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Gold price declines some 0.20% on Wednesday as US economic data, although mixed, reaffirmes traders’ expectations for a rate cut next week at the Fed's meeting. XAU/USD trades above $4,200 after bouncing off daily highss of $4,240.

Bullion declines after mixed US indicators, as fresh central bank buying reinforces speculation of a December rate cut

Earlier, data from ADP showed that private companies cut jobs in November amid an ongoing economic slowdown, as revealed by the latest reading of the ISM Manufacturing PMI data.

Meanwhile, business activity in the services sector remained stable, reported the ISM. Services businesses account for more than two-thirds of the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and were driven by higher-income households.

This, alongside rumors that the White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett could be the next Fed Chair, succeeding Jerome Powell, had pushed the Greenback to hit its lowest level since October.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the American currency's performance against six other currencies, is down 0.44% to 98.87.

Despite this, Bullion declined for the second consecutive day, but it seems poised to test higher prices after the World Gold Council (WGC) revealed that central banks bought net 53 tons of Gold in October, so far, the strongest month of 2025.

Up next, the US economic schedule will feature Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending November 29, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment.

Daily market movers: Gold underpinned by central bank buying

• ADP data showed private firms cut 32,000 jobs in November, missing estimates of a 10,000 increase and down from October’s 49,000 gain.
• The US ISM Services PMI held steady in November at 52.6, up from 52.4 and surpassing the forecast of 52.1. While expansion continued, orders slowed, employment stayed weak, and input prices remained elevated.
• Money market instruments currently reflect an approximate 85% probability of a 25-basis point rate reduction, with the yield curve indicating 21.2 basis points of cuts at present. For 2026, investor expectations suggest 88.5 basis points of reductions, implying that the federal funds rate may conclude the year at 2.99%.
• After the data, the US 10-year Treasury Note yield is down 2 bps at 4.071%. US real yields — which correlate inversely to Gold prices, fall three basis points, down at 1.831%, a tailwind for Gold prices.
• The WGC reported that central banks resuming purchases in October. Krishan Gopaul, Senior Analyst, EMEA at the WGC said, “Central bank demand for gold remained robust in October, totaling 53t (+36% m/m) and continuing the strong trend seen throughout the year.” He added “Buying remained concentrated among a small number of central banks, led by the National Bank of Poland which became active again during the month.”

Technical analysis: Gold hovers around $4,200 awaiting a catalyst

Gold’s uptrend is intact, but a daily close below $4,200 increases the chances of challenging lower prices. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), although bullish, shifted slightly flat, an indication of consolidation as traders wait for a fresh catalyst.

If XAU/USD rallies past $4,250, it opens the door to test $4,300, ahead of the record high at $4,381. Otherwise, if Gold tumbles below $4,200, the next support is the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,113, ahead of $4,100.

(Click on image to enlarge)

Gold daily chart

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