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Gold remains steady as the market awaits the release of the US CPI data for July. Expectations point to headline CPI at 2.8% and core at 3.0% year-on-year. Softer numbers could prompt the Federal Reserve to consider earlier and deeper rate cuts, weakening the Dollar and boosting gold demand. The extension of the US-China tariff truce and China’s move to ease export controls lifted market sentiment. These moves slowed the dollar’s rebound and supported the price of gold. However, stronger inflation could lift the Dollar and limit gold’s gains. The CPI release will be the key trigger for gold’s next direction.
 

Gold Holds Steady Ahead of US CPI Data and Tariff Truce Extension

Gold remains steady as the market awaits the release of the US CPI data for July. The inflation report is expected to show headline CPI at 2.8% and core at 3.0% year-on-year. Softer inflation data may lead the Federal Reserve to accelerate and deepen rate cuts next year. J.P. Morgan even projects four cuts starting in September. This scenario would weaken the US Dollar and lift gold demand as a non-yielding asset.

Risk sentiment improved after Washington and Beijing extended their tariff truce until November 10. China also eased export controls for 90 days, boosting global trade optimism. These developments limited the US Dollar’s rebound and offered gold some support. Easing geopolitical tensions fueled interest in gold as a safe-haven investment.

However, further upside remains uncertain. Stronger inflation data may boost the Dollar and limit gold’s near-term appeal. This would strengthen the Fed’s case for staying patient on rate cuts. In that case, gold could see a pullback as market participants shift their strategies. The CPI release will serve as the next key driver for gold’s fundamental outlook.
 

Gold’s Multi-Year Uptrend Fueled by Breakouts and Strong Support

The gold chart below shows a steady uptrend over the past two years, marked by consolidation phases and strong breakouts. Each consolidation zone has formed a base for the next rally. Breakouts have consistently pushed prices to higher highs. The trendline support remains intact, guiding the price upward along its bullish path.
 

(Click on image to enlarge)

In 2024, gold consolidated for several weeks before breaking above resistance near $2,100. This breakout opened the door to the $2,400 zone. A similar pattern repeated in mid-2024, with a breakout above $2,500 driving the price toward $2,750. Later in the year, another consolidation led to a breakout in late 2024, pushing prices beyond $3,000. In 2025, the pattern continued as consolidation near $3,150 was followed by a breakout that lifted gold toward $3,400. This behaviour signals strong buying interest during pullbacks. It shows that every breakout occurs along the upward trendline, validating the bullish market structure.

Currently, gold is testing a breakout level again, following a slight recovery from near-weekly lows of $3,341. The market awaits confirmation from the US CPI data before committing to the next move. If gold holds above the trendline, prices could move toward the $3,800–$4,000 range. The dotted trend channel suggests that strong momentum could push gold toward the upper boundary. However, a failure to hold the breakout level may cause prices to retreat back toward $3,200. This would maintain the market's broader uptrend, although it may slow the pace of gains.
 

Conclusion

Gold is positioned at a crucial stage, awaiting the US CPI data to define its next move. Softer inflation could weaken the Dollar and drive prices higher, while stronger figures may trigger a pullback. The technical structure remains bullish, supported by consistent breakouts and firm trendline support. If gold holds above key levels, it could continue to climb, but the real test will come after the new data is released. To receive gold and silver trading signals and premium updates, please subscribe here.

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