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Gold (XAUUSD) is stabilizing after a sharp retreat, as attention shifts to key policy and geopolitical developments. Improving sentiment around U.S.–China trade talks initially pressured the metal, but underlying macro risks and expectations of Fed easing have revived support. Softer inflation data, weak labor signals, and the ongoing U.S. government shutdown have strengthened expectations for further policy easing. Meanwhile, anticipation of the Trump–Xi meeting and the Fed’s upcoming decision continues to drive sentiment and shape gold’s next move.

Gold Holds Ground as Markets Weigh Fed Decision and Global Trade Tensions
 

Gold’s recent decline followed improving sentiment around U.S.–China trade negotiations. Markets responded positively to signs of diplomatic progress ahead of the Trump–Xi APEC meeting, favoring equities. This change in tone pressured gold, which retreated from last week’s highs before finding support. However, underlying macro conditions continue to point toward sustained strength in gold.

Consequently, the U.S. government shutdown has disrupted the regular flow of economic data, prompting markets to rely on alternative sources for guidance. In response, ADP began publishing weekly employment estimates, showing an average of 14,250 job gains over the past month. At the same time, delayed CPI data for September came in softer than expected. Headline inflation rose 0.3% every month, while core inflation held steady at 0.2% month-over-month and 3.0% year-over-year. These developments have strengthened expectations for a more accommodative stance from the Federal Reserve.

Looking ahead, focus now turns to the Fed’s upcoming policy decision. While a 25-basis-point cut is widely expected, markets will closely watch the voting split and Powell’s tone. At the previous meeting, the Fed highlighted a slowing economy, moderating job gains, and stubborn inflation. Fed Governor Stephen Miran had pushed for a larger 50-basis-point cut and may repeat his call for deeper easing. A supportive tone from the Fed may add upward momentum to gold.

Gold Clears Decade-Long Resistance, Completes Cup-and-Handle Formation
 

The gold chart below shows a decisive breakout from a long-term resistance zone. Gold completed a multi-decade cup-and-handle formation, a rare and bullish continuation pattern. The cup formation began at the 2011 peak and gradually carved out a broad base, while the handle developed during the consolidation phase from 2020 to 2024. Each dip along the handle was aggressively bought, forming higher lows and tightening price action near resistance.
 

Subsequently, the breakout took place in 2024 as price moved decisively above the red dashed trendline drawn from the 2011 peak through the handle’s resistance zone. This barrier had repeatedly capped rallies for years, but once cleared, it unleashed a sharp vertical advance. The breakout validated years of accumulation and marked the beginning of a sustained upward cycle. External catalysts, including heightened geopolitical tensions and intensifying trade disputes, further amplified the rally and fueled the explosive upside momentum.

Recent monthly candles show gold advancing steadily, with price marking consecutive record highs. The rally gained momentum in late 2024 and into 2025, driven by rising safe-haven demand. Ongoing factors such as the U.S. government shutdown and persistent global trade tensions have added fuel to the move. Price action remains firmly bullish, with limited overhead resistance. As long as gold holds above the breakout zone around $3,500–$3,600, the broader uptrend remains intact. Any consolidation or pullback is likely to be shallow and short-lived.

Gold cycle top validates timing model and confirms precision exit strategy
 

The chart below shows how cycle-based trading can identify ideal entry and exit points in the gold market. Gold Predictors forecasted a significant high on 21st October (±72 hours), following two clear cycle inversions earlier in the rally. Each inversion marked a strong continuation signal, and the second confirmed bullish momentum into the projected high window.
 

Gold topped exactly within the expected timeframe, validating the cycle model. At that point, all profits were booked and sent to premium members. This method combines time cycles with price action to identify early entries and timely exits.

Gold Outlook: Technical Strength and Macro Catalysts Support Further Gains
 

Gold has regained ground near the $4,000 level after a brief pullback, driven by renewed safe-haven flows and anticipation of a dovish Fed. Despite renewed optimism over trade progress, gold continues to hold above key breakout levels, with broader macro drivers supporting the uptrend. As geopolitical risks grow and technical conditions stay strong, gold is likely to push higher. 

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