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Gold (XAUUSD) strengthens on rising Fed rate cut expectations and heightened geopolitical risks. Recent comments from Fed officials have shifted market sentiment, lifting the probability of a December cut to 80%. This shift weakened the U.S. Dollar and increased demand for non-yielding assets like gold. At the same time, renewed missile attacks in Ukraine and ongoing unrest in the Middle East have driven safe-haven demand. These macro drivers have positioned gold for continued upside as it approaches key technical breakout levels.
 

Gold Moves Higher on Rate Cut Expectations and Geopolitical Unrest

Gold is gaining strength and moving toward recent highs, supported by growing expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut. Market sentiment shifted sharply following remarks from key Fed officials. John Williams of the New York Fed stated that rate cuts could be implemented without undermining inflation control efforts. Christopher Waller agreed, pointing to signs of labour market softness as a case for easing policy next month.

Following these remarks, the probability of a December rate cut rose to 80%, based on CME data. This shift capped further upside in the U.S. Dollar and helped gold maintain upward momentum. The weaker Dollar reduced the opportunity cost of holding gold, fueling the recent rally.

At the same time, intensifying geopolitical uncertainty has increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Russia’s renewed missile attacks on Kyiv and ongoing instability in the Middle East have driven investors toward safe-haven assets. Despite equity market stability, gold continues to attract flows on escalation risks. Even as markets await fresh U.S. economic data, the underlying macro environment favors further strength in gold.
 

Gold Forms Series of Symmetrical Triangles Pointing to Continued Breakout Potential

The gold chart below shows a clear pattern of recurring symmetrical triangles, each followed by sharp upside breakouts. The first triangle formed in late 2024, marking a prolonged consolidation period before a strong uptrend. Once price broke above the triangle’s upper boundary, momentum accelerated rapidly, leading to a sustained rally.
 

(Click on image to enlarge)

Another symmetrical triangle emerged between April and August 2025. This structure reflected tight compression, with higher lows suggesting bullish pressure. After several attempts, gold broke through the upper resistance, triggering another strong move higher. The breakout was confirmed by clean follow-through buying and rising volume.

Currently, gold appears to be forming a third symmetrical triangle, defined by converging trendlines. Price remains contained within this structure, with no decisive breakout yet. However, its alignment with earlier formations suggests potential for another upward leg if resistance breaks. The setup mirrors prior bullish continuations, highlighting the structural integrity of the long-term trend.
 

Conclusion: Fed Shift and Pattern Repetition Keep Gold in Bullish Trend

Gold continues to show strength as macro conditions and technical patterns align in its favor. Dovish signals from the Federal Reserve and escalating geopolitical risks have fueled safe-haven demand. Meanwhile, the weakening U.S. Dollar has lowered the opportunity cost of holding gold. At the same time, recurring symmetrical triangle formations suggest that gold may be preparing for another breakout. If resistance breaks, the metal could enter a new phase of upside acceleration.

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