WHEAT

General Comments: Wheat markets were lower yesterday with Chicago May the leader to the down side. Futures have been correcting this week after the strong rally last week based on the war in Ukraine, but the correction should be about over now. Ports are closed in Ukraine and Russian shippers and exporters are not offering in part due to sanctions but mostly due to the war and the chance to lose ships. Plus, Russian internal markets are frozen and it will take some time to get going again. Mr Biden said that the US will embargo Crude Oil or agricultural products trade from the world market but the lack of Russian offers makes an embargo a moot point right now. Higher prices seem likely down the road. Ukrainians have no interest in living under Russian occupation so the war could be deadly and very costly to both sides. Russia and Ukraine are both major Wheat exporters so the Wheat market has been damaged. USDA showed less exports from Black Sea ports this week but did not increase demand for US Wheat.

Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers in northern areas. Temperatures will average near to above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated to scattered showers. Temperatures should average below normal.

Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 1070, 1059, and 985 May, with resistance at 1202, 1285, and 1300 May. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 1041, 1006, and 981 May, with resistance at 1150, 1200, and 1300 May. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down with objectives of 989 May. Support is at 1032, 1018, and 998 May, and resistance is at 1120, 1138, and 1153 May.

Stock photos by Vecteezy

RICE                  

General Comments: Rice was a little higher yesterday. The buying came despite weaker Wheat futures and was due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine as the situation seems to get worse by the day and looks like it will take some time to resolve. The cash market is showing that domestic mill business is around everywhere in good volumes. Producer sales are reported to have been way ahead of average early in the marketing year so stocks on hand in first hands are reported to be lower than normal. USDA made no changes to its long grains supply and demand estimates this week but did lower export demand for milled medium and short grain Rice and increased ending stocks for those classes and for all Rice. It also increased world production estimates due to increased production in India and Thailand.

Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be near to above normal.

Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to down with objectives of 1528 and 1446 May. Support is at 1568, 1548 and 1543 May and resistance is at 1606, 1624, and 1639 May.

CORN AND OATS

General Comments: Corn closed higher as Russia remains bogged down in its war with Ukraine and as South America dropped its production estimates again. The potential loss of Ukraine exports of Corn makes the world situation tighter and could be enough to keep Corn prices trending higher for now. Ukraine might not plant much if any Corn this Summer, too. Russia is also a Corn exporter and no product is moving from either country at this time Crop losses in South America are noted. The summer Corn crop in South America has been hurt by drought, but some rains are reported now. Corn has been slow to react because the bigger crop is the Winter crop in Brazil and that is expected to be large.

Overnight News: Unknown destinations bought 128,900 tons of US Corn.

Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 729, 716, and 691 May, and resistance is at 784, 792, and 804 May. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 649, 626, and 617 May, and resistance is at 683, 697, and 702 May.

SOYBEANS

General Comments: Soybeans and both products were higher as CONAB cut its production estimate to 122 million tons for Brazil. Many had expected production near 150 million tons at the beginning of the year so the downgrade is dramatic. The war has supported Soybeans and world vegetable oils as Russia and Ukraine both export Sunflower Oil. The two countries account for about 80% of all world Sun oil exports. The US is now curbing Russian exports as part of the sanctions but nothing is moving from either country as the companies effectively embargo themselves from doing business in either country. The world situation is still tightening as Brazil and Argentina are getting into the harvest of less Soybeans. Paraguay might import Soybeans this year from Argentina. Higher Soybeans prices are still possible due to the war and the overall supply and demand situation.

Overnight News: China bought 264,000 tons of US new crop Soybeans.

Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1650, 1634, and 1597 May, and resistance is at 1699, 1734, and 1759 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are up wit objectives of 496.00 and 504.00 May. Support is at 473.00, 470.00, and 455.00 May, and resistance is at 490.00 493.00, and 496.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 7300, 7200, and 7000 May, with resistance at 7730, 7860, and 7940 May.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL

General Comments: Palm Oil was sharply lower on Friday on reports of better than expected March production in Malaysia and higher than expected ending stocks for February. Futures had been dramatically higher earlier in the week. Demand in Malaysia could improve soon as Indonesia is expected to keep most Palm Oil at home. Indonesia is once again making moves to cut the availability of Palm Oil for export as it seeks to keep more at home for bio fuels purposes. There are still poor production conditions in Malaysia and Indonesia. Traders are mostly worried about demand from India who has been buying Soybean Oil in the US instead of Palm Oil from Malaysia and Indonesia and is also worried about China and its demand for Palm Oil for bio fuels. Canola was higher along with Chicago and on ideas of reduced Sunflower export potential from Russia and Ukraine due to the war The market is worried about South American production as well.

Overnight News:

Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are up with objectives of 1144.00 and 1244.00 May. Support is at 1100.00, 1085.00, and 1055.00 May, with resistance at 1152.00, 1164.00, and 1176.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 7620 May. Support is at 6660, 6370, and 6170 May, with resistance at 7270, 7400, and 7520 May.