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Gold (XAUUSD) is hovering near record highs as markets brace for key inflation data and rising geopolitical risks. The metal continues to find support from growing policy uncertainty and escalating conflict in the Middle East. A criminal probe into the Federal Reserve Chair has raised fresh doubts over central bank autonomy. At the same time, reports of possible U.S. military action against Iran have intensified safe-haven demand. With the CPI release ahead, gold remains in focus as markets look for clarity on the Fed’s next move.

Gold Gains Strength from Central Bank Concerns and Rising Global Tensions

Gold is holding near record highs and is attempting to extend its upward move. Ongoing concerns about the Federal Reserve’s independence are lending support to the metal. A criminal investigation involving Fed Chair Jerome Powell has raised fresh concerns over the central bank’s autonomy. This cloud of uncertainty is casting doubt on future policy decisions, boosting gold’s appeal as a defensive store of value.

Simultaneously, tensions in the Middle East are on the rise. Reports suggest the U.S. may consider military action against Iran. The potential for escalation has fueled demand for safe-haven assets. Gold typically benefits in such risk-off environments, and recent headlines have helped lift the metal to new highs.

Meanwhile, the upcoming U.S. CPI report has become a key catalyst for gold’s next directional move. Markets expect core CPI to rise 0.3% month-over-month, and 2.7% annually. If inflation exceeds forecasts, the Fed may delay rate cuts, boosting the U.S. dollar and pressuring gold. Conversely, softer readings could revive expectations for a March or April cut, weakening the dollar and pushing gold toward new record highs. The outcome will likely set the tone for gold’s next major move in the days ahead.

Gold Stabilizes Within Ascending Channel as Bullish Momentum Persists

The gold chart below shows a well-defined ascending channel that has guided price action since November. Price has consistently held within this rising structure, respecting both support and resistance levels. Each pullback has attracted fresh buying interest, signaling strong underlying demand.

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Within this structure, gold has consistently formed rounded bottoms during short-term pullbacks. These formations reflect steady accumulation at progressively higher levels, signaling sustained buying interest. The latest rounded base developed near the lower boundary of the channel around $4,320 and helped drive the move to record highs.

Currently, the price is holding above the midline of the ascending channel, maintaining bullish momentum within the structure. After a steep move higher, price action is stabilizing in anticipation of fresh signals. A confirmed breakout above this zone could pave the way toward the channel’s upper boundary. If price fails to clear this level, a pullback toward support near $4,400 may follow.

Gold Outlook: Fed Doubts and Rising Conflict Risks Drive Bullish Case

Gold remains in a strong technical and fundamental position as it consolidates near record highs. The metal continues to draw support from geopolitical tensions, policy uncertainty, and steady buying interest along its rising channel. With the CPI report approaching, the next move will likely depend on how inflation reshapes expectations for Fed policy and the dollar’s direction.

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