive for crops. However, the third year of La Nina as predicted by meteorologists could cut the production potential. US production ideas remain strong after mostly good weather in August. There are still Chinese lockdowns and there are fears that China has been importing less as a result. However, Chinese data showed huge imports from all sources in September. President Xi has been elected to a third term in China and has stocked the ruling body with his associates so there are fears that nothing will change soon there.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are up with objectives of 1463 and 1524 January. Support is at 1423, 1409, and 1402 January, and resistance is at 1468, 1485, and 1493 January. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to up\\down with objectives of 400.00, 399.00, and 389.00 December. Support is at 414.00, 407.00, and 404.00 December, and resistance is at 421.00 425.00, and 431.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are up with objectives of 8260 December. Support is at 7360, 7260, and 7240 December, with resistance at 7700, 7820, and 7940 December.
 

Canola And Palm Oil:

General Comments: Palm Oil futures traded higher today along with the price action in Chicago. Ideas are that supply and production will be strong, but demand ideas are now weakening and the market will continue to look to the private data for clues on demand and the direction of the futures market. Demand reports for the current month were stronger yesterday. Canola was again yesterday along with the price action in Chicago Soybean Oil and a weaker Canadian Dollar. The Canola harvest is about over. Reports indicate that domestic demand has been strong due to favorable crush margins. The Canola growing conditions are much improved and production estimates are higher for the year.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to up with objectives of 898.00 and 923.00 January. Support is at 882.00, 872.00, and 858.00 January, with resistance at 904.00, 910.00, and 916.00 January. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 4200, 3970, and 3890 January, with resistance at 4530, 4850, and 5030 January.


More By This Author:

Softs Report - Friday, Nov. 4
Grains Report - Thursday, Nov. 3
Softs Report - Thursday, Nov. 3

Disclaimer: A Subsidiary of Price Holdings, Inc. – a Diversified Financial Services Firm. Member NIBA, NFA Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Investing in ...

more
How did you like this article? Let us know so we can better customize your reading experience.

Comments

Leave a comment to automatically be entered into our contest to win a free Echo Show.