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Gold (XAUUSD) continues to rally as geopolitical tensions and diverging Fed signals drive market uncertainty. Trump's new tariffs, including a sharp copper duty, have rattled global trade and boosted inflation fears. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve remains split on rate cuts, with most officials hinting at action later this year. These developments have weakened the US Dollar and pushed Treasury yields lower. Investors now look to upcoming job data and Fed speeches for policy clarity. Together, these factors are fueling strong demand for gold, reinforcing its role as a safe-haven asset.
 

Gold Prices Rise as US Tariffs and Fed Policy Uncertainty Shake Markets

Gold's rally remains intact despite a complex macroeconomic backdrop. Trump's tariff announcements this week have rattled global markets. The US has imposed new duties on eight minor trade partners, with further penalties expected in August, including a sharp 50% tariff on copper. These measures increase inflation fears and disrupt trade flows.

Markets are now closely watching the Federal Reserve. Minutes from the June FOMC meeting show divided views among policymakers. Although some officials dismissed the idea of immediate cuts, most expect a reduction later in the year. The Fed believes the inflation impact from tariffs may be short-lived, but enough to warrant preemptive action.

This has weakened the US Dollar, which is now in a pullback mode for the second day. Falling Treasury yields, especially after a strong 10-year bond auction, further reduce USD appeal. Investors are also closely monitoring US job data and upcoming speeches by Fed officials for clarity on policy direction. These combined factors, including geopolitical uncertainty, potential Fed cuts, and USD weakness, continue to push gold prices higher.       
 

Gold Bullish Trend Strengthens After Breakout above Major Resistance

The gold chart below shows a clear technical confirmation of the ongoing bullish trend. Since 2018, gold has traded within a well-defined ascending channel. The price has respected both the upper and lower boundaries of this channel over multiple cycles. Key turning points are marked on the chart, showing how gold consistently rebounded from support and faced resistance at the top.

(Click on image to enlarge)

In early 2023, gold touched the lower boundary near $1,800 and began another leg higher. It followed a series of higher lows and higher highs—hallmarks of a bullish structure. The breakout highlighted on the chart occurred above the mid-channel resistance line around late 2024. This breakout signalled the beginning of a stronger, accelerated uptrend.

Following the breakout, gold surged to new highs above $3,500, reinforcing the prevailing bullish sentiment. Despite minor pullbacks, the price has held firmly above both the breakout zone and the channel’s midpoint, signalling sustained strength in the uptrend. The formation of an ascending triangle earlier in the trend also adds to the bullish case, as this pattern typically leads to upward continuation.

Overall, the chart highlights strong technical momentum and a well-defined bullish structure. The breakout above a multi-year range suggests that gold is entering a new phase of expansion. Any dips toward the breakout zone or mid-channel support could be seen as buying opportunities.
 

Conclusion

Gold prices remain well-supported by a mix of fundamental and technical factors. Trade tensions, shifting Fed expectations, and a softer US Dollar create a favourable backdrop for gold. The technical breakout from a long-term ascending channel further strengthens the bullish outlook. As global risks continue to rise, gold may remain a preferred safe-haven asset in the months ahead. 

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