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Gold (XAUUSD) has surged to fresh record highs, extending its decisive upward move. Markets await key U.S. data and Powell’s upcoming speech for policy direction. The sharp rise in gold prompted investors to book gains as market tone grew more defensive. Meanwhile, investors continue to focus on PMI figures and Fed signals to gauge the path of rate cuts. Moreover, geopolitical risks and conflicting messages from the Fed are shaping gold’s next move and keeping it firmly in focus.
 

Gold Surges to Record Highs Ahead of Powell Speech and Services PMI Data

Gold reached historic levels as markets brace for key economic indicators and policy speeches. The recent surge triggered profit-taking among market participants, who turned defensive. However, the rally reflects heightened uncertainty ahead of upcoming U.S. data releases and Federal Reserve commentary.

Meanwhile, upcoming U.S. PMI data may indicate a slowdown in the services sector. Forecasts suggest that the Services PMI may ease to 53.9 in September, down from 54.5 in August. Such soft figures could intensify fears of an economic slowdown and support the case for more cuts. In parallel, markets are closely watching Chair Jerome Powell’s upcoming speech at the Greater Providence Chamber of Commerce event.

In addition, new Fed Governor Stephen Miran recently suggested that interest rates may be set too high for current economic conditions. He warned that delaying rate cuts could put the job market at risk. Meanwhile, other Fed officials, including Bostic, Hammack, and Barkin, called for a cautious approach due to sustained inflation risks. Reports of Russian fighter jets entering Eastern European airspace have sparked renewed geopolitical concerns, despite denials from Moscow. Together, these developments are reinforcing gold’s role as a safe-haven asset as global instability intensifies.
 

Gold Extends Rally Through Consistent Triangle Breakouts

The gold chart below shows a strong technical structure, highlighted by a series of triangle breakouts that have reinforced recent price strength. Since early 2024, gold has followed a consistent pattern of consolidation, with each triangle leading to a clean upward breakout. These brief consolidations have helped solidify the underlying strength of the uptrend.
 

(Click on image to enlarge)

Initially, this breakout sequence began with a triangle that formed between April and July 2024. A decisive move followed in July, establishing a higher support base validated by the orange rising trendline. Following the initial breakout, gold formed another triangle, which produced a strong move in early 2025. This move generated strong upward momentum, pushing prices well beyond the $3,000 mark.

Notably, between April and September 2025, gold formed its most extended triangle as price hovered near record levels, indicating sustained buying interest. Following this consolidation, the breakout occurred with strong follow-through, signalling sustained upside momentum. Additionally, the upward-sloping trendline has served as a reliable support level, with breakouts consistently unfolding around or just above it. Gold’s ongoing rally is eyeing the $3,800 level, with potential to extend beyond $4,000, reflecting solid technical structure and steady demand.
 

Gold Outlook: Momentum Intact as Markets Await Fed Clarity

Gold surged to a record high, driven by bullish momentum, breakout patterns, and rising safe-haven demand. Markets remain focused on economic indicators, central bank guidance, and geopolitical developments to gauge the next move. Gold’s technical structure remains solid, supported by consistent buying interest. Looking ahead, a signal of further easing from Powell or weak data could spark a fresh rally in gold. Overall, the outlook remains favourable as long as the price holds above critical support zones. 

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