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Gold (XAUUSD) holds steady as markets await the delayed core PCE inflation data, a key release that could shape the Federal Reserve’s December policy decision. Despite upward pressure from rising U.S. yields, the metal has maintained its footing. Markets remain highly reactive to macro signals that may shift the rate-cut outlook. A clearer signal from the data will determine whether gold stabilizes further or begins a new move.
 

Gold Awaits Core PCE Report as Yields Rise and Rate Cut Bets Hold

Gold is trading cautiously near $4,200, with upside potential capped by short-term yield strength and macro uncertainty. Market participants are now focused on the delayed release of the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index. This key data point is expected soon and could significantly influence the Fed’s December policy decision. As a result, gold remains sensitive to any signals that could shift expectations toward a confirmed rate cut or a more cautious stance.

Markets continue to price in a nearly 90% chance of a Fed rate cut. However, recent gains in U.S. Treasury yields have temporarily capped gold’s momentum. The rise in yields was fueled by volatility in Japan’s bond market, which briefly unsettled global debt markets. A strong Japanese bond auction later eased concerns, pulling global yields lower and offering support to non-yielding assets like gold.

Additionally, recent labour market data added to the mixed economic backdrop. Jobless claims fell to 191,000, the lowest level since September 2022, pointing to short-term labour market strength. However, Challenger data showed over 71,000 layoffs in November, marking the highest total for that month in more than a year. While this divergence hasn't shifted expectations for a December rate cut, it highlights the fragile state of the economy.  Markets now turn to the upcoming PCE inflation report and University of Michigan sentiment data for final direction ahead of the Fed’s policy decision.
 

Gold Preserves Bullish Structure after Breakout from Ascending Channel

The gold chart below shows a well-defined ascending channel that has guided price action since late 2023. Price consistently respected the upper and lower boundaries of the channel, forming a steady pattern of higher highs and higher lows. Within this structure, gold experienced multiple mid-trend consolidations, each forming a solid base for renewed upside.
 

(Click on image to enlarge)

In recent weeks, gold decisively broke above the channel’s upper boundary, confirming a bullish breakout. This move signaled a shift from steady gains to more aggressive upside potential. The breakout was accompanied by increased volume and firm closes above previous resistance zones, further validating the upward momentum. Following the breakout, price retreated modestly but found support at the breakout zone, now acting as a new floor.

The overall structure remains intact. As long as price stays above the rising red trendline and the former channel’s upper boundary, the broader bullish momentum remains in place. The chart points to potential for continued upside, particularly if macro conditions support a dovish policy shift. A confirmed break above recent highs could pave the way toward the $4,400 to $4,500 zone.
 

Gold Outlook: Data-Driven Move Could Unlock Next Leg Higher

Gold continues to hold above key support as markets await critical inflation and sentiment data. While rising yields are creating short-term pressure, the broader structure remains bullish. Both the technical and macro backdrop still favor a policy easing path. If upcoming data confirms a softer outlook, gold could resume its climb toward the $4,400 to $4,500 zone. 

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