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Gold (XAUUSD) is showing renewed strength as tariff tensions and dovish Fed signals fuel demand. Prices continue to consolidate within a tight range, but momentum remains bullish. The U.S. push for higher tariffs on Russian oil imports has revived safe-haven interest. At the same time, markets are pricing in rate cuts due to weak labour data and mixed inflation readings. Together, these factors support the case for a fresh breakout and sustained upside.
 

Gold Maintains Strength despite CPI Rise and Improving Risk Sentiment

Gold has regained ground but continues to consolidate within a tight range. Renewed strength suggests a breakout to new highs may be near. The announcement of potential tariffs sparked defensive positioning and risk aversion. Despite positive signals from equity markets, gold continues to trade with strength.

As reported by the Financial Times, the U.S. is now pushing G7 nations to raise tariffs on Russian oil imports by India and China. The intention is to pressure Moscow into peace talks with Ukraine. These developments have renewed gold’s appeal as a traditional safe-haven. However, concerns are growing that the proposed tariffs could destabilise global trade and energy markets.  

At the same time, Federal Reserve expectations have turned more dovish. Currently, markets assign a 92% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in September. In addition, there is an 8% chance of a deeper 50-point rate cut, based on CME’s FedWatch data. This outlook is backed by soft labour data and significant downward revisions to earlier job figures. Meanwhile, inflation data remains mixed, as August CPI rose 0.4% over the month. Looking ahead, gold’s next move could depend on upcoming U.S. data on economic outlook and inflation.
 

Ascending Triangle Breakouts Reinforce Gold’s Bullish Momentum

The gold chart below shows triangle breakouts that have played a key role in driving prices higher. These formations reflect sustained accumulation and growing buying pressure at higher lows. Each breakout has marked the start of a sharp upward acceleration, confirming strong trend continuation.
 

(Click on image to enlarge)

Initially, an ascending triangle developed between April and August 2024. During this period, gold formed a horizontal resistance near $2,400 while posting a series of higher lows. In September 2024, the breakout occurred, triggering a powerful rally that pushed prices toward the $3,300 level by early 2025. After holding steady near the highs, gold showed signs of forming another triangle pattern.

Subsequently, gold formed another ascending triangle between April and August 2025. Following the same pattern, it established a series of higher lows under a firm resistance level. The breakout above this level confirmed the pattern and launched another strong rally. Since then, gold continues to climb, with momentum still favouring the upside. Importantly, these breakout moves align closely with macro drivers such as tariff tensions, Fed rate-cut expectations, and safe-haven demand. This highlights a clear alignment between technical structure and macro fundamentals.
 

Gold Outlook: Breakout Patterns and Dovish Fed Signals Reinforce Upside Bias

Gold remains well-positioned for further gains as macro and technical signals continue to align. The breakout from key triangle patterns confirms strong underlying momentum. Meanwhile, renewed tariff risks and growing expectations of Fed rate cuts are driving fresh haven demand. Despite short-term consolidation, the broader uptrend remains intact. Investors now await upcoming U.S. data for confirmation, but the path toward record highs remains intact. 

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