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Gold (XAUUSD) is holding steady as Washington’s budget dispute and weak economic data shape the market outlook. The government shutdown reflects unresolved political tensions, while a sharp drop in private-sector jobs supports expectations for more Fed rate cuts. At the same time, improving manufacturing data offered limited relief as the Dollar stayed under pressure. Geopolitical risks, including U.S. support for Ukraine, continue to sustain defensive demand. These factors keep gold positioned as a preferred hedge in uncertain conditions.
 

Gold Holds Firm as Political Dispute and Weak Jobs Data Highlight Fed Cut Outlook

Gold is holding firm as political tensions in Washington draw investor attention. US President Donald Trump’s Republican Party failed to reach an agreement with Democrats on the spending bill, triggering a shutdown. Markets expect only minor fallout, while firm equity benchmarks lessen the appeal of gold as a safe-haven asset.

Meanwhile, the ADP report showed a sharp drop of 32,000 private-sector jobs in September, supporting expectations for further Fed rate cuts. The ISM Manufacturing PMI improved to 49.1, yet the Dollar’s advance was limited by ongoing policy easing expectations. Overall, the data highlighted a slowing economy, keeping gold supported as markets anticipate easier Fed policy ahead.

Moreover, rising geopolitical risks continue to shape the market outlook. The US intends to provide Ukraine with intelligence for long-range strikes on Russian energy infrastructure, while NATO partners are urged to support the move. This sustains safe-haven demand for gold and limits sharper declines in the price. Attention now shifts to Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls, although a shutdown could delay the release and complicate the Fed's policy decisions. In the meantime, remarks from FOMC officials are set to guide short-term moves in gold. These factors keep gold in focus as markets balance geopolitical risks with shifting policy expectations.
 

Gold Confirms Ascending Triangle Breakout with Strong Momentum

The gold chart below shows a classic ascending triangle formation. From April to September, the price repeatedly attempted to break through resistance, yet each move stalled at the same ceiling. Multiple rejection points marked this barrier, while a series of higher lows formed an upward-sloping trendline. In September, gold broke decisively above resistance near 3,460, sparking strong momentum and confirming the bullish setup.
 

(Click on image to enlarge)

After breaking above the resistance, gold surged sharply. The breakout triggered fresh buying momentum and firmly validated the bullish setup. Furthermore, the projected target, based on the triangle’s height, now sits near current levels, showing that gold has nearly fulfilled its measured move. The rally has been sharp, lifting prices into overbought levels, yet the overall structure remains intact. The breakout zone around 3,460 now acts as firm support. Any pullback toward this level is likely to attract new buyers and preserve the bullish setup.

Meanwhile, gold’s recent advance underscores strong follow-through. Momentum indicators show stretched conditions, but strong breakouts often move beyond initial targets. Moreover, the breakout of the ascending triangle has released strong upward momentum, thereby strengthening gold’s broader bullish trend. As long as the price holds above support, the technical outlook continues to favor further gains.
 

Gold Outlook: Fed Signals and Global Tensions Keep Bullish Path Intact

Gold remains steady as markets weigh political risks, weak data, and geopolitical tensions. Equities stay firm, limiting safe-haven demand, but dovish Fed expectations and global uncertainty keep the metal supported. With the breakout structure intact and support levels holding, gold’s broader bullish trend continues to show strength, leaving the outlook pointing toward further gains. 

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