Grains Report - Friday, July 8
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WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were much lower yesterday as funds and other speculators were sellers. The selling ran out and futures recovered but still closed a little lower on the day. The funds fear a deflationary situation here and around the globe and fear that a recession is coming. Demand remains poor for US Wheat. The Winter Wheat harvest is expanding through the Great Plains and Midwest. Trends are down in all three markets. Futures should form a harvest low earlier in the harvest due to the small crop size. Yield reports have been weakening in Kansas despite recent rains that have helped kernel size and test weight. Hot and dry weather is back for this week to southern areas while northern areas have more moderate temperatures and some rains. Northern Plains and Canadian Prairies weather has been improved but is still variable. Europe is too hot and dry and India and Pakistan are both past major heat waves and dry conditions.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions or isolated showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Northern areas should see isolated to scattered showers. Temperatures will average near to below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated to scattered showers. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down with no objectives. Support is at 785, 778, and 770 September, with resistance at 839, 896, and 900 September. Trends in Kansas City are down with no objectives. Support is at 8433, 821, and 801 September, with resistance at 875, 916, and 942 September. Trends in Minneapolis are down with no objectives. Support is at 868, 852, and 845 September, and resistance is at 922, 938, and 965 September.
RICE
General Comments: Rice was higher. The US Dollar was stable amd Crude Oil was higher. USDA said that 2.343 million acres of all Rice were planted and that current stocks are now 56.6 million cwt. Both levels are below those of a year ago and should have been considered neutral to positive for prices. The speculators have been the best sellers lately even with perceived bullish fundamental news as many are worried about a world wide recession. Growing conditions are said to be deteriorating due to hot and dry weather in Texas but Arkansas has had rains recently.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to down with objectives of 1603 and 1543 September. Support is at 1622, 1605, and 1591 September and resistance is at 1663, 1692, and 1696 September.
CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed higher in recovery trading The US Dollar was stable yesterday and Crude Oil was higher. Corn has emerged under what is considered good conditions but it has been hot in the Midwest and many areas have been dry. More moderate temperatures are forecast for the weekend, but it will be mostly dry starting tomorrow. Continued hot and dry weather could hurt yields down the road. Stress could start to develop if the hot and dry weather returns as forecast. Many think the top end of the yield has been taken off the Corn crop due to the delayed planting but others look at the crop condition rating and expect improved yields.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 601, 582, and 577 September, and resistance is at 645, 654, and 657 September. Trends in Oats are mixed to down with objectives of 440 September. Support is at 456, 436, and 421 September, and resistance is at 480, 485, and 493 September.
SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were higher in recovery trading. The US cash market is still running low on Soybeans but there are still renewed Chinese lockdowns. There is less Chinese demand for Soy products due to the lockdowns there and China is starting to renew the lockdowns now as Covid cases have risen in number. Ideas are that purchased could increase as the lockdowns and port closures are finally eased by the government there. China has been a major buyer of US Soybeans this year after a very slow start due to the problems in South America. They are buying for this year and already have booked a large amount of new crop Soybeans to cover future needs. Most of the current buying is for next year.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1461, 1424, and 1414 August, and resistance is at 1497, 1505, and 1531 August. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 420.00, 410.00, and 407.00 July, and resistance is at 431.00 442.00, and 454.00 August. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 6050, 5760, and 5680 August, with resistance at 6260, 6330, and 6400 August 6
CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil closed higher on speculative buying and despite ideas of increasing supplies in Malaysia. Export reports from the private sources are showing the weaker demand this month and this has been the trend for the last few months. Production from Malaysia is expected to increase as well as the Covid lockdowns finally go away and as the weather is good for production. Canola was a litle lower along with other vegetable oils markets. Ideas of poor demand have hit this market as well as the others. The crops are going in the ground and the growing conditions are much improved. It is reported to be very dry and has been cold for planting but better planting weather is coming now as it is now much warmer. There are ideas of reduced Sunflower export potential from Russia and Ukraine. The market is worried about South American production as well. Canada produced a very short crop of Canola last year so supplies are tight.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 824.00, 791.00, and 780.00 November, with resistance at 870.00, 885.00, and 913.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 3710 September. Support is at 3810, 3760, and 3740 September, with resistance at 4400, 4460, and 4490 September.
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