Photo by Dmitry Demidko on Unsplash
 

Gold (XAUUSD) continues to trade with a positive bias as the US Dollar eases from recent highs. Traders are adjusting positions ahead of the key US CPI report, which could shape expectations for future rate cuts. Market participants see a strong chance of monetary easing, which supports demand for non-yielding assets. At the same time, global uncertainties and shifting trade policies continue to sustain safe-haven interest in gold. This combination of macro drivers and technical strength is fueling the ongoing bullish trend.
 

Gold Strengthens on Dollar Dip as Investors Await US Inflation Data

The US Dollar has edged lower after reaching a multi-week peak. This pullback is due to traders adjusting their positions ahead of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. The CPI data is expected to show a 2.7% year-over-year rise for June, with the core reading projected at 3.0%. A weaker-than-expected result could increase the likelihood of a rate cut, making gold a more attractive non-yielding asset.

Currently, markets are pricing in a 60% probability of a rate cut by September, with expectations of at least 50 basis points of easing by year-end. If inflation softens, the USD may decline further, providing additional fuel to gold’s rally. However, if the data comes in stronger, the downside reaction may be limited. Ongoing global uncertainties, particularly Trump's aggressive but fluctuating trade policies, continue to support demand for gold as a haven.

Trump recently announced a 50% tariff on copper and issued notices to over 20 countries. Yet, he also hinted at a willingness to reopen trade talks. This dual messaging has kept investors cautious, supporting gold’s resilience. While equity markets show strength on the back of improved risk appetite, traders are waiting for a clear catalyst before committing to larger positions in either direction.
 

Gold Bullish Momentum Builds with Confirmed Breakout Signals

The gold chart below shows strong technical evidence of a bullish trend, driven by major breakout patterns. From 2012 to 2018, gold was confined within a symmetrical triangle, representing a prolonged period of consolidation. This period of sideways movement ended in 2019 with a decisive breakout, signaling the start of a major bull cycle. The breakout was supported by high trading volume and strong momentum, reflecting growing investor confidence in gold.

(Click on image to enlarge)

After the initial breakout, gold entered another consolidation phase that formed an ascending triangle from 2020 to early 2024. This technical pattern is generally bullish, and in this case, it featured a series of higher lows with resistance near $2,080. The price eventually broke above this resistance in 2024, triggering a fresh leg higher. The breakout was further supported by the appearance of inverse head-and-shoulders patterns within the triangle, which are classic reversal signals that often lead to strong upward moves.

Currently, gold is trading above $3,360, significantly higher than the previous resistance levels. This continued price strength confirms the long-term bullish trend, as the market continues to form higher highs and respects earlier breakout levels as support. As long as gold remains above these critical technical zones, the upward trajectory is expected to persist.
 

Conclusion

Gold is maintaining its gains amid a modest pullback in the US Dollar, with traders waiting for the US CPI report to shape expectations around Fed policy. Technical breakouts from symmetrical and ascending triangles show strong bullish momentum. While the macroeconomic environment remains fluid, especially with Trump's shifting trade policy, gold's technical outlook remains strong. Its safe-haven appeal continues to support further upside in the near term.

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