World food prices rose last month, driven by meat and vegetable oils despite declines in cereal, dairy and sugar prices, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations said.
The FAO’s food price index, which tracks global prices for a basket of staple foods, averaged 130.1 points in July, a 1.6% increase from June and 7.6% higher than a year earlier. The index remains 18.8% below its peak reached in March 2022 after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Meat prices rose 1.2% to a record high, supported by strong U.S. and Chinese import demand for bovine and ovine meats. Poultry prices also saw a slight recovery after top exporter Brazil declared itself free of the bird flu virus, while pig prices fell due to ample supplies and weaker demand in the European Union.
Vegetable-oil prices surged 7.1% from the previous month on palm, soy and sunflower oils, reaching a three-year high. In contrast, rapeseed oil prices declined as new crop supplies arrived in Europe.
Cereal prices fell 0.8% from June, as declining wheat and sorghum prices outweighed increases in maize and barley. Dairy prices edged 0.1% lower on abundant supplies and subdued import demand for butter and milk powders, particularly from Asia. Cheese prices, however, continued to rise, driven by strong demand in Asia and tighter export availability in the EU.
Sugar prices extended their decline for a fifth consecutive month, falling 0.2%. Expectations of a recovery in global production–notably in Brazil, India, and Thailand–weighed on prices, although signs of a rebound in import demand tempered the decline.

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat was slightly higher yesterday in response to the strong weekly export sales report. There was talk tht Russia had a lot of bugs in its Wheat and that made the wheat more difficult to sell.. Ideas of solid harvest progress and good yields are still around and are forcing the selling. Harvest conditions for Winter Wheat appear to be good in the US and Spring Wheat development is currently good. Rains have been good in the northern Great Plains but Canada has been a little too dry for best yield potential and the northern Plains had hot and dry areas earlier in the year. Canada could still produce an average to above average crop. Russia is still being watched for dry weather that has so far hurt yields and Ukraine is watched for the same reason and because of the war that could destroy some fields. Russian Black Sea prices have been firming as producers are not making sales and are looking for higher prices to offset yield losses. Southern hemisphere crops appear to be good. The weekly export sales report showed sales within trade expectations.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down. Support is at 496, 490 and 484 September, with resistance at 526, 532, and 541 September. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down. Support is at 503, 498, and 492 September, with resistance at 549, 552, and 559 September. Trends in Minneapolis are not available.

Image Source: Unsplash

RICE
General Comments Rice was higher yesterday. The weekly export sales report showed just average demand. Chart trends are mixed on the daily charts. The cash market has been slow with low bids from buyers in domestic markets and average or less export demand. New crop harvesting has started in Louisiana with reports of good but not great yields and quality. There is more concern about the crops in Arkansas where it has turned very hot. Milling quality of the old crop Rice remains below industry standards and it takes more Rough Rice to create the grain for sale to stores and exporters. Rice is heading in most growing areas now and harvest has started near the Gulf Coast.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1243, 1237, and 1215 September and resistance is at 1275, 1285, and 1298 September.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was higher yesterday in response to a very strong weekly export sales report. USDA said that over 3.1 million tons of Corn was sold in the most recent weekly period. There still appeared to be speculative selling on widespread record crop production predictions based on additional forecasts for improving weather for the Midwest. A slow warming trend could develop through this weekend and it should be mostly dry. Most of the Midwest has seen adequate or greater precipitation and production ideas are high. Yield estimates near or above 186 bushels per acre are frequently heard, but the surveys of analysts conducted by the wire services pointed to yields near 183 bushels per acre. Demand for Corn in world markets remains strong. Oats were lower but held recent lows on the weekly charts.
Overnight News: Unknown destinations bought 125,000 tons of US Corn.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are down. Support is at 375, 372, and 369 September, and resistance is at 388, 396, and 403 September. Trends in Oats are mixed to down. Support is at 326, 321, and 315 September, and resistance is at 357, 362, and 370 September.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal were higher yesterday and Soybean Oil was a little lower as good growing conditions continue in the Midwest. The weekly export sales report showed good sales of about 1.0 million tons when old crop and new crop sales are combined. Temperatures should turn a little warmer through the weekend. Prices are now reported to be higher in Brazil, but China and other buyers are still buying there for political reasons. Export demand remains less for US Soybeans as China has been taking almost all the export from South America. Trade estimates for the USDA crop reports next week are often at 55 bu/acre or a little higher, but analysts polled by the newswires estimated yields closer to 53 bu/acre.
Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down. Support is at 956, 944, and 932 September, and resistance is at 985, 995, and 1004 September. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 267.00, 263.00, and 260.00 September, and resistance is at 281.00, 285.00, and 291.00 September. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 5290, 5160, and 5030 September, with resistance at 5590, 5660, and 5760 September.

PALM OIL AND CANOLA
General Comments: Palm Oil futures were lower yesterday along with the price action in Chicago. There was talk that India will soon be buying a lot with festivals coming soon. Ideas that current increased production levels mean higher inventories in MPOB monthly data are still around. Canola was higher in part along with Chicago. Trends are mixed to up on the daily charts and on the weekly charts. The weather has generally been dry for crop development in the Prairies with warm and dry weather still around.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 663.00, 660.00, and 654.00 November, with resistance at 695.00, 706.00, and 713.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are up. Support is at 4130, 4080, and 4020 October, with resistance at 4350, 4410, and 4470 October.

More By This Author: