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In recent trading sessions, gold has been stuck inside a $100 range between $4,000 and $4,100 with daily closes being somewhere in the upper middle of that range, with long wicks on the candles. Neither the bullish or bearish camp has been in full control of price action, with the recent dollar strength, and equity, bond and crypto market volatility all playing conflicting roles on the metal’s direction. 

What could be the near-term drivers of gold and silver?

One possible source of support for the price of gold is the potential for the Fed to turn decisively dovish again, following the recent hawkish repricing of US rates. On Friday, stocks and gold bounced off their worst levels after the Fed's Williams said that the downside risks to employment had increased and that he’s open to near-term rate cuts. Economic data released on Friday were hardly positive. If further weakness in data is observed this week, then the market will price in more Fed rate cuts and grow in conviction about a December trim.

Whether that will be enough to turn sentiment decidedly remains to be seen. What’s been driving risk off sentiment lately despite strong earnings from Nvidia, are partly driven by stock market valuation concerns, the recent rise in Japanese yields and the lack of any major fresh catalysts. The bond market slump in Japan is a particular area of concern, as that could force carry flows to reverse, and leveraged positions would get hit across the board, whether that is tech stocks, crypto or even gold. We have already seen a big sell-off in BTCUSD and other cryptos, but so far the losses in metals have been contained. But will that change? 

Gold technical analysis and key levels to watch

Gold prices managed to hold above the key $4,000 level last week — a positive sign in what has otherwise been a fairly underwhelming period for price action. Overall, the market remains in consolidation mode: prices are clinging to major support at $4,000 while still carving out a series of lower highs. Even so, downside momentum has been relatively contained so far.

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Key levels to watch now include $4,100 on the upside. This is the first major resistance zone, and notably, gold hasn’t closed above it in the past five trading sessions. It previously acted as support, and the fact that price is struggling beneath it adds a bearish tone. Above that, the next important resistance area sits between $4,145 and $4,160 — a zone that served as significant support before breaking during the recent sell-off. That region remains exposed for a potential retest from below.

On the downside, initial support appears around $4,040, a level tested several times recently without a daily close beneath it. Below that, the crucial $4,000 level remains the main line in the sand. A decisive break under this threshold could trigger further technical selling in the sessions ahead. For now, holding above $4,000 keeps the structure neutral, but a clean move below it would tilt the outlook firmly bearish, potentially opening the door to deeper downside follow-through.

In summary

Gold has become a speculative asset, and much will hinge on the general direction of risk assets. If stocks fall further this week, then gold could also be hurt. After all, the metal has been trending positively with the S&P 500 in recent years.The key risk facing markets is the potential unwinding of yen-funded carry trades with Japanese bond markets falling and yields surging higher recently. This could be particularly bearish for silver in the short-term outlook. 

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