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It’s important to occasionally take a step back and look at one’s investments objectively. Let’s take a moment to review gold and silver’s performance thus far in 2024:

Gold is up 16% so far in 2024, marking its best six-month stretch in recent memory, and has reached new all-time highs priced in USD along the way. Fueled in the first half of the year by strong Central Bank buying, primarily in China and other Eastern countries, the North American market and global ETFs have been more supportive of the yellow metal from April onwards, as Chinese demand began to decline.

Overall geopolitical risks (war, politics, trade tension), coupled with long-awaited interest rate cuts and the effects of inflation, have been catalysts for strong demand. Gold has once again become a popular trade (which is not always the case) and is more apparent in the media these days, bringing new market participants into the mix (got gold?). Costco’s jump into the precious metal fray has also been supportive from both a volume and awareness standpoint.

Although I don’t expect gold to add another 16% in the second half of 2024 (that would bring us to USD $2775/oz), I do expect gold to maintain and surpass its current levels, finishing 2024 in the USD $2500/oz range. Anticipated lower interest rates make gold more attractive compared to interest-bearing assets, adding to its appeal.

Silver’s performance so far in 2024 has been similar, up 17%. Its volatility has been front and center, with daily price swings of 5% at times, in either direction.

Gold’s performance can be credited for a lot of silver’s positive momentum. However, silver’s fundamentals remain strong: diverse industrial applications (electronics, solar, automotive), relatively flat mining output, and improved global economic growth.

Silver enthusiasts have long awaited silver’s revival, and despite not reaching new all-time highs like gold, it did surpass USD $30/oz on multiple occasions, providing hope and renewed interest.

Similarly to gold, the expectation for silver in Q3 and Q4 2024 is to maintain its current levels with continued intra-day volatility to either side. I would not be surprised to see silver close 2024 between USD $32-$35/oz.

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