Grains Report - Friday, July 23

WHEAT
General Comments: Winter Wheat markets were sharply lower yesterday on a weak export sales report and on hopes for better rains in the 11 to 15-day forecast. The rains might show up but will generally be too little too late to help Wheat. The market is also hearing about too wet weather in China and Europe and dry conditions in southern Russia and Kazakhstan. It has been very cold in South America and the winter crops are in trouble in Brazil and Paraguay. The bad weather is coming back as hot and dry conditions are in the forecast for the northern Great Plains and the Canadian Prairies for the next couple of weeks. Even so, Minneapolis was lower as correction trading continued there. White Winter Wheat production is also being hurt as both have been impacted by drought and heat this year. Yield reports have generally been good in Winter Wheat areas but there have been mixed results reported in some Great Plains states. Quality has been generally good. Europe has had too much rain and Russia and Kazakhstan have had too little. Kazakhstan has moved to limit Wheat exports for this year. World prices might have bottomed and should start to move higher, supporting Wheat futures markets in the US.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near normal. Northern areas should see mostly isolated showers. Temperatures will be above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 682, 676, and 658 September, with resistance at 700, 718, and 724 September. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 645, 638, and 619 September, with resistance at 674, 686, and 692 September. Trends in Minneapolis are up with no objectives. Support is at 871, 859, and 849 September, and resistance is at 909, 944, and 948 September.

Photo by Sandy Ravaloniaina on Unsplash

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed higher again yesterday on increasing demand ideas. The weekly export sales report was stronger than expected. The market expects smaller production this year due to reduced planted area and some weather extremes seen through the growing season to date. Growing conditions have been mixed at best with many areas getting too much rain. Rice areas have generally been wet. Louisiana and parts of Mississippi were saturated and are still reported to be wetter than desired for strong production and good quality. Warm temperatures are reported in Arkansas and Missouri and the crop progress is improving. However, it is still very wet in Arkansas. Texas has also been wet. Export demand has been disappointing and Asian prices are trending lower.
Overnight News: The Delta should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be near to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are up with objectives of 1366, 1372, and 1398 September. Support is at 1334, 1319, and 1302 September, with resistance at 1358, 1371, and 1380 September.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was lower as the forecasts for 11 to 16 days out changed. The European model has added cooler temperatures and rain to the forecasts for the Northern Plains and western Midwest. All forecasts and models call for hot and dry conditions for the next 10 days and the American model continues the hot and dry weather for the following days. The growing conditions in the US are highly variable and not likely to produce trend line yields. Traders are reducing yield estimates from the USDA report of 179.5 bushels per acre to more like 174 bushels per acre and ideas are that more adverse weather could drive yields lower. No one is talking much about increasing yield estimates right now. Ideas are that Brazil Corn production will be less than 90 million tons so reduced production estimates are expected in coming reports. Oats were a little lower in sympathy with Corn but had a high range close. Canadian Oats areas look to get some rain in the next couple of weeks, but US areas showed mixed conditions in the weekly USDA updates. Longer range forecasts released by NWS call for warmer and drier weather for many important US growing areas this Summer.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 555, 549, and 546 September, and resistance is at 572, 579, and 588 September. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 440, 436, and 424 September, and resistance is at 465, 467, and 470 September.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were generally lower as the outlook for the weather in 11 to 15 days changed. The European model has added cooler temperatures and rain to the forecasts for the Northern Plains and western Midwest. All forecasts and models call for hot and dry conditions for the next 10 days and the American model continues the hot and dry weather for the following days. There are many areas that do not have good Soybeans in the US. Soybeans conditions in central production area are often too wet and have suffered. The weather forecasts changed to wetter and cooler and the crop needs dry conditions and some heat. Minnesota and northern Iowa and the Dakotas have been very hot and dry but Iowa got very beneficial rain last week. \The longer range forecasts from NWS call for warmer and drier than normal conditions for most Soybeans areas of the US.
Overnight News: Mexico bought 100,000 tons of US Soybeans.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down with objectives of 1375 and 1321 August. Support is at 1391, 14382, and 1354 August, and resistance is at 1429, 1450, and 1480 August. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 358.00, 351.00, and 347.00 August, and resistance is at 371.00, 375.00, and 379.00 August. Trends in Soybean Oil mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 6180, 615940, and 5900 August, with resistance at 6630, 6660, and 6820

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil futures were lower on weaker export data for the month to date from the private surveyors. Trends are still up on the daily charts. The private surveyors showed more demand for last month in reports issued last week and ideas are that the stronger demand can continue as India has cut its import taxes. Canola closed lower along with Spring Wheat futures and on demand concerns. Trends are still up longer term, but are mixed short term and weather concerns continue. It remains generally dry and is turning warmer in the Prairies. The showers last week have a chance to be very beneficial as the Prairies crops are in big trouble now due to previous hot and dry weather. Demand has improved.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to down with objectives of 816.00 and 739.00 November. Support is at 844.00, 836.00, and 807.00 November, with resistance at 893.00, 932.00, and 949.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 4340 October. Support is at 4080, 4000, and 3960 October, with resistance at 4220, 4280, and 4340 October.

Disclaimer: A Subsidiary of Price Holdings, Inc. – a Diversified Financial Services Firm. Member NIBA, NFA Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Investing in ...

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