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Gold (XAUUSD) prices rose modestly on Friday as investors reacted to a mix of economic signals. Strong US jobs data briefly lifted the dollar, but concerns over rising debt and trade tensions quickly shifted focus back to gold. President Trump’s new spending bill and tariff threats added to market anxiety. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve's unclear rate outlook and slowing wage growth kept investors cautious. These factors supported gold's safe-haven appeal and maintained its bullish momentum.
 

Gold Gains on Strong Employment Data, Mounting US Debt, and Tariff Fears

Gold prices edged higher on Friday, continuing their modest recovery. The US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report exceeded expectations, sparking a brief rally in the US Dollar (USD). However, that momentum faded quickly as investors shifted focus to broader economic concerns.

Markets turned cautious after President Donald Trump’s "One Big Beautiful Bill" cleared Congress. The bill is projected to add $3.4 trillion to the national debt, raising concerns over the country's long-term fiscal health. This uncertainty supported gold, which is often seen as a hedge during economic instability. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve's outlook on interest rates remains unclear. While strong jobs data reduced the chances of a July rate cut, slower wage growth could leave room for easing later this year. Average Hourly Earnings increased only 0.2% in June, with the annual rate falling to 3.7%.

Adding to market jitters, Trump renewed his push for trade tariffs, stating that partner nations would soon be informed of new tariff rates ahead of the July 9 deadline. This move reignited fears of escalating trade tensions and further boosted demand for safe-haven assets, such as gold. Despite a brief surge in USD strength, gold held firm, supported by persistent geopolitical and fiscal concerns. Despite reduced market activity from the US Independence Day holiday, gold maintains its bullish momentum.
 

Technical Analysis: Ascending Triangle Pattern Signaling Potential Breakout

The gold chart below shows a well-formed ascending triangle pattern on the daily timeframe, indicating a bullish continuation. This pattern typically appears during upward trends and is characterized by a series of higher lows, suggesting steady buying pressure. The formation signals that buyers are gradually building strength, even though a breakout has not yet occurred.

(Click on image to enlarge)

The key resistance area lies between $3,450 and $3,500. Multiple attempts to breach this zone have been unsuccessful, as indicated by the red arrows on the chart. Despite this, the consistent pattern of higher lows suggests that bullish sentiment is growing. The rising trendline connecting the lows from March to July 2025 has acted as a reliable support level. Each dip toward this trendline has attracted buyers, reinforcing strong underlying demand.

Further technical evidence of strength is provided by the inverted curves observed between May and June. These suggest mini base formations, which are a bullish sign of consolidation. If the bulls manage a sustained daily close above $3,450, it could trigger a breakout toward the $3,500 level or higher. Until then, price action remains compressed within the triangle. With supportive fundamentals in place, a bullish breakout appears to be the more probable scenario.
 

Conclusion

Gold price remains firm, supported by a softer USD and rising fiscal and trade concerns. Despite mixed US data, the fundamental backdrop remains favorable for bullish sentiment in gold. The ascending triangle pattern on the chart confirms this outlook, pointing to a potential breakout above $3,450. With geopolitical tensions and debt worries mounting, gold is likely to remain in demand as a safe-haven asset.

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