Grains Report - Friday, July 16

WHEAT
General Comments: Winter Wheat markets and Minneapolis Spring Wheat were all higher again as the weather in the northern Great Plains and Canadian Prairies remains bad for production and on better demand ideas. The export sales report was relatively strong and helped push prices in all three markets higher. USDA showed sharply lower Spring Wheat production and much lower ending stocks estimates for All Wheat in its Monday reports. White Winter Wheat production is also being hurt as both have been impacted by drought and heat this year. Yield reports have generally been good in Winter Wheat areas but there have been mixed results reported in some Great Plains states. Quality has been generally good. World prices are expected to bottom soon and start to move higher, supporting Wheat futures markets in the US.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near to below normal. Northern areas should see mostly isolated showers. Temperatures will be near normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers. Temperatures should average above normal. China bought 134,000 tons of US SRW.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are up with objectives of 681 September. Support is at 651, 645, and 631 September, with resistance at 676, 682, and 688 September. Trends in Kansas City are up with objectives of 651 and 681 September. Support is at 619, 613, and 604 September, with resistance at 655, 662, and 669 September. Trends in Minneapolis are up with objectives of 899 September. Support is at 859, 849, and 825 September, and resistance is at 900, 906, and 912 September.

Photo by Denes Kozma on Unsplash

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed a little higher again yesterday in limited volume trading on what appeared to be speculative buying. Growing conditions have been mixed at best with many areas getting too much rain. Rice areas have generally been wet. Louisiana and parts of Mississippi were saturated and are still reported to be wetter than desired for strong production and good quality. Warm temperatures are reported in Arkansas and Missouri and the crop progress is improving. However, it is still very wet in Arkansas. Texas has also been wet.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1298, 1295, and 1289 September, with resistance at 1331, 1340, and 1357 September.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was lower yesterday in correction trading from the big rally the previous session. Traders are reducing yield estimates from the USDA report of 179.5 bushels per acre to more like 174 bushels per acre and ideas are that more adverse weather could drive yields lower. No one is talking much about increasing yield estimates right now. The weather has improved in the last couple of weeks as many dry areas got a little rain. But, forecast outlooks call for warmer and drier conditions for the rest of the month so the benefits of the rains might be limited. Ideas are that Brazil Corn production will be less than 90 million tons so reduced production estimates are expected in coming reports. It is generally cool with showers around in the Midwest. Oats were higher once again. Canadian Oats areas look to get some rain in the next couple of weeks, but US areas showed mixed conditions in the weekly USDA updates. Longer range forecasts released by NWS call for warmer and drier weather for many important US growing areas this Summer.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to up with objectives of 607 and 656 September. Support is at 558, 546, and 540 September, and resistance is at 579, 588, and 598 September. Trends in Oats are up with no objectives. Support is at 424, 403, and 396 September, and resistance is at 444, 452, and 458 September.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal were lower in correction trading, but Soybean Oil moved higher once again. There are many areas that do not have good Soybeans in the US. Soybeans conditions in central production area are often too wet and have suffered. The weather forecasts changed to wetter and cooler and the crop needs dry conditions and some heat . Minnesota and northern Iowa and the Dakotas have been very hot and dry but Iowa got very beneficial rain yesterday. Forecasts call for cooler weather this week in the Midwest and northern Great Plains, and it should generally be wet. Next week should be warmer and drier, and warmer and drier outlooks are offered through at least the end of this month. The longer range forecasts from NWS call for warmer and drier than normal conditions for most Soybeans areas of the US.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up with objectives of 1456, 1471, and 1530 August. Support is at 1418, 1408, and 1382 August, and resistance is at 1461, 1473, and 1480 August. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to up with objectives of 375.00, 388.00, and 390.00 August. Support is at 358.00, 351.00, and 347.00 August, and resistance is at 371.00, 375.00, and 379.00 August. Trends in Soybean Oil are up with objectives of 7090 August. Support is at 6600, 6380, and 6180 August, with resistance at 6800, 7030, and 7100 August.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil futures were higher on demand ideas and ideas of shrinking supplies. Trends are up on the daily charts. The private surveyors showed more demand for last month in reports issued last week and ideas are that the stronger demand can continue as India has cut its import taxes. Canola closed higher. Trends are still up and weather concerns continue strong. Some showers are in the forecast for the Prairies this week and it remains generally dry. The showers have a chance to be very beneficial as the Prairies crops are in big trouble now due to previous hot and dry weather. Demand has improved a little bit with the recently weaker prices.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are up with objectives of 961.00 November. Support is at 872.00, 856.00, and 844.00 November, with resistance at 924.00, 949.00, and 955.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are up with objectives of 4340 October. Support is at 4000, 3930, and 3880 October, with resistance at 4150, 4160, and 4220 October.

Disclaimer: A Subsidiary of Price Holdings, Inc. – a Diversified Financial Services Firm. Member NIBA, NFA Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Investing in ...

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