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Gold (XAUUSD) is under pressure as strong U.S. labor data and a firmer Dollar reduce expectations for near-term Fed easing. Weekly jobless claims fell sharply, lifting the Dollar Index and weighing on gold’s short-term momentum. At the same time, easing geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran have softened demand for defensive assets. This mix of macro factors has limited gold’s upside, though the broader trend remains constructive.
 

Gold Pressured by Strong U.S. Labor Market and Delayed Fed Easing Outlook

Gold’s recent weakness follows a drop in jobless claims, signaling continued labor market strength. Weekly claims fell to 198,000, well below expectations and down from the prior reading. The data lifted the Dollar Index to multi-week highs, pressuring gold, which typically moves in the opposite direction of the U.S. dollar.

This labor strength has also reduced expectations for near-term Federal Reserve easing. According to Zaner Metals, the data supports expectations that the Fed may stay on hold through the first half of the year. A delay in rate cuts supports higher real yields, reducing gold’s appeal as a non-yielding asset. This dynamic remains a central theme in short-term price movements.

Meanwhile, geopolitical risk appears to be easing, softening demand for defensive assets like gold. U.S.–Iran tensions eased after President Trump signaled a softer stance on recent unrest in Iran. Though he warned of “grave consequences” if conditions worsen, his statement reduced immediate fears. With tensions cooling and the Fed sounding cautious, gold has faced limited upside in the short run.
 

Gold Maintains Bullish Channel Structure despite Brief Pullback from Record Highs

The gold chart below shows a well-defined ascending channel that has guided price action since early 2024. The structure reflects a disciplined and steady uptrend, with price consistently respecting both support and resistance boundaries. This channel highlights strong buying interest and long-term accumulation, despite recent short-term weakness.
 

(Click on image to enlarge)

After reaching a record high, gold faced resistance near the upper boundary of its ascending channel. This prompted a short-term pullback, though the price remains well within the broader uptrend. Price action continues to hold in the upper portion of the channel, indicating that bullish momentum is still intact. As long as the structure holds, any decline is likely to attract renewed buying interest.

On the other hand, a break beneath the mid-channel area may increase the risk of a broader correction. Still, any decline toward lower support levels is likely to attract renewed demand, especially if geopolitical risks resurface or the Fed signals a shift toward policy easing. These developments would likely support gold’s long-term bullish structure and offer fresh entry points within the broader uptrend.
 

Gold Outlook: Bullish Trend Intact Despite Short-Term Pressures

Gold remains in a firm uptrend despite short-term weakness driven by strong labor data, a stronger Dollar, and easing geopolitical tensions. While these factors have limited upside in the near term, the technical structure continues to support a bullish outlook. As long as gold holds within its ascending channel, any dip is likely to attract fresh demand, keeping the broader trend intact. 

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